the theme of this week was already going to be how bad some of the coaching was. i was going to get this started this afternoon but i came across this article and decided to post now. these aren't all of the culprits but there's some bad f*cking coaching in this league right now.
the theme of this week was already going to be how bad some of the coaching was. i was going to get this started this afternoon but i came across this article and decided to post now. these aren't all of the culprits but there's some bad f*cking coaching in this league right now.
Home dog getting the most points is Buffalo this week, and I expect the number to remain the same. I'm all in if Josh Allen gets the nod, different squad with him. If it's Peterman, ugh(pukes) then I'm saying away. We all remember his 52-10 debute last year vs Dago the 6 pic game, 5 in the 1st half. I just don't understand how he's considered an NFL starting QB. 5/18 and 3 sacks on 27yrds? Can't say much about Rivers. 474yrds in a loss. Now do the math and the average bettor says, " slaghter!" I consider myself above average. Gotta check the injury report tomorrow prior to even trying to cap the card.
Home dog getting the most points is Buffalo this week, and I expect the number to remain the same. I'm all in if Josh Allen gets the nod, different squad with him. If it's Peterman, ugh(pukes) then I'm saying away. We all remember his 52-10 debute last year vs Dago the 6 pic game, 5 in the 1st half. I just don't understand how he's considered an NFL starting QB. 5/18 and 3 sacks on 27yrds? Can't say much about Rivers. 474yrds in a loss. Now do the math and the average bettor says, " slaghter!" I consider myself above average. Gotta check the injury report tomorrow prior to even trying to cap the card.
as i alluded to earlier, it really is amazing how bad the coaching was last week. of the games i saw, two of them were probably lost by bad coaching. atlanta's play calling was disgraceful. chicago's playcalling and coaching were worse. there are so many examples from those games but one thing i hate to see is when a team has 3rd and 5 or so and the wr runs a 4 yard pattern. that happened with chciago twice. not necessarily the coaching, but still terrible to happen twice. their first time, chicago has a big lead, it's near mid field, rodgers is out so chicago goes for 4th and short. good call. they run a stupiud run play up the middle and don't get it. ok, fine, kizer is in. he won't hurt chicago. then it happens again later. chicago is scared to go for it this time. if you went for it the first time, why not this time? do these coaches get gunshy and lose all sense of strategy and proabilities. and this time rodgers was in. why are you punting the ball back to rodgers when you should be doing everything you can to keep the ball and close this game. terrible.
i didn't watch either of these games but from what i read, the coaches for houston and dallas were horrible. i'm sure there were others.
runner up for most unprepared coach goes to: KC was on fire and SD made some huge mistakes on offense. but SD looked as unprepared for what KC was doing as possible. i think lynn still thought smith was still QB and this was a short passing offense. what the f*ck did the chargers do all week.
and the award for the absolute worst coaching staff in the nfl right now has to go to detroit. they made the jets and a rokie qb look like montana and the 49ers. if detroit didn't have a preseason or practice last week and just showed up to last night's game like they were going to play sandlot football, i'm not sure it would have gone any differently. until further notice patricia and his crew are the worst coaches in the league. i'm sure someone else will take over that title soon enough though.
ok, on to the first game.
Shrimp @ Cincy -1 the general rule for these games with Pitt/Shrimp/Cincy is that the home team should be about 3. i know people think the shrimp are good but i'm here to tell you they aren't. i'm not even going to look at the stats from last week. don't care. that was a preseason game against a MAC team. Cincy, on the other hand, was solid in a win, also against a bad team, but at least it was on the road and Indy has a few things going for them. I'm not sure Cincy isn't the better team. Better QB, better offense, not as good defense but CIncy has some very good players on that defense. so, i would keep this at 3. but i know people like the shrimp so i'll say cincy -1.5. it's 1. as always, i'm not too concerned about moves and differences under 3. if this was sunday, i'd seriously consider cincy here. but, one, i don't like betting thursday games and two, i wouldn't ever bet a bad coach on thursday night and cincy has a bad coach.
as i alluded to earlier, it really is amazing how bad the coaching was last week. of the games i saw, two of them were probably lost by bad coaching. atlanta's play calling was disgraceful. chicago's playcalling and coaching were worse. there are so many examples from those games but one thing i hate to see is when a team has 3rd and 5 or so and the wr runs a 4 yard pattern. that happened with chciago twice. not necessarily the coaching, but still terrible to happen twice. their first time, chicago has a big lead, it's near mid field, rodgers is out so chicago goes for 4th and short. good call. they run a stupiud run play up the middle and don't get it. ok, fine, kizer is in. he won't hurt chicago. then it happens again later. chicago is scared to go for it this time. if you went for it the first time, why not this time? do these coaches get gunshy and lose all sense of strategy and proabilities. and this time rodgers was in. why are you punting the ball back to rodgers when you should be doing everything you can to keep the ball and close this game. terrible.
i didn't watch either of these games but from what i read, the coaches for houston and dallas were horrible. i'm sure there were others.
runner up for most unprepared coach goes to: KC was on fire and SD made some huge mistakes on offense. but SD looked as unprepared for what KC was doing as possible. i think lynn still thought smith was still QB and this was a short passing offense. what the f*ck did the chargers do all week.
and the award for the absolute worst coaching staff in the nfl right now has to go to detroit. they made the jets and a rokie qb look like montana and the 49ers. if detroit didn't have a preseason or practice last week and just showed up to last night's game like they were going to play sandlot football, i'm not sure it would have gone any differently. until further notice patricia and his crew are the worst coaches in the league. i'm sure someone else will take over that title soon enough though.
ok, on to the first game.
