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Jaybirdy... new thread continuing

Forum: Boxing
Author: [Boxing] Topic: Jaybirdy... new thread continuing
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1121
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Posted: 2/4/2012 2:33:10 AM
just started a continuing thread that was negative to start, so I made a new thread not to mislead anyone. Nice input lately... keep it up! It was a minor dispute and I didn't want to continue a thread that was getting positive info start off negatively regarding "walktheline". That's old news and over with.

Jaybirdy  :Wowzers, you guys are BRUTAL.

Hoping not to offend anyone, but definately NOT looking for any type of respect, dont give a garbage.

Floyd to Win will make it Rain on your Bankroll.  Not saying it works every time.....darn it, I AM saying it works every time !!  I've heard so much hype and bullshit about EVERY SINGLE fighter Floyd has faced over the past 5 years, and how HE COULD BE THE GUY........whatever.  You aint gotta like Floyd, hell I dont, but if you deny that hes pretty much untouchable at this point, you're only kidding yourself.  Those who posess the power, dont have the boxing skills to compete, and those with highly polished boxing skills, dont have the power to possibly steal enough rounds from "the tactician".  Love him or hate him, I call you foolish for betting against this guy....

Do you wanna know who the most successful "high stakes gambler" has been over the past few years.  It aint Billy friggin Walters......Its someone you would NEVER guess.  Its friggin rap artist 50 cent.  And you know why.  For four years now, he has hit the vegas window and laid down a cool ONE MILLION DOLLARS on Floyd to Win, every time he has fought.  Do I need to tell you his success rate??


Two of my closest friends made a huge some having to bet everywhere on three fights I told them to max... Hopkins +400 against Pavlik (and prop Hopkins to win by dec +650 for a little extra. The other fight was Paul Williams to beat Winky Wright. Also, to bet a nice amount on Ortiz +350 to beat Berto. I almost only bet even money or underdogs in boxing. In a sport that you have so many major underdogs that should be favorites, I advise them to invest wisely, especially in a crooked sports.
A) Never better a fighter who won the first fight of a rematch in a close or split decision manner, as the word TRILOGY speaks with such power. I did that when I bet Morales in his rematch with Barrera (which I felt he won but I defied my own rules).
B) Use caution betting overs of fights to win by decision as so many odd things cause fights to end early, like Dawson-Hopkins, Ortiz-Mayweather, etc, etc...
C) People always tell me a winner is a winner. Yes, but investing how to bet is more important than picking a higher percentage of winners. Why bet a large favorite when he will win 99 out of 100 times, because the risk-reward is not showing proper +EV. If boxing didn't have so many great even money and underdogs bets (plays that you should be laying -300 or more).
D) Always get your big money down on the fight itself and not just the prop. I beefed up the Ortiz bet with props for Ortiz to win by dec... but every round my heart sunk.
E) The advantage you have in sports betting is you pick the events you want to bet and the amount, so patience and ROI criteria can make a bettor who only wins 30% total of his wagers a huge winner. In sports betting, knowing where and when to bet (not only who to bet) gives you that extra edge every time it just keeps compounding using +EV plays.

... One example: A friend (team-mate) got me to play a 50-50 fight, but at +800. That is a monster overlay... I normally prefer my own fight odds of 65-35 favorite being +400, even though the +800 play has a much higher EV. I won't explain it, but post the original play.


Didn't do a deep study like usual on this fight.

Herrera +800 (0.5 Units)
Over 7 Rnds -130 (2.5 Units)

I feel an over, Ruslan has fought many journey-men. So I don't know if too much of that will slow him down. That's why the over and Herrera for a shot.

Post #8: Thanks. I felt it was 50/50 fight, depends on judges and if they want punches, accuracy, etc, in a tough fight. That's a type of fight I call a draw rematch. They both fought hard, although it might not seem that way because they lack so many technicals. They should allow these fighters to rematch and get paid a 3 to 4 times as much. Hope I gave a 9-1 shot winner to someone!

