I had this thought the other day, but didn't have time to post it. I thought game 1 of the NIT Finals was lined to set up Game 2 and potentially Game 3 if necessary. Game 1 opened with Pitt as 1 point dogs. Right there, didn't make sense as there was minimal to no chance that Wazzou's leading scorer, Brock Motum, was not going to suit up. And ultimately the line swung in favor of Pitt and closed with the road team laying 2.5. Much of the public follows line movement and while oddsmakers could have made Pitt the favorite to start with Motum out, why not let the public swing the line for them and let Pitt gain some betting momentum. As we all know, Motum didn't play and Wazzou pulled through, likely frustrating many who jumped on the Pitt train as it swung to -1, -2 and even -2.5. Now, Game 2 where Pitt opens at -10, which has many challenging this as entirely too high. But is it? If you assume a total of 7 points to adjust for a road game to a home game, the closing line of Pitt -2.5 would put this at 9.5. It opened 11 points off the Game 1 starting line, but I think we can agree the Pitt +1 was not where it should have been. The Game 2 opening line is about where it should be considering Motum is still out, the Game 1 line closed at 2.5 and Wazzou was 2-7 on the road in Pac 10 regular season play. Already the -10 has turned to -9 driven by the public's challenge on the opening number. Much like the public drove up the game 1 line, the reverse seems to be happening today. And in game 1, the outcome was the reverse of the line movement.
Leans : Pitt first half, Pitt full game (waiting for 4.5 and 8/8.5)
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I had this thought the other day, but didn't have time to post it. I thought game 1 of the NIT Finals was lined to set up Game 2 and potentially Game 3 if necessary. Game 1 opened with Pitt as 1 point dogs. Right there, didn't make sense as there was minimal to no chance that Wazzou's leading scorer, Brock Motum, was not going to suit up. And ultimately the line swung in favor of Pitt and closed with the road team laying 2.5. Much of the public follows line movement and while oddsmakers could have made Pitt the favorite to start with Motum out, why not let the public swing the line for them and let Pitt gain some betting momentum. As we all know, Motum didn't play and Wazzou pulled through, likely frustrating many who jumped on the Pitt train as it swung to -1, -2 and even -2.5. Now, Game 2 where Pitt opens at -10, which has many challenging this as entirely too high. But is it? If you assume a total of 7 points to adjust for a road game to a home game, the closing line of Pitt -2.5 would put this at 9.5. It opened 11 points off the Game 1 starting line, but I think we can agree the Pitt +1 was not where it should have been. The Game 2 opening line is about where it should be considering Motum is still out, the Game 1 line closed at 2.5 and Wazzou was 2-7 on the road in Pac 10 regular season play. Already the -10 has turned to -9 driven by the public's challenge on the opening number. Much like the public drove up the game 1 line, the reverse seems to be happening today. And in game 1, the outcome was the reverse of the line movement.
Leans : Pitt first half, Pitt full game (waiting for 4.5 and 8/8.5)
i'm waiting for the same but doubt they come off the lines at all then i'll know for sure to pound pit -5 first half and the -9.... any thought about the total in this one? i'm leaning over 131 but the old pit team might come out tonight and play stellar D and attack the boards not giving washington a chance to put up many points.
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i'm waiting for the same but doubt they come off the lines at all then i'll know for sure to pound pit -5 first half and the -9.... any thought about the total in this one? i'm leaning over 131 but the old pit team might come out tonight and play stellar D and attack the boards not giving washington a chance to put up many points.
I had this thought the other day, but didn't have time to post it. I thought game 1 of the CBI Finals was lined to set up Game 2 and potentially Game 3 if necessary. Game 1 opened with Pitt as 1 point dogs. Right there, didn't make sense as there was minimal to no chance that Wazzou's leading scorer, Brock Motum, was not going to suit up. And ultimately the line swung in favor of Pitt and closed with the road team laying 2.5. Much of the public follows line movement and while oddsmakers could have made Pitt the favorite to start with Motum out, why not let the public swing the line for them and let Pitt gain some betting momentum. As we all know, Motum didn't play and Wazzou pulled through, likely frustrating many who jumped on the Pitt train as it swung to -1, -2 and even -2.5. Now, Game 2 where Pitt opens at -10, which has many challenging this as entirely too high. But is it? If you assume a total of 7 points to adjust for a road game to a home game, the closing line of Pitt -2.5 would put this at 9.5. It opened 11 points off the Game 1 starting line, but I think we can agree the Pitt +1 was not where it should have been. The Game 2 opening line is about where it should be considering Motum is still out, the Game 1 line closed at 2.5 and Wazzou was 2-7 on the road in Pac 10 regular season play. Already the -10 has turned to -9 driven by the public's challenge on the opening number. Much like the public drove up the game 1 line, the reverse seems to be happening today. And in game 1, the outcome was the reverse of the line movement.