Shrimp @ Cincy -1 the general rule for these games with Pitt/Shrimp/Cincy is that the home team should be about 3. i know people think the shrimp are good but i'm here to tell you they aren't. i'm not even going to look at the stats from last week. don't care. that was a preseason game against a MAC team. Cincy, on the other hand, was solid in a win, also against a bad team, but at least it was on the road and Indy has a few things going for them. I'm not sure Cincy isn't the better team. Better QB, better offense, not as good defense but CIncy has some very good players on that defense. so, i would keep this at 3. but i know people like the shrimp so i'll say cincy -1.5. it's 1. as always, i'm not too concerned about moves and differences under 3. if this was sunday, i'd seriously consider cincy here. but, one, i don't like betting thursday games and two, i wouldn't ever bet a bad coach on thursday night and cincy has a bad coach.
Indy @ Wash -5.5 not sure why the colts were favored last week. they are a horrible team without luck and we didn't know how luck would respond after a serious injury and so much time off. yet, the line assumed he was back to normal. he did ok, but at 39 completions and only 319 yards (8.19 yards/completion), that either tells me luck isn't ready to throw long or the coaches aren't letting him throw long or both. those are bortles numbers if bortles could get the ball near his receivers a lot. so, that's huge concern because if luck isn't making plays, this team is really bad. will they let him do more this week? washington isn't very good on defense so if indy doesn't open it up, that's a huge red flag. but, washington should be able to score at home against this below average indy defense so indy will have to do more than they did last week.
another reason to go against indy last week was their best (on a bad OL) lineman was out adn their RB was out. if they are healthy, we might see a more open and stronger offense. i'll wait to hear about that.
washington really dominated AZ last week but AZ isn't very good. of course, indy may not be much better but i wonder if this line will be inflated after the games last week. people are excited about peterson but peterson is pretty much done. if that's a source of excitement for your team in 2018, your team isn't going anywhere.
anyway, the recurring theme of week 2 is to not overreact after week one. indy had issues but they outgained cincy and played pretty well. washington dominated but they played a terrible team. if indy looked healthier this week, they might make a good play if the line is too high. i'll guess 6.5. well, that's too bad. only 5.5. i guess that's about right given washington was an underdog to AZ last week. i still lean to indy although i'd prefer 6.
Indy @ Wash -5.5 not sure why the colts were favored last week. they are a horrible team without luck and we didn't know how luck would respond after a serious injury and so much time off. yet, the line assumed he was back to normal. he did ok, but at 39 completions and only 319 yards (8.19 yards/completion), that either tells me luck isn't ready to throw long or the coaches aren't letting him throw long or both. those are bortles numbers if bortles could get the ball near his receivers a lot. so, that's huge concern because if luck isn't making plays, this team is really bad. will they let him do more this week? washington isn't very good on defense so if indy doesn't open it up, that's a huge red flag. but, washington should be able to score at home against this below average indy defense so indy will have to do more than they did last week.
another reason to go against indy last week was their best (on a bad OL) lineman was out adn their RB was out. if they are healthy, we might see a more open and stronger offense. i'll wait to hear about that.
washington really dominated AZ last week but AZ isn't very good. of course, indy may not be much better but i wonder if this line will be inflated after the games last week. people are excited about peterson but peterson is pretty much done. if that's a source of excitement for your team in 2018, your team isn't going anywhere.
anyway, the recurring theme of week 2 is to not overreact after week one. indy had issues but they outgained cincy and played pretty well. washington dominated but they played a terrible team. if indy looked healthier this week, they might make a good play if the line is too high. i'll guess 6.5. well, that's too bad. only 5.5. i guess that's about right given washington was an underdog to AZ last week. i still lean to indy although i'd prefer 6.
Carolina @ Atlanta -6 i've already seen this line because this was one of two games i was looking ahead too. i looked ahead because i actually thought atlanta played well against Philly (minus the terrible coaching). Atlanta had the second toughest situation last week playing week one @ the super bowl champions. they did a lot well and easily could have won if the coaching was better. they should be better at home with extra rest. i don't like carolina this weekend. i kind of reached for a bet against them last week and dallas was a complete letdown. carolina dominated that game and it should have been much worse. but carolina lost olsen and williams for a while so a bad OL and a very thin offense got worse last week. carolina will need to score to keep up at atlanta and newton can't do it all. plus atlanta has the speed now to contain newton a little, or should be able to. i'm a little worried about carolina's defense as they did shut dallas down, but atlanta at home is a much more difficult challenge than dallas at home. six is more than i want to give in any of these NO/Atlanta/Carolina games but this is a fair line to me. lean to atlanta.
SD @ Buffalo +7.5 any team that loses that badly to the shrimp should be relegated to the MAC. buffalo should be playing the buffalo bulls this weekend. they are horrible and they are going to be horrible all season. no one let me bet them ever.
