golfobserver not showing me that stats I want to see yet...they must be hungover after labor day.
This is what I found on my own... Like these guys: Dustin Johnson Kuchar Donald Snedeker Scott Van Pelt Baddeley Schwartzel Furyk ZJohnson Villegas Garcia Leishman
Guys I'm not big fans of this week: Day Bubba Byrd Vijay Mahan YANG Laird
Haven't looked at matchups yet, but those are some initial thoughts.
golfobserver not showing me that stats I want to see yet...they must be hungover after labor day.
This is what I found on my own... Like these guys: Dustin Johnson Kuchar Donald Snedeker Scott Van Pelt Baddeley Schwartzel Furyk ZJohnson Villegas Garcia Leishman
Guys I'm not big fans of this week: Day Bubba Byrd Vijay Mahan YANG Laird
Haven't looked at matchups yet, but those are some initial thoughts.
What kind of key stats are we looking at for next week? The week off will help the 40 somethings like Vijay and Stricker, they both looked a bit tired last week. Throw Toms and Els in that group also.
What kind of key stats are we looking at for next week? The week off will help the 40 somethings like Vijay and Stricker, they both looked a bit tired last week. Throw Toms and Els in that group also.
MrBogey - That is not the stats I use. That one doesn't give you enough information in my opinion. This is a link to what I use, they don't have it posted for the BMW yet:
MrBogey - That is not the stats I use. That one doesn't give you enough information in my opinion. This is a link to what I use, they don't have it posted for the BMW yet:
Did u throw out results from 2008? ( different course ) also possibly throw out 2007 and before considering the course remake by Jones ( not sure how much he changed the layout or yardage differences.) But if we do that then we end up with a smallish sample size of 2009-2010 results. Thoughts volstud50?
Did u throw out results from 2008? ( different course ) also possibly throw out 2007 and before considering the course remake by Jones ( not sure how much he changed the layout or yardage differences.) But if we do that then we end up with a smallish sample size of 2009-2010 results. Thoughts volstud50?
I did throw out 2008. I took 2007 and earlier into consideration, but didn't weigh it as heavy as the past 2 years. Put most of the emphasis on 2009-10.
I did throw out 2008. I took 2007 and earlier into consideration, but didn't weigh it as heavy as the past 2 years. Put most of the emphasis on 2009-10.
Here are my initial Leans for tournament matchups:
Scott +130 over Donald Furyk +110 over Watney Garcia -125 over Mahan ZJohnson -120 over Woodland Choi -125 over Yang Kuchar -125 over Day Villegas -165 over Marino Schwartzel -110 over Watney Furyk -105 over Mickelson Scott -110 over Stricker
Obviously won't play them all, and laying a lot of chalk with those, as opposed to last tournament where I had Dog winners.
Here are my initial Leans for tournament matchups:
Scott +130 over Donald Furyk +110 over Watney Garcia -125 over Mahan ZJohnson -120 over Woodland Choi -125 over Yang Kuchar -125 over Day Villegas -165 over Marino Schwartzel -110 over Watney Furyk -105 over Mickelson Scott -110 over Stricker
Obviously won't play them all, and laying a lot of chalk with those, as opposed to last tournament where I had Dog winners.
WOW THAT IS A BIG DROP! What do you guys think of Scott to finish top18.5 -115, same with Kuchar top18.5 -115. I have to think one will finish top 18 with a good chance at both. Sorry to derail...
With you on choi over yang, villegas over marino, kuchar over day**Furyk over Snedeker also**.
WOW THAT IS A BIG DROP! What do you guys think of Scott to finish top18.5 -115, same with Kuchar top18.5 -115. I have to think one will finish top 18 with a good chance at both. Sorry to derail...
With you on choi over yang, villegas over marino, kuchar over day**Furyk over Snedeker also**.
Scott +130 vs Donald Furyk +110 vs Watney Choi -125 vs Yang Schwartzel -110 vs Watney Garcia -110 vs Mahan ZJohnson -120 vs Woodland Kuchar -135 vs Day Villegas -130 vs Marino Scott +105 vs Stricker
**Glad I waited on Garcia and Villegas and Scott/Stricker, received better odds on those**
Mr.Bogey - I love Kuchar and Scott to both finish in the top 18.