Post #9: My sportsbook had Herrera losing - lol. They forgot his younger brother fought earlier before him and lost.

Jaybirdy PM Jaybirdy
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 444
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Posted: 2/4/2012 6:33:15 PM

Thats some interesting stuff there, bro.  That's stuff that I'm only gonna find on a site like this.  Enjoyed reading it, and I know your passion gets you into sparring matches.  And I'm a witness you don't back off......but hey, we are who we are.

I just need you to keep posting, I really enjoy reading your posts. Even if I dont agree, its always food for thought.

Good Luck w/ your plays this weekend.

Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1121
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Posted: 2/5/2012 4:29:29 AM
That was an old post that was an 8-1 winner. Sorry for the confusion. I get sparring with people not about other fighters, about theirs and mine... attitude. You get one guy who copies exactly my stuff after just joining and said he never saw my post. Another guy who answer his own questions and alters picks... I had a tourney with 2 other friend as we tied on a bet, so we took 3 fights regardless of our own willingness to bet it... I lost all 3-lol. I never did analysis, just picks with units...LOL. I usually do a 4 page breakdown.
Qncyk1: He is funny you gotta admit... I asked him to show me when even and how WBA RULE #26 was broken or could be.. he said Pac fought Marg for the WBC at 150lbs with 8oz gloves and he originally said that it was up to both parties and the commission...that was it. I told him about Governing Body Rules... he then made almost the exact statement hoping no one would notice he changed it from...etc to etc...
my post was this... LINK
ME: Show me how my statement regarding the WBA on Rule #26 is wrong... because they are fighting WBA rules, did you know?

Qncyk1: manny and margo fought for the vacant 154 pound wbc superwelterweight title with eight ounce gloves as opposed to ten ounce gloves. anything is possible if the fighters and commission agree to it. pbf and cotto will be with ten ounce gloves.
Me: Once again, did you read the topic about using the rules of that governing body (lol) or realize, oops, I just read an article that someone posted and didn't know the rules or read the NSAC, and all Governing Body Rules & Regulations. I stated show me where I was wrong for WBA rule #26... and I'll even add the sub-sections that you don't know where to find regarding your reply!

Now: As for your Vacant 154 WBC Super Welterweight Title with eight ounce gloves... was this breaking news (LOL). Your statement "anything is possible if the fighters and commission agree to it. pbf and cotto will be with ten ounce gloves." is 100% wrong. Know the rules and understand what can be bent and what can be broken!

Qncyk1:he fight was for the wbc superwelterweight belt which mandates 10 ounce gloves.

both sides, as well as the sactioning governing body, had to agree on the glove size.

the catchweight had absolutely nothing to do with the size of the gloves.

www. b o x i n g s c e n e .com/forums/showthread.php?t=437587

but i guess you know more than top ranks president, todd duboef


NOW, NOTICE HE ADDED "sactioning governing body", and spelled it wrong, showing how much he has used that word. He would make a bad politician with back talk, and altered statements. and answers his own questions. Then ends his post how I am 0-3 on this site (because he read my wall and it showed the plays)... had he read my first post it was to bet Manny by dec and the over. 2 wins he claims as 1....LOL -

BTW- He made a ridiculous challenge to name a fighter that accomplished a certain set of criteria (to make his point) as he though none existed... within 10 minutes I named a fighter and so did thesoulspurpose. He then said my criteria for successful was invalid...LOL!

JerseryBoy89 is the guy proud of Margarito. Actually every fighter that is mexican he praises, and any match-up against a mexican fighter becomes a personal attack on the non-mexican. Such a great history for boxing, if he ever said what he claims on this site live in a real Mexican ring, not much would be left of him.

MargaCheeto is a criminal that doesn't even have the heart to say I cheated I'm sorry. Sounds like member posters on this site, they idolize him as a Mexican Hero!

Topic:Kneeguel Cotto will quit again vs Margarito

Forum: Boxing
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