SD's defense wasn't much better though. i can't tell if KC is that good on offense or SD just didn't bother coming up with a gameplan or there is something wrong with a defense that is supposed to be one of the best in the league (although bosa being out is a big deal). whatever the problem is, they'll be fine this week. the defense should not ive up much. if they do, there's a real problem. the offense actually did well against a bad KC defense with one exception- the WRs couldn't catch. SD left a couple of TD's on the field that went right through the receivers' hands. these aren't bad receivers. maybe they would have won if that didn't happen, probably not but the receivers really let that team down. in any case, the offense should be fine this week. i don't see how buffalo keeps up. SD got 541 total yards last week and it should have been more. they should be able to do that against a lot of teams. this won't be the same kind of game as last week's shootout but no reason SD can't score high 20's or into the 30's. no way buffalo scores more than 21, right. i'll guess 7.5. right on. i'll lean to SD.
Carolina @ Atlanta -6 i've already seen this line because this was one of two games i was looking ahead too. i looked ahead because i actually thought atlanta played well against Philly (minus the terrible coaching). Atlanta had the second toughest situation last week playing week one @ the super bowl champions. they did a lot well and easily could have won if the coaching was better. they should be better at home with extra rest. i don't like carolina this weekend. i kind of reached for a bet against them last week and dallas was a complete letdown. carolina dominated that game and it should have been much worse. but carolina lost olsen and williams for a while so a bad OL and a very thin offense got worse last week. carolina will need to score to keep up at atlanta and newton can't do it all. plus atlanta has the speed now to contain newton a little, or should be able to. i'm a little worried about carolina's defense as they did shut dallas down, but atlanta at home is a much more difficult challenge than dallas at home. six is more than i want to give in any of these NO/Atlanta/Carolina games but this is a fair line to me. lean to atlanta.
SD @ Buffalo +7.5 any team that loses that badly to the shrimp should be relegated to the MAC. buffalo should be playing the buffalo bulls this weekend. they are horrible and they are going to be horrible all season. no one let me bet them ever.
SD's defense wasn't much better though. i can't tell if KC is that good on offense or SD just didn't bother coming up with a gameplan or there is something wrong with a defense that is supposed to be one of the best in the league (although bosa being out is a big deal). whatever the problem is, they'll be fine this week. the defense should not ive up much. if they do, there's a real problem. the offense actually did well against a bad KC defense with one exception- the WRs couldn't catch. SD left a couple of TD's on the field that went right through the receivers' hands. these aren't bad receivers. maybe they would have won if that didn't happen, probably not but the receivers really let that team down. in any case, the offense should be fine this week. i don't see how buffalo keeps up. SD got 541 total yards last week and it should have been more. they should be able to do that against a lot of teams. this won't be the same kind of game as last week's shootout but no reason SD can't score high 20's or into the 30's. no way buffalo scores more than 21, right. i'll guess 7.5. right on. i'll lean to SD.
KC @ Pitt -5 what's the total for this? 60? and my new system (that i didn't bet) which is simply to bet KC over every week got an easy win. KC was exactly what we thought. great offense, terrible defense. as mentioned, they gave up a ton of yards to SD. but, they didn't care because they did whatever they wanted on offense. pitt has a worse defense than SD, or should, so KC should put up points here too. and Pitt, now at home, should have a much easier time scoring against this defense. they are at home, no myles garrett to worry about and i assume the weather will be much better.
a quick check of the stats for pitt's game. a lot of turnovers and a lot of penalties but also a lot of yards on the road in bad weather. pitt should have an easier time on offense this week.
so who outscores whom? hell if i know. i don't like pitt's defense much but it's still the better defense at home. i'd set this at 4. it's 5. not much of a difference. hard to go against KC against a questionable defense getting points, but mahomes has only done it one game and he'll have some bad games, especially on the road. if he struggles or turns the ball over against good offenses, they'll get too far behind. lean to pitt.
Miami @ NYJ - teams are now 735497 - 0 when i bet them and then decide to buy out. keep an eye on that profitable angle going forward. but, no regrets. i rarely bet on rookie Qb's at this point in the season so, given time to consider, i bought out. that's why i don't usually bet mondays. second thoughts. anyway, don't read too much into the jets win. yes they played well, the offense was mostly very good, the defense was great. but, it's just one game and i think that was more about detroit than NYJ. now, i did like the jets more than many this season. some had them as the second worst team in the league. some had miami there. their coaching isn;t bad and they play hard every week. i just wouldn't expect much of what we saw last night. this is supposed to be a very bad OL and detroit made them look like one of the top units in the league. let's see if they are overvalued at home this week based on one win.
i don't know what to make of miami though. i didn't understand their line last week against a tenn team i like this season yet they were winning the whole game. mariota was out for a good part of the game and gabbert is horrible but miami's stats were solid. basically, i think these teams are about even. slight edge to NYJ. with the jets at home, i'll say it should be 3.5. it's 3. no real line inflation here. no opinion as of now.
KC @ Pitt -5 what's the total for this? 60? and my new system (that i didn't bet) which is simply to bet KC over every week got an easy win. KC was exactly what we thought. great offense, terrible defense. as mentioned, they gave up a ton of yards to SD. but, they didn't care because they did whatever they wanted on offense. pitt has a worse defense than SD, or should, so KC should put up points here too. and Pitt, now at home, should have a much easier time scoring against this defense. they are at home, no myles garrett to worry about and i assume the weather will be much better.
a quick check of the stats for pitt's game. a lot of turnovers and a lot of penalties but also a lot of yards on the road in bad weather. pitt should have an easier time on offense this week.
so who outscores whom? hell if i know. i don't like pitt's defense much but it's still the better defense at home. i'd set this at 4. it's 5. not much of a difference. hard to go against KC against a questionable defense getting points, but mahomes has only done it one game and he'll have some bad games, especially on the road. if he struggles or turns the ball over against good offenses, they'll get too far behind. lean to pitt.