Scott +130 vs Donald Furyk +110 vs Watney Choi -125 vs Yang Schwartzel -110 vs Watney Garcia -110 vs Mahan ZJohnson -120 vs Woodland Kuchar -135 vs Day Villegas -130 vs Marino Scott +105 vs Stricker
**Glad I waited on Garcia and Villegas and Scott/Stricker, received better odds on those**
Mr.Bogey - I love Kuchar and Scott to both finish in the top 18.
Scott +130 vs Donald - Scott up 1 with 5 to play Furyk +110 vs Watney - Furyk up 3 after rd 1 Choi -125 vs Yang - Choi up 3 after rd 1 Schwartzel -110 vs Watney - Schwartzel down 2 after bad back 9 Garcia -110 vs Mahan - even, mahan on course ZJohnson -120 vs Woodland - ZJ up 2, GW 3 holes to play Kuchar -135 vs Day - Kuchar up 4, Day has 4 to play Villegas -130 vs Marino - Villegas up 8 Scott +105 vs Stricker - Scott up 2, with a few holes to go
Scott +130 vs Donald - Scott up 1 with 5 to play Furyk +110 vs Watney - Furyk up 3 after rd 1 Choi -125 vs Yang - Choi up 3 after rd 1 Schwartzel -110 vs Watney - Schwartzel down 2 after bad back 9 Garcia -110 vs Mahan - even, mahan on course ZJohnson -120 vs Woodland - ZJ up 2, GW 3 holes to play Kuchar -135 vs Day - Kuchar up 4, Day has 4 to play Villegas -130 vs Marino - Villegas up 8 Scott +105 vs Stricker - Scott up 2, with a few holes to go
Too bad there is no cut or we would really be looking good. Question for you or anyone else vol, say i bet 3 units on Villegas-155 over Marino on Tuesday, then saw the line at -130 WED. night. If my standard bet is usually 1 unit would i be out of line betting another 2-3 units on Villegas? I didnt even though my instincts said to go ahead and add on at the better price. The reason i hesitated was I hate to risk 1 unit on 3 or 4 match-ups and then 5 units on one. Any feedback appreciated guys.
Too bad there is no cut or we would really be looking good. Question for you or anyone else vol, say i bet 3 units on Villegas-155 over Marino on Tuesday, then saw the line at -130 WED. night. If my standard bet is usually 1 unit would i be out of line betting another 2-3 units on Villegas? I didnt even though my instincts said to go ahead and add on at the better price. The reason i hesitated was I hate to risk 1 unit on 3 or 4 match-ups and then 5 units on one. Any feedback appreciated guys.
MrBogey - I wish there was a cut as well! Depends on what your bet strategy is. Are you a unit bettor where you up units on games you really like or do you keep the same unit all the time and try to win more than you lose on the year? I am trying to be more disciplined where I only bet games I like vs getting sucked into other games (like MSU last night).
MrBogey - I wish there was a cut as well! Depends on what your bet strategy is. Are you a unit bettor where you up units on games you really like or do you keep the same unit all the time and try to win more than you lose on the year? I am trying to be more disciplined where I only bet games I like vs getting sucked into other games (like MSU last night).
Scott +130 vs Donald - up 1 Furyk +110 vs Watney - up 3 Choi -125 vs Yang - up 3 Schwartzel -110 vs Watney - down 2 Garcia -110 vs Mahan - even ZJohnson -120 vs Woodland - up 1 Kuchar -135 vs Day - up 5 Villegas -130 vs Marino - up 8 Scott +105 vs Stricker - up 2
Lots of golf to be played, but none of my matchups played their way out of it today.
Scott +130 vs Donald - up 1 Furyk +110 vs Watney - up 3 Choi -125 vs Yang - up 3 Schwartzel -110 vs Watney - down 2 Garcia -110 vs Mahan - even ZJohnson -120 vs Woodland - up 1 Kuchar -135 vs Day - up 5 Villegas -130 vs Marino - up 8 Scott +105 vs Stricker - up 2
Lots of golf to be played, but none of my matchups played their way out of it today.
