After doing some detailed research regarding past tourament winners. Have used my own rankings/statistics as well as kenpom ratings and statistics and have come up with some interesting stuff.
Since 2002 (16 years) the tournament winner has been seeded between #1-#3 with 1 exception in 2014 where Uconn won as a #7 seed. #1 seed has won 10 times. #2 seed has won 2 times. #3 seed has won 3 times. #7 seed has won 1 time (Uconn).
Now using kenpon statistical ratings, a team within the top 10 kenpom ratings has won the tournament 15 out of 16 times. With the 1 expection being Uconn in 2014, they were ranked #15 in kenpom. #1 kenpom rated won 8 times. #2 kenpom rated won 2 times. #3 won 3 times. #8 won 1 time. #10 won 1 time. #15 won 1 time(Uconn). So I think its fairly safe to assume that a top 10 rating kenpom team will win again this year. Now, breaking that down even further....out of all the winners, every single one of them has been rating within the top 18 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Even when Uconn won as a #7 seed they ranked #10 in AdjDE.
Of all the teams winning, all of them ranked within the top #10 in adjusted offensive efficiency with 3 exceptions:
2003 Syracuse - #17 AdjOE
2011 Uconn - #19 AdjOE
2014 Uconn - #39 AdjOE
Could also say that all ranked withing the top 19 in AdjOE with the 1 exception of Uconn in 2014.
So what do all the winners of the last 16 years have in common???
-All winners were seeded #1-#3 with exception of Uconn in 2014 as a #7 seed
-All winners were ranked in top 10 in kenpo with exception of Uconn in 2014 (ranked #15)
-All winners had AdjDE of #18 or better
-All winners has AdjOE of #19 of better with exception of Uconn (#39) in 2014
Now let's take a look at current kenpom top 10 ratings:
#1 Virginia - AdjOE(37) AdjDE(1)
#2 Nova - AdjOE(1) AdjDE(36)
#3 Duke - AdjOE(2) AdjDE(27)
#4 Mich st - AdjOE(9) AdjDE(8)
#5 Purdue - AdjOE(6) AdjDE(10)
#6 Cinci - AdjOE(52) AdjDE(2)
#7 UNC - AdjOE(4) AdjDE(43)
#8 Gonzaga - AdjOE(15) AdjDE(18)
#9 Auburn - AdjOE(10) AdjDE(33)
#10 Texas Tech - AdjOE(62) AdjDE(3)
Now the season is not finished yet and things could still change but the teams that qualify as of now are:
Michigan st, Purdue and Gonzaga.
Will keep a close eye on things leading up to the tournament. Will also be starting to post my picks...will have them up shortly as I am still going over the games. Good luck to all and let's bury the books!!