Miami @ NYJ - teams are now 735497 - 0 when i bet them and then decide to buy out. keep an eye on that profitable angle going forward. but, no regrets. i rarely bet on rookie Qb's at this point in the season so, given time to consider, i bought out. that's why i don't usually bet mondays. second thoughts. anyway, don't read too much into the jets win. yes they played well, the offense was mostly very good, the defense was great. but, it's just one game and i think that was more about detroit than NYJ. now, i did like the jets more than many this season. some had them as the second worst team in the league. some had miami there. their coaching isn;t bad and they play hard every week. i just wouldn't expect much of what we saw last night. this is supposed to be a very bad OL and detroit made them look like one of the top units in the league. let's see if they are overvalued at home this week based on one win.
i don't know what to make of miami though. i didn't understand their line last week against a tenn team i like this season yet they were winning the whole game. mariota was out for a good part of the game and gabbert is horrible but miami's stats were solid. basically, i think these teams are about even. slight edge to NYJ. with the jets at home, i'll say it should be 3.5. it's 3. no real line inflation here. no opinion as of now.
Philly @ TB +3 very interesting matchup after last week. the second most unpredictable game was the TB/NO game. i was looking to bet TB last week but wanted double digits. another great call laying off that one. but who saw TB scoring 40+ with fitzgerald. his numbers were ridiculous. the running game wasn't great but they didn't need it. the defense was terrible but this was NO at home and it was a shootout. i'd guess some of that came during garbage time.
obviously, TB isn't that great and they won't do anything like that most week. i also doubt this line is much different than it would have been if TB lost by 10 last week because no one is buying TB as some powerhouse offense. plus, even if this is a much improved offense, they won't do that against philly.
i assume foles is starting again. that's not good but he should have it easier than playing against atlanta. i hate to bet foles as a road favorite. he could have a meltdown at any moment. i'll guess 5. interesting. just 3. i'll assume that has more to do with foles on the road than people buying TB as a legitimate contender. philly is so well coached and has a very good defense. i think they'll being TB's offense down to earth. i just don't want to bet the road favorite here. no opinion yet.
Cleveland @ NO -8.5 everyone will be looking for a bounceback here for NO. this line is going to be big. hue is going to be lining peppers up 50 yards from the line of scrimmage. he's going to start the play in the stands when NO is in cleveland territory. the interesting thing about NO is their defense was so bad over the years, we would never bet them as big favorites because they couldn't be trusted to keep the oppnent's score down. and then last season, they found a defense somehow and improved significantly. and then there was last week. so, was the aberration last season or last week? i'm not betting NO as large favorites without knowing for sure.
as for cleveland, they didn't lose, but they embarrassed themselves by not winning when they were +5 in turnovers. how do you lose when you win the TO battle 6-1? obviously, brees isn't turning the ball over 6 times at home. NO has a great OL and should be able to deal with garret and the cleveland pass rush. NO should get their points. but maybe cleveland can too. they ran well last week and taylor isn't terrible. i''ll say people assume cleveland was lucky to stay with pitt due to turnovers and NO is going to bounce back and this line is 10.5. wow, i'm pretty far off. maybe people are worried about this defense. they should be. i think that unknown is enough for me to avoid it.
AZ @ Rams -13 AZ, statswise, was really bad and wash does not have a great defense. maybe i'm missing something (did anyone watch that game) but if AZ can't move the ball at home against washington, they are in big trouble. and washington, whose offense is not nearly as good as the rams', lit up AZ. that's a bad sign for this game. the rams are very good and don't have many weaknesses. they should be able to score 30 here. i do think AZ has a better offense than what they showed last week. bradford isn't horrible and johnson is great. maybe a slight letdown for the rams after a huge MNF opener with gruden's first game back in oakland? hard to say. i'll guess 13. and it's 13. it's a fair line. the rams cover if they are fully interested. if not or AZ gets an offense going at some point, which they should, they could keep it to 10 or so. i'm not betting against the rams at home against a bad team.
Philly @ TB +3 very interesting matchup after last week. the second most unpredictable game was the TB/NO game. i was looking to bet TB last week but wanted double digits. another great call laying off that one. but who saw TB scoring 40+ with fitzgerald. his numbers were ridiculous. the running game wasn't great but they didn't need it. the defense was terrible but this was NO at home and it was a shootout. i'd guess some of that came during garbage time.
obviously, TB isn't that great and they won't do anything like that most week. i also doubt this line is much different than it would have been if TB lost by 10 last week because no one is buying TB as some powerhouse offense. plus, even if this is a much improved offense, they won't do that against philly.
i assume foles is starting again. that's not good but he should have it easier than playing against atlanta. i hate to bet foles as a road favorite. he could have a meltdown at any moment. i'll guess 5. interesting. just 3. i'll assume that has more to do with foles on the road than people buying TB as a legitimate contender. philly is so well coached and has a very good defense. i think they'll being TB's offense down to earth. i just don't want to bet the road favorite here. no opinion yet.
