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Last2thirst NCAAB Season Thread

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Author: [College Basketball] Topic: Last2thirst NCAAB Season Thread
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/17/2017 1:45:11 AM
Utah   +4                   

NWMST/Illinois Under 146.5 (2U) 

St Mary's -18  (2U)  

Day Record:  7 - 7 - 1  (+1 Unit)
Season:   
Season 27 - 25 - 4)....... EVEN!

I feel like I am treading water this week but thats fine....got some good intel for the rest of the year 
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/17/2017 2:45:03 PM
Sunday Play:

UNC -1  (2U)....they outrebounding and out offense the Vols....but Vols can be deadly from 3 pt......UNC reach on the perimeter could make a difference
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/17/2017 2:53:13 PM
Also Sunday:

Mercer  +3.5  (2U)....the lack of dee from LaSalle will keep Mercer in this game the whole time.....Mercer is a topranked offense!

UCSantaBarb +12.5 (1U)....have to take a team with the name Santa in their name this time of the year.....especially when its an all California game and they are 8-2.....Gouchos are well coached and will be up for this game
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/17/2017 3:24:00 PM
Monster turnaround game for Arizona St......down by 14 early and now up by 20pts. Thats when you can tell a team is the real deal!!
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/17/2017 5:57:37 PM
UNC -1  (2U)  

Mercer  +3.5  (2U)....first half....looks like the complete opposite happened from what I predicted....Mercer couldnt hit a 3 and LaSalle played defense...
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/17/2017 10:05:00 PM
Mercer  +3.5  (2U)               
UCSantaBarb +12.5 (1U)  


Day Record:  2-1  (+1 Unit)
Season:   
Season 29 - 26 - 4).......
(+1 Unit)
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/17/2017 10:17:55 PM
My List of Most Impressive Teams based on: Update#1- Dec.16th
-better than I thought ....great/good on the road.....consistency
.....winning the tough matchup

New Feature coding: upward improvement   OR   on the down

Most Impressive Team: Villanova

Tier 1
Michigan St.
Duke

Tier 2
Texas AM
W. Virginia
Arizona St.
Purdue
Oklahoma
UNC

Tier 3
Wichita St.,
Xavier, 
Kansas, Cinci

Tier 4
Florida St., Seton Hall, Syracuse,Texas Tech, Michigan, Missouri, 
Virginia Tech, Virginia, Clemson, Miami, Gonzaga

Tier 5
Texas, Tennessee, Boise, Nevada, UNLV, Missouri St., Rutgers, 
Arkansas, Okahoma St., Ohio St., Georgetown, Northwestern,
Auburn, Oregon
 
On Watch: Northern Iowa, Houston, Georgia Southern, Idaho,
East Tenn St., Nebraska, UNC Greens, Stephen Aus., Bradley, New Mex. St.,ULL, Iowa St., Boston Coll., BYU, San Diego, USC,
St. Johns, Penn St., 

dreski89 PM dreski89
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Posted: 12/17/2017 10:58:31 PM
what about the gators
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/17/2017 11:05:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dreski89:

what about the gators

I am not impressed yet......sure they are good but I am preparing a list for myself to bet these teams when I get line value. Florida has a terrible ATS  record  so far. They may make the board after a while just like USC has finally entered after 3 solid wipeout wins
dreski89 PM dreski89
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Posted: 12/17/2017 11:09:45 PM
interesting few teams missing id have up there but i really like this concept 
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/17/2017 11:34:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dreski89:

interesting few teams missing id have up there but i really like this concept 

Thanks. 

I do this for myself, but I thought I would share. I have gone through every matchup since the first week of November and then noted wins on the road, an underdog rising up, a hometeam being down and then winning by 15+,  etc

The point being.....I don't trust what ESPN and Vegas TELLS me is good....I use my own stats/eye-test so that when my biggest part of the season comes around which is Jan to end of March, I have a list of where I rely on to find mistakes by Vegas on lines

Remember, Vegas sets their lines on YOUR PERCEPTIONS (the public), not the sharp bettors homework and eyetest so that is why I do this to get me ready for March Madness. I have placed in the Top 5 of many successful 'money-making' March pools by doing this homework early and adjusting as I go....