Leans : Pitt first half, Pitt full game (waiting for 4.5 and 8/8.5)
There you go, shark_apreza - let us all know if your vagina is still hurting after you re-read...
Idiot.
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Quote Originally Posted by SettleDownSpaz:
I had this thought the other day, but didn't have time to post it. I thought game 1 of the CBI Finals was lined to set up Game 2 and potentially Game 3 if necessary. Game 1 opened with Pitt as 1 point dogs. Right there, didn't make sense as there was minimal to no chance that Wazzou's leading scorer, Brock Motum, was not going to suit up. And ultimately the line swung in favor of Pitt and closed with the road team laying 2.5. Much of the public follows line movement and while oddsmakers could have made Pitt the favorite to start with Motum out, why not let the public swing the line for them and let Pitt gain some betting momentum. As we all know, Motum didn't play and Wazzou pulled through, likely frustrating many who jumped on the Pitt train as it swung to -1, -2 and even -2.5. Now, Game 2 where Pitt opens at -10, which has many challenging this as entirely too high. But is it? If you assume a total of 7 points to adjust for a road game to a home game, the closing line of Pitt -2.5 would put this at 9.5. It opened 11 points off the Game 1 starting line, but I think we can agree the Pitt +1 was not where it should have been. The Game 2 opening line is about where it should be considering Motum is still out, the Game 1 line closed at 2.5 and Wazzou was 2-7 on the road in Pac 10 regular season play. Already the -10 has turned to -9 driven by the public's challenge on the opening number. Much like the public drove up the game 1 line, the reverse seems to be happening today. And in game 1, the outcome was the reverse of the line movement.
Leans : Pitt first half, Pitt full game (waiting for 4.5 and 8/8.5)
There you go, shark_apreza - let us all know if your vagina is still hurting after you re-read...
i respect ur pick on pitt-9, but i really do feel that the smart bet will be on wash st. There is no way i would put a single dollar on pitt and if they do cover i will not get upset. 400 on wash st +9 did in about 2 hrs ago
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i respect ur pick on pitt-9, but i really do feel that the smart bet will be on wash st. There is no way i would put a single dollar on pitt and if they do cover i will not get upset. 400 on wash st +9 did in about 2 hrs ago
Tough to go against Utah State at home, but I think the transition to opponent gives a significant edge to Mercer. Some numbers to support that opinion.
Mercer - 3, 29, 58
Utah State - 312, 160, 90, 340
These numbers are the defensive rankings for each teams opponents in the preseason. Utah State has has the luxury of playing all home games in the postseason. They got more than they bargained for against Cal State Bakersfield winning only by 6, but then took Idaho, Loyola Marymount and Oakland behind the woodshed. As you can see, with the exception of LMU, the defensive numbers for these teams are not good. Mercer ranks 8th in the nation in FG% defense, so what may have seemed easy for the Aggies thus far is likely to met with some increased pressure tonight. On the other hand, Mercer played Georgia State, Old Dominion and Fairfield, all very, very good defensive teams as evident by their FG% rankings. Utah State ranks 97th in defensive FG%, so what may have been tough for Mercer previously might come a bit easier tonight. And whatever was tough in their last three games wasn't tough enough for Mercer. They managed to beat three very good defenses, two of which were on the road. While the Utah State home crowd might be tough to tolerate, Mercer has gone on the road and beat better teams than the Aggies. Utah State shot absolutely lights out in their last game vs. Oakland. It was hands down their best shooting performance as they connectewd on 63.8% of their shots and hit 75% from behind the arc. A collection of Covers degenerates could hit 50% against Oakland, so I'm not putting much stock in the Aggies performance. It is very impressive, but I think they are in for a serving of inconsistency and harsh reality tonight. Utah State is 1-5 SU in games following ones where they shot 50%+ in the previous game. They are being outscored 31-35 in the first half and 63-71 for the entire game. They are shooting 46% from the field and 36% from behind the arc. But Spaz these all weren't home game, right? No they were not, but pulling out the home games, Utah State is 0-3 SU being outscored 33-38 in the first half and 64-75 for the game. The home crowd will be their usual craziness, but this is not the same dominant home team of years past. They have some bad losses this year at home against teams not as sound as Mercer.