Cleveland @ NO -8.5 everyone will be looking for a bounceback here for NO. this line is going to be big. hue is going to be lining peppers up 50 yards from the line of scrimmage. he's going to start the play in the stands when NO is in cleveland territory. the interesting thing about NO is their defense was so bad over the years, we would never bet them as big favorites because they couldn't be trusted to keep the oppnent's score down. and then last season, they found a defense somehow and improved significantly. and then there was last week. so, was the aberration last season or last week? i'm not betting NO as large favorites without knowing for sure.
as for cleveland, they didn't lose, but they embarrassed themselves by not winning when they were +5 in turnovers. how do you lose when you win the TO battle 6-1? obviously, brees isn't turning the ball over 6 times at home. NO has a great OL and should be able to deal with garret and the cleveland pass rush. NO should get their points. but maybe cleveland can too. they ran well last week and taylor isn't terrible. i''ll say people assume cleveland was lucky to stay with pitt due to turnovers and NO is going to bounce back and this line is 10.5. wow, i'm pretty far off. maybe people are worried about this defense. they should be. i think that unknown is enough for me to avoid it.
AZ @ Rams -13 AZ, statswise, was really bad and wash does not have a great defense. maybe i'm missing something (did anyone watch that game) but if AZ can't move the ball at home against washington, they are in big trouble. and washington, whose offense is not nearly as good as the rams', lit up AZ. that's a bad sign for this game. the rams are very good and don't have many weaknesses. they should be able to score 30 here. i do think AZ has a better offense than what they showed last week. bradford isn't horrible and johnson is great. maybe a slight letdown for the rams after a huge MNF opener with gruden's first game back in oakland? hard to say. i'll guess 13. and it's 13. it's a fair line. the rams cover if they are fully interested. if not or AZ gets an offense going at some point, which they should, they could keep it to 10 or so. i'm not betting against the rams at home against a bad team.
Detroit @ SF -5.5 this didn't work out the way i hoped. one (dumb) reason i got off the jets was because, after watching SF @ Minn i was hoping detroit would win as expected and then i could gt SF at 3 here. obviously, that's out the window. i already mentioned detroit. that was about the worst performance imaginable- offense, defense, and special teams were all shite. and coaching was the worst part. but don't expect that to happen again. detroit has issues but they aren't any worse than usual. they should be better once they figure out how to use their new RB. so, normally, i would take detroit the week after a game like that.
but if atlanta had the second hardest situation last week, SF had the first. taking your relatively new QB and offense to probably the best defense in the league in week one on the road is brutal. and while the numbers weren't great, i thought garroppolo and SF did well. first, the kittle dropped an easy long td pass. and morris fumbled at the goal line. if either of those go SF's way, they probably cover and have a chance to win. garroppolo had some misses but he also had some great throws and he lost some players on offense along the way. so, i originally planned to take SF this week since i felt they played much better than the score and stats indicate. but can i take them after such a terrible performance by detroit? maybe. detroit was so bad, i wonder if detroit can fix those problems going on the road to a well coached team that will play hard and knows it needs to win to keep up with the rams who will be 2-0 after this week. i was hoping for 3. i'll guess 4.damn 5.5. that's a lot if you erase last week's game, which i actually think you should do when teams have extreme games in week one like detroit did (and the jets), this line would be 3/3.5. not that 5 is a key number but the value is not with SF here.
NE @ Jax +2 of course a key here is whether fournette plays. i wouldn't bet on jax here without knowing that since he's such a key to their offense. RB is usually a minor concern to me, or irrelevant, but since Jax treats their QB like a pop warner qb, i wouldn't want to take such a limited offense against belichik. Jax did exactly what we expected last week. Bortles was at less than 10 yards/completion. that's probably where they want him when they can. 28 total running plays. that's good for a team that lost their key RB. the defense got a score. basically, the exact conservative, run the ball, win with defense game we expected. the defense shut NYG down for the most part.
can they do that this week? maybe. when brady struggles, he struggles against good pass rushes. this DL is as good as any. houston has a garbage secondary but jax definitely doesn't so NE's weak WR corps might get exposed here. i expect Jax defense to have another very good game and cause trouble for NE with those receivers and their rookie RB out. the question then, if can bortles do enough to win. i say probably yes if fournette plays. i don't think NE's defense is anything special so if Jax plays the same kind of game and they can run the ball and the defense does what they can do, Jax has a good chance to win.
i actually think jax is the better team. but the brady vs. bortles factor and belichik changes things. i'll stil to it and say this line should be Jax -2 with fournette. healthy. do we know his status yet it's NE -2. i guess we'll have to wait on fournette to see where this line falls and whether Jax is a good play or not.
Detroit @ SF -5.5 this didn't work out the way i hoped. one (dumb) reason i got off the jets was because, after watching SF @ Minn i was hoping detroit would win as expected and then i could gt SF at 3 here. obviously, that's out the window. i already mentioned detroit. that was about the worst performance imaginable- offense, defense, and special teams were all shite. and coaching was the worst part. but don't expect that to happen again. detroit has issues but they aren't any worse than usual. they should be better once they figure out how to use their new RB. so, normally, i would take detroit the week after a game like that.
but if atlanta had the second hardest situation last week, SF had the first. taking your relatively new QB and offense to probably the best defense in the league in week one on the road is brutal. and while the numbers weren't great, i thought garroppolo and SF did well. first, the kittle dropped an easy long td pass. and morris fumbled at the goal line. if either of those go SF's way, they probably cover and have a chance to win. garroppolo had some misses but he also had some great throws and he lost some players on offense along the way. so, i originally planned to take SF this week since i felt they played much better than the score and stats indicate. but can i take them after such a terrible performance by detroit? maybe. detroit was so bad, i wonder if detroit can fix those problems going on the road to a well coached team that will play hard and knows it needs to win to keep up with the rams who will be 2-0 after this week. i was hoping for 3. i'll guess 4.damn 5.5. that's a lot if you erase last week's game, which i actually think you should do when teams have extreme games in week one like detroit did (and the jets), this line would be 3/3.5. not that 5 is a key number but the value is not with SF here.