You are welcome to use it.....its kind of like my tough teams- Power rankings.

If you have been following the thread, I did not have DUKE, UNC or VIRGINIA for quite a while because they were winning-losing the tough matchups but in a tight scoreline rather than rising up and demolishing their foes or coming from behind.

BOL on the season
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/18/2017 12:10:54 AM
Monday Plays:- all 1U unless otherwise stated

-taking Sparty -33 over Hou Baptist.....one big spread was tight (Oakland who are reasonable)....this one won't be 

-Gonzaga  -27.....IUPI are not a formidable foe....expect the coach to urge them to take this game seriously after the last game which almost cost them ...Zags need to tighten up on Dee before conference play and they will

-N. Illinois +18 ...can score....Marquette has defensive issues so I think I can backdoor this once they get up a lot because MQ likes to run and gun....they will slow it down in the second half which will feel alien to them in and then make mistakes

Idaho  +4  (2U)....I must admit I am a little smitten with this Vandals team....blew away another team I used to like (Wash St.) and statistically, are strong on both sides of the ball....MAC home teams cover a lot so tread carefully....

Boise  +7.5  (2U)....statistics and record say Boise is not getting any Vegas love.....SMU a different team this year and not as good as last year....oh....and Boise beat them fairly well last year....like this Chandler Hutchison for Boise...can take over the game and will have the ball in his hands in the last 10 min.

Creighton -10.5...tough to win here and especially without a dominant PG which may be the case for UTSA....good team but I have learned over the past 3 situations this year, losing a PG sometimes is worth about 10-15 pts for a team when capping



Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/19/2017 12:15:38 AM
Monday Plays:- all 1U unless otherwise stated

-taking Sparty -33       
-Gonzaga  -27               

-N. Illinois +18               

Idaho  +4  (2U)                

Boise  +7.5  (2U)               

Creighton -10.5                 


Day Record:  4 - 2  (+2 Units)
Season:   
Season 33 - 28 - 4).......
(+3 Unit)


Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/19/2017 12:26:04 AM
My List of Most Impressive Teams based on:
-better than I thought ....great/good on the road.....consistency
.....winning the tough matchup
New Feature coding: upward improvement   OR   on the down

Most Impressive Team: Villanova
Tier 1
Michigan St.,Duke
Tier 2
Texas AM, W. Virginia, Arizona St., Purdue, Oklahoma, UNC
Tier 3
Wichita St.,
Xavier, 
Kansas, Cinci
Tier 4
Florida St., Seton Hall, Syracuse,Texas Tech, Michigan, Missouri, 
Virginia Tech, Virginia, Clemson, Miami, Gonzaga, TCU
Tier 5 Tennessee,  Nevada, UNLV, Missouri St., Rutgers, 
Arkansas, Okahoma St., Ohio St., Georgetown, Northwestern,
Auburn, Oregon, SMU
SaiB PM SaiB
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Posted: 12/19/2017 1:42:35 AM
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/19/2017 6:41:50 AM
 On Watch: Northern Iowa, Houston, Georgia Southern, Idaho,
East Tenn St., Nebraska, UNC Greens, Stephen Aus., Bradley, New Mex. St.,ULL, Iowa St., Boston Coll., BYU, San Diego, USC, St. Johns, Penn St., Boise, Texas
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/19/2017 11:24:04 AM
Tuesday Plays:

Buffalo  +11.....can score and Syracuse bogs down occasionally...a bit of a rivalry developing here

Auburn -3.5....a bit of a mismatch in class...but you never know, Murray St. might keep it close....Pearl will be having his team execute in practice in prep for the SEC conference sched so I expect Auburn to be 'tight' in their system, particularily on defense

FAU +22.5....damn...line was higher last night....FAU can score!