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thanks everyone, solid posts..
Mercer +3.5 (8.4 units to win 8)
Mercer +6.5 (10 units to win 9.52)
Tough to go against Utah State at home, but I think the transition to opponent gives a significant edge to Mercer. Some numbers to support that opinion.
Mercer - 3, 29, 58
Utah State - 312, 160, 90, 340
These numbers are the defensive rankings for each teams opponents in the preseason. Utah State has has the luxury of playing all home games in the postseason. They got more than they bargained for against Cal State Bakersfield winning only by 6, but then took Idaho, Loyola Marymount and Oakland behind the woodshed. As you can see, with the exception of LMU, the defensive numbers for these teams are not good. Mercer ranks 8th in the nation in FG% defense, so what may have seemed easy for the Aggies thus far is likely to met with some increased pressure tonight. On the other hand, Mercer played Georgia State, Old Dominion and Fairfield, all very, very good defensive teams as evident by their FG% rankings. Utah State ranks 97th in defensive FG%, so what may have been tough for Mercer previously might come a bit easier tonight. And whatever was tough in their last three games wasn't tough enough for Mercer. They managed to beat three very good defenses, two of which were on the road. While the Utah State home crowd might be tough to tolerate, Mercer has gone on the road and beat better teams than the Aggies. Utah State shot absolutely lights out in their last game vs. Oakland. It was hands down their best shooting performance as they connectewd on 63.8% of their shots and hit 75% from behind the arc. A collection of Covers degenerates could hit 50% against Oakland, so I'm not putting much stock in the Aggies performance. It is very impressive, but I think they are in for a serving of inconsistency and harsh reality tonight. Utah State is 1-5 SU in games following ones where they shot 50%+ in the previous game. They are being outscored 31-35 in the first half and 63-71 for the entire game. They are shooting 46% from the field and 36% from behind the arc. But Spaz these all weren't home game, right? No they were not, but pulling out the home games, Utah State is 0-3 SU being outscored 33-38 in the first half and 64-75 for the game. The home crowd will be their usual craziness, but this is not the same dominant home team of years past. They have some bad losses this year at home against teams not as sound as Mercer.
shark apreza is just a useless village mexican who trolls around bugging people. You're not wanted outside home depot, NOR are you wanted in one of the best cappers threads. Now F off you beaner
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shark apreza is just a useless village mexican who trolls around bugging people. You're not wanted outside home depot, NOR are you wanted in one of the best cappers threads. Now F off you beaner
Hate to be on opposite sides of you in both Spaz, but that's why they play the games. I've got enough invested in totals that if my sides hit the shitter I could still have a decent night. Don't think we see much more then 110 or 115 in the Pitt game. Both teams due to regress after their better than average shooting performances plus the coast to coast with a short turn around. Neither team lived up to its defensive billing last game, and I'd think that would be the emphasis tonight for both. Big number for Pitt to cover with the lack of total points I see in the game. If it goes over though, Pitt probably covers easily. BOL
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Hate to be on opposite sides of you in both Spaz, but that's why they play the games. I've got enough invested in totals that if my sides hit the shitter I could still have a decent night. Don't think we see much more then 110 or 115 in the Pitt game. Both teams due to regress after their better than average shooting performances plus the coast to coast with a short turn around. Neither team lived up to its defensive billing last game, and I'd think that would be the emphasis tonight for both. Big number for Pitt to cover with the lack of total points I see in the game. If it goes over though, Pitt probably covers easily. BOL
Nice job, Spaz. I managed to grab a small profit for the night. Those Mercer kids travel well, and deserve the trophy. BOL going forward in the tournaments. It's going to be sad seeing it end.
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Nice job, Spaz. I managed to grab a small profit for the night. Those Mercer kids travel well, and deserve the trophy. BOL going forward in the tournaments. It's going to be sad seeing it end.
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SPAZ OUT 
Nice job, Spaz. I managed to grab a small profit for the night. Those Mercer kids travel well, and deserve the trophy. BOL
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