NE @ Jax +2 of course a key here is whether fournette plays. i wouldn't bet on jax here without knowing that since he's such a key to their offense. RB is usually a minor concern to me, or irrelevant, but since Jax treats their QB like a pop warner qb, i wouldn't want to take such a limited offense against belichik. Jax did exactly what we expected last week. Bortles was at less than 10 yards/completion. that's probably where they want him when they can. 28 total running plays. that's good for a team that lost their key RB. the defense got a score. basically, the exact conservative, run the ball, win with defense game we expected. the defense shut NYG down for the most part.
can they do that this week? maybe. when brady struggles, he struggles against good pass rushes. this DL is as good as any. houston has a garbage secondary but jax definitely doesn't so NE's weak WR corps might get exposed here. i expect Jax defense to have another very good game and cause trouble for NE with those receivers and their rookie RB out. the question then, if can bortles do enough to win. i say probably yes if fournette plays. i don't think NE's defense is anything special so if Jax plays the same kind of game and they can run the ball and the defense does what they can do, Jax has a good chance to win.
i actually think jax is the better team. but the brady vs. bortles factor and belichik changes things. i'll stil to it and say this line should be Jax -2 with fournette. healthy. do we know his status yet it's NE -2. i guess we'll have to wait on fournette to see where this line falls and whether Jax is a good play or not.
Oak @ Denver -6 i said oakland is a horrible team and last night
was the first game that basked up my assessment. basically, this team
has a very good OL and everything else is shite. carr is good and bad
but with an old RB and a 31 year old TE being their best receiver, he'll
be more bad than good. and the defense is atrocious. i'm sure the
coaching will be bad but we'll find out more about that as the season
goes.
denver had kind of a strange game.
the offense was better than expected although seattle on the road isn't a
tough matchup. but the pass defense (despite 6 sacks) gave up a lot of
plays. maybe that was just russell wilson magic. but if this team
doesn't play much better defense against better offenses, they are in
trouble. i'm a little concerned that the strength of denver's defense,
the pass rush, won't do as well this week because the one area oakland
is strong is OL. seattle's OL is garbage. so if Oakland can contain
miller and chubb, carr can have a good day and they can outscore an
offense run by keenum. denver is going to be one of those teams where
i'll probably say this team should not be favored by this much over
anyone. like i do with the shrimp every now and then. their offense
doesn't look great on paper and their defense has some issues outside of
the DL. anyway, i like this matchup better for oakland if the line is
right. i'll guess 4.5. it's 6. basically the same since games don't
end with a 5 point difference. slight lean to oakland. i hate this
team but denver as a 6 point favorite is highly questionable, especially
in the division.
NYG @ Dallas -3 what a poor
display by dallas last week. next to nothing on offense. dak was below
average and their receivers were garbage. we knew that. but that OL and
elliott should have kept them in a game like that. but they were bad
as well. i read that the OL was surprisingly bad. was that just one bad
game or is that unit going downhill with current injuries and recent
injuries and age? if they can't play much better at home against the
giants who don't have a good defense, that will tell us much more. i'm
going to assume that was just one bad week one game. dallas OL and
running game should be much better. the passing game will always be
terrible but if elliott and the OL beat up this defense, i should be
fine at home.
dallas's defense is a
concern. they gave up almost 300 yards to a team with 2 good players on
offense and a terrible OL. but, maybe it'll be better at home against
Eli. newton ran all over dallas. obviously, Eli doesn't present that
kind of challenge. people love to talk about barkely and odell, but
with Eli as the Qb and an OL that isn't very good, that's just not a
consistent threat when there isn't much else on this team. they'll have
huge games and win games for them, but i'm not going to use a rookie RB
and a gret WR with a bad QB as consistent reason to bt on the giants
i'll guess 3.5. it's 3. i actually think this would be 3.5. if dallas
wasn't so bad last week. but don't overreact to week one. if this was a
week one game, i don't think this would be 3. so i see value with
dallas and lean to them.
Oak @ Denver -6 i said oakland is a horrible team and last night
was the first game that basked up my assessment. basically, this team
has a very good OL and everything else is shite. carr is good and bad
but with an old RB and a 31 year old TE being their best receiver, he'll
be more bad than good. and the defense is atrocious. i'm sure the
coaching will be bad but we'll find out more about that as the season
goes.
denver had kind of a strange game.
the offense was better than expected although seattle on the road isn't a
tough matchup. but the pass defense (despite 6 sacks) gave up a lot of
plays. maybe that was just russell wilson magic. but if this team
doesn't play much better defense against better offenses, they are in
trouble. i'm a little concerned that the strength of denver's defense,
the pass rush, won't do as well this week because the one area oakland
is strong is OL. seattle's OL is garbage. so if Oakland can contain
miller and chubb, carr can have a good day and they can outscore an
offense run by keenum. denver is going to be one of those teams where
i'll probably say this team should not be favored by this much over
anyone. like i do with the shrimp every now and then. their offense
doesn't look great on paper and their defense has some issues outside of
the DL. anyway, i like this matchup better for oakland if the line is
right. i'll guess 4.5. it's 6. basically the same since games don't
end with a 5 point difference. slight lean to oakland. i hate this
team but denver as a 6 point favorite is highly questionable, especially
in the division.