Texas AM -12.5  (2U).....glad I waited....headscratcher why this one is coming down when I have AM as one of my TOP 5 teams at present (I don't put any stock in ESPN rankings usually, except at the start of the year as a gauge)

Belmont +6.5 ....like WKY, they have played a tough sched so I expect this game to be close-ish.....like the cushion of pts

Mercer +7.5....will try them again after a disappointing last game...they are one of the hottest shooting teams in the country on most nights....#1 for 3pt

Tulsa +12  (2U)....rivalry game and Tulsa are decent

Stephen Aus. +15 (2U)....glad I waited on this line...really like Missouri but this SA team can ball.....and well coached

USC -14....one of my teams on watch to cash in now to get on a roll....very talented team who has already had one of the toughest road and opponent scheds in their first 10 games....homecooking is working for them and they will start demolishing opponents as they have in the past 2


dcgmt PM dcgmt
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Posted: 12/19/2017 11:33:58 AM
GL Last2thirst
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/19/2017 3:45:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dcgmt:

GL Last2thirst

Thanks for the  from one of the classiest posters on Covers......
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/19/2017 8:46:31 PM
Rating system seems to be paying off if I find mistakes from Vegas...

Trending 5-0 in the early plays....but lets see how it finishes up.
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/19/2017 10:43:20 PM
Results Tuesday, so far:
Buffalo  +11           

Auburn -3.5                

FAU +22.5           

Texas AM -12.5  (2U) 

Belmont +6.5 ....

Mercer +7.5....

Tulsa +12  (2U)....

Stephen Aus. +15 (2U)....

USC -14
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/20/2017 12:24:18 AM
Results Tuesday, so far:
Buffalo  +11           

Auburn -3.5                

FAU +22.5           

Texas AM -12.5  (2U) 

Belmont +6.5 ....

Mercer +7.5....  

Tulsa +12  (2U)....PUSH

Stephen Aus. +15 (2U) 

USC -14...not looking good  

Day Record:  5 - 3 - 1  (+2 Units)
  
Season:   
Season 38 - 31 - 5).......
(+5 Units)   
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/20/2017 12:40:38 AM
My List of Most Impressive Teams:

Most Impressive - Villanova
Tier 1
Michigan St.,Duke
Tier 2
 W. Virginia, Arizona St., Purdue, Oklahoma, UNC
Tier 3
 
Kansas, Cinci, Texas AM, Texas Tech,
Tier 4
Florida St., Seton Hall, Syracuse, Michigan, 
Xavier, 
Wichita St.,
 
 Virginia, Clemson, Miami, Gonzaga, TCU, Nevada,
Tier 5 Tennessee,   UNLV, Missouri St., Rutgers, Arkansas,
 Okahoma St., Ohio St., Georgetown, Northwestern, Virginia Tech,
Auburn, Oregon, SMU, Missouri, Stephen Austin
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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Posted: 12/20/2017 12:44:31 AM
On Watch: Northern Iowa, Houston, Idaho, East Tenn St., Nebraska, Stephen Aus., Bradley, New Mex. St.,ULL, Iowa St., Boston Coll., BYU, San Diego, St. Johns, Penn St., Boise, Texas, UCF, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri St., Washington
Last2thirst PM Last2thirst
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quote#100
Posted: 12/20/2017 12:34:44 PM
Wednesday plays: :   
Season = (38 - 31 - 5).......
(+5 Units)

St Johns U147  (2U)....STJ can play dee and STJ has trouble scoring at times....also playing in a neutral gym with unfamiliar sightlines and shooting spots

Houston -4  ....like this team but the last road loss forces me to go easy on them until they get a legit road win....Prov as injury issues at PG and SG so, this will be close at worst and potentially a strong win for Houston

Georgetown -8....love how P. Ewing has this team fired up!

Northeastern +9...impressive road win the other day...their stock is on the rise especially if they can hang with the Bonnies

UMASS -4.5....like their opponent but UMASS is always tough at home and it looks like the team is going on a run!

Hofstra -6  (2U)...revenge game/at home and they are on a roll....like that combo when making a play plus they have a player who can take over the game

Duke O 149.5 (2U)...this Evansville team can ball!!...#1 3 pt team in the country and have played good teams already...lean to taking the pts but think the total is easy to get

UNC O 154 (2U)....same situation as Duke game....bonus is, Wofford has virtually no defensive initiative

Wash St. +9...funny line...team heading to west coast has to outscore a decent team by 10 pts to win?


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