NYG @ Dallas -3 what a poor
display by dallas last week. next to nothing on offense. dak was below
average and their receivers were garbage. we knew that. but that OL and
elliott should have kept them in a game like that. but they were bad
as well. i read that the OL was surprisingly bad. was that just one bad
game or is that unit going downhill with current injuries and recent
injuries and age? if they can't play much better at home against the
giants who don't have a good defense, that will tell us much more. i'm
going to assume that was just one bad week one game. dallas OL and
running game should be much better. the passing game will always be
terrible but if elliott and the OL beat up this defense, i should be
fine at home.
dallas's defense is a
concern. they gave up almost 300 yards to a team with 2 good players on
offense and a terrible OL. but, maybe it'll be better at home against
Eli. newton ran all over dallas. obviously, Eli doesn't present that
kind of challenge. people love to talk about barkely and odell, but
with Eli as the Qb and an OL that isn't very good, that's just not a
consistent threat when there isn't much else on this team. they'll have
huge games and win games for them, but i'm not going to use a rookie RB
and a gret WR with a bad QB as consistent reason to bt on the giants
i'll guess 3.5. it's 3. i actually think this would be 3.5. if dallas
wasn't so bad last week. but don't overreact to week one. if this was a
week one game, i don't think this would be 3. so i see value with
dallas and lean to them.
Seattle @ Chicago -3.5 a team i love vs. a team i hate. but i'm scared to bet monday games. what to do? i was ready to write in chicago as the nfc champs halfway through that game and then at the end i'm wondering if chicago can come back from that. it really was a huge game for chicago. minn is going to be grea. GB sucks but with rodgers, they can beat anyone. it would have been huge for chicago to steal one in GB. and they choked. the coaches choked. but we did se this team has serious talent. if they can shake that off, they should win easily here. wilson is very talented but with mack and speed at LB, chicago should be able to contain him. seattle lost another WR last week. this is the closest thing to a one man offense. like GB. and the seattle defense isn't very good. chicago is just the better team at home in a big game since they are in trouble if they go down 0-2 in this division after already losing to GB. i'll say 3. it's 3.5. not a surprise. people saw how good they looked against GB for much of the game and that was legitimate. people are coming to terms with seattle being bad. i probably won't play it but chcago should win and cover.
Seattle @ Chicago -3.5 a team i love vs. a team i hate. but i'm scared to bet monday games. what to do? i was ready to write in chicago as the nfc champs halfway through that game and then at the end i'm wondering if chicago can come back from that. it really was a huge game for chicago. minn is going to be grea. GB sucks but with rodgers, they can beat anyone. it would have been huge for chicago to steal one in GB. and they choked. the coaches choked. but we did se this team has serious talent. if they can shake that off, they should win easily here. wilson is very talented but with mack and speed at LB, chicago should be able to contain him. seattle lost another WR last week. this is the closest thing to a one man offense. like GB. and the seattle defense isn't very good. chicago is just the better team at home in a big game since they are in trouble if they go down 0-2 in this division after already losing to GB. i'll say 3. it's 3.5. not a surprise. people saw how good they looked against GB for much of the game and that was legitimate. people are coming to terms with seattle being bad. i probably won't play it but chcago should win and cover.
Minn @ GB + the announcers are so bad. they love embellishing these narratives with players like rodgers and presuming he got some terrible injury and then comes back and wins it on one leg. that was a great game for sure and rodgers is the best ever, but we don't need to suffer through annoying announcers as we watch it. my point is, i'm guessing rodgers is fine. i'm sure it hurt but that didn't look like an acl injury and hopefully he's back to normal this week. GB is horrible without him and would have little chance in a game like this. with him, they are still bad but he's so good, he can obviously carry a team. but this is why we've been rcommending GB futres unders. t eteam sucks around him so he can only take them so far. and if he does get hurt, season over.
minnesota looks as good as we expected. they are so strong almost everywhere. their one weakness, and it's a big one, is the OL, and it showed last week. SF got a good pass rush in the first half and caused problems for cousins. but, unlike chicago, and GB, minn is very well coached and made adjustments. they went to shorter passes and used cook out of the backfield. but, that minn OL could be the downfall of this team this season. no prediction until we're sure about rodgers but i don't think GB can handle this team either way.
Houston @ Tenn - one of our other predictions that looked good last week is that watson (and houston) are wildly overrated. watson played a few games and the offense went nuts but it looked like an aberration and things tend to change for young QB's after teams have had an offseason to study you and focus on you. i didn;t watch the game but it looks like NE's average defense had no problems with watson. and NE with some white dude at RB and a bunch of WR's no one has ever heard of had their way with a houston defense that is terrible in the secondary and pretty bad outside of the DL, which is very good when healthy. so, this houston team has serious holes and is not as good on offense as people assume. and then the injuries are coming soon, i'm sure.
Tenn let me down last week. i didn't bet it because i didn't get the line, but i'm surprised miami had that much success on offense. miami has a guy at RB whose as old as shrimp and almost as slow. i guess we can forgive tenn's offense since mariota got hurt but miami is a team tenn should beat. i'll chalk that up to a bad week one game and the mariota injury. assuming he's healthy, i have Tenn as the better team and the better defense at home. if he's healthy, i'll say the line should be 3 but they'll probablt set it at 2 since houston is overrated.
ok, i think that's everyone. no early plays yet but that could change.
Minn @ GB + the announcers are so bad. they love embellishing these narratives with players like rodgers and presuming he got some terrible injury and then comes back and wins it on one leg. that was a great game for sure and rodgers is the best ever, but we don't need to suffer through annoying announcers as we watch it. my point is, i'm guessing rodgers is fine. i'm sure it hurt but that didn't look like an acl injury and hopefully he's back to normal this week. GB is horrible without him and would have little chance in a game like this. with him, they are still bad but he's so good, he can obviously carry a team. but this is why we've been rcommending GB futres unders. t eteam sucks around him so he can only take them so far. and if he does get hurt, season over.
minnesota looks as good as we expected. they are so strong almost everywhere. their one weakness, and it's a big one, is the OL, and it showed last week. SF got a good pass rush in the first half and caused problems for cousins. but, unlike chicago, and GB, minn is very well coached and made adjustments. they went to shorter passes and used cook out of the backfield. but, that minn OL could be the downfall of this team this season. no prediction until we're sure about rodgers but i don't think GB can handle this team either way.
Houston @ Tenn - one of our other predictions that looked good last week is that watson (and houston) are wildly overrated. watson played a few games and the offense went nuts but it looked like an aberration and things tend to change for young QB's after teams have had an offseason to study you and focus on you. i didn;t watch the game but it looks like NE's average defense had no problems with watson. and NE with some white dude at RB and a bunch of WR's no one has ever heard of had their way with a houston defense that is terrible in the secondary and pretty bad outside of the DL, which is very good when healthy. so, this houston team has serious holes and is not as good on offense as people assume. and then the injuries are coming soon, i'm sure.
Tenn let me down last week. i didn't bet it because i didn't get the line, but i'm surprised miami had that much success on offense. miami has a guy at RB whose as old as shrimp and almost as slow. i guess we can forgive tenn's offense since mariota got hurt but miami is a team tenn should beat. i'll chalk that up to a bad week one game and the mariota injury. assuming he's healthy, i have Tenn as the better team and the better defense at home. if he's healthy, i'll say the line should be 3 but they'll probablt set it at 2 since houston is overrated.
ok, i think that's everyone. no early plays yet but that could change.
Different opinion on Miami. Even tho the lighting delay and lose of Mariota due to a stinger in the throwing arm which caused 2 picks, they never trailed during the game. Tennessee could have been considered a playoff team last year and not much has changed. I've checked Marcus's stats and they are not very impressing. Look at his TD to int ratio. While on the other hand Tanihill(when healthy) throws for +3500 yrds consistantly.
Now he faces Darnold behind as you stated a "weak" line. The Jets put up 31pts in the 3rd quarter, all defense and special team. Darnold only had 2 td passes, nice, not doubting that in todays NFL. Just going with the Veteran and can logically see the Dolphins at 2-0 other than the Jets. GL on your calls.
Different opinion on Miami. Even tho the lighting delay and lose of Mariota due to a stinger in the throwing arm which caused 2 picks, they never trailed during the game. Tennessee could have been considered a playoff team last year and not much has changed. I've checked Marcus's stats and they are not very impressing. Look at his TD to int ratio. While on the other hand Tanihill(when healthy) throws for +3500 yrds consistantly.
Now he faces Darnold behind as you stated a "weak" line. The Jets put up 31pts in the 3rd quarter, all defense and special team. Darnold only had 2 td passes, nice, not doubting that in todays NFL. Just going with the Veteran and can logically see the Dolphins at 2-0 other than the Jets. GL on your calls.
i will accept a lot of ravens optimism and even some browns pessimism, but anyone praising the shrimp after beating up on peterman/bills at home are just instigating the gambling gods and will pay dearly.
i will accept a lot of ravens optimism and even some browns pessimism, but anyone praising the shrimp after beating up on peterman/bills at home are just instigating the gambling gods and will pay dearly.
Andy Dalton a better qb than Flacco, i'm flummoxed. If Andy had the same cast of so called receivers the last 5years and then was told to lead the league in pass atts. in 2 of those years he might not be a starter this year.
Andy Dalton a better qb than Flacco, i'm flummoxed. If Andy had the same cast of so called receivers the last 5years and then was told to lead the league in pass atts. in 2 of those years he might not be a starter this year.
Bet the Bengals....it wont beat 20 below like it was last December....
Busted them up in their opener last year...Rain didnt save the Bills..
made them look like a college team..zero first downs in the first half..
they toyed with them...47-3 it could have been worse...
They've waited for these punks for 9 months..ur money...
Dude give it up. I give the Jets more credit than your average squad of whom again? I didn't even check the stat sheet for the game and actually considered a wager on them this week because it wasn't the highest spread on the board AND the home dog rule. N. Peterman blows cock! Don't make me post last year's stats vs dago, TRAGIC!! And your sooo proud. Come mer' boy lemme pet chah...
Bet the Bengals....it wont beat 20 below like it was last December....
Busted them up in their opener last year...Rain didnt save the Bills..
made them look like a college team..zero first downs in the first half..
they toyed with them...47-3 it could have been worse...
They've waited for these punks for 9 months..ur money...
Dude give it up. I give the Jets more credit than your average squad of whom again? I didn't even check the stat sheet for the game and actually considered a wager on them this week because it wasn't the highest spread on the board AND the home dog rule. N. Peterman blows cock! Don't make me post last year's stats vs dago, TRAGIC!! And your sooo proud. Come mer' boy lemme pet chah...
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