Scott -120/Mahan -110 - Scott played bad yesterday and Mahan shot -2. Both are safe for next week, so not sure where the extra motivation would come from. This year when Scott had a bad first round, he would miss the cut. He never went low on the 2nd day to get back in to it. Mahan seems to be a solid rd 2 player. Lean Mahan
Van Pelt-105/Haas -125 - BVP has shown the ability to bounce back in the 2nd round. Twice this year he has gone 76/69, 76/67. His course record here is not great though. He is currently 28th in Fedex, so he knows he needs to play well. Haas is 21st in FedEx, so he needs to play solid as well, but has a little more cushion. He is usually pretty consistent in the first two rounds. Haas is decent at Cog Hill....no Lean
Baddeley +105/Schwartzel -135 - Baddeley hasn't played Cog Hill since the redo, but was 2nd 4 years ago here after lots of MC. He is 26th in FedEx, Charl is 32nd on the outside looking in. Charl has not played Cog Hill. Baddeley is a real nice rd 2 player. I think both players play well today, under par. But lean Baddeley.
Palmer-125/Stallings -105 - Palmer is 57th and Stallings 47th in FedEx. Palmer has NOT shown the ability to bounce back after a bad rd 1 this year, usually playing bad in rd 2 as well. Stallings is across the board in rd 2 this year, but I like him to get it going in rd 2 today and get back in the mix for next week. Lean Stallings.
Simpson -150/DJohnson +120 - Simpson has been very good lately. Both players are safe for next week. Webb has shot in the 60's alot this year in rd 1 and only twice has he not followed it up with another round in the 60s and one was a Major. So look for him to continue his good play. DJ won this event last year, but yesterday was his 2nd worst round of the year. I think DJ may mail it in this week due to the bad start, but too much juice on Webb for me to take it.
Watney -125/Stricker -105 - Both are safe for next week. Stricker shot his worst round of the year, so does he mail it in? Watney is usually fairly consistent from round 1 to round 2. Lean Watney
Furyk-135/ZJohnson +105 - Both guys need to finish well this week to make it to next week. Both have been good here the past 2 years. Both guys are usually consistent from rd 1 to rd 2. No lean as I had both these guys on my "like" list before tournament started.
Scott -120/Mahan -110 - Scott played bad yesterday and Mahan shot -2. Both are safe for next week, so not sure where the extra motivation would come from. This year when Scott had a bad first round, he would miss the cut. He never went low on the 2nd day to get back in to it. Mahan seems to be a solid rd 2 player. Lean Mahan
Van Pelt-105/Haas -125 - BVP has shown the ability to bounce back in the 2nd round. Twice this year he has gone 76/69, 76/67. His course record here is not great though. He is currently 28th in Fedex, so he knows he needs to play well. Haas is 21st in FedEx, so he needs to play solid as well, but has a little more cushion. He is usually pretty consistent in the first two rounds. Haas is decent at Cog Hill....no Lean
Baddeley +105/Schwartzel -135 - Baddeley hasn't played Cog Hill since the redo, but was 2nd 4 years ago here after lots of MC. He is 26th in FedEx, Charl is 32nd on the outside looking in. Charl has not played Cog Hill. Baddeley is a real nice rd 2 player. I think both players play well today, under par. But lean Baddeley.
Palmer-125/Stallings -105 - Palmer is 57th and Stallings 47th in FedEx. Palmer has NOT shown the ability to bounce back after a bad rd 1 this year, usually playing bad in rd 2 as well. Stallings is across the board in rd 2 this year, but I like him to get it going in rd 2 today and get back in the mix for next week. Lean Stallings.
Simpson -150/DJohnson +120 - Simpson has been very good lately. Both players are safe for next week. Webb has shot in the 60's alot this year in rd 1 and only twice has he not followed it up with another round in the 60s and one was a Major. So look for him to continue his good play. DJ won this event last year, but yesterday was his 2nd worst round of the year. I think DJ may mail it in this week due to the bad start, but too much juice on Webb for me to take it.
Watney -125/Stricker -105 - Both are safe for next week. Stricker shot his worst round of the year, so does he mail it in? Watney is usually fairly consistent from round 1 to round 2. Lean Watney
Furyk-135/ZJohnson +105 - Both guys need to finish well this week to make it to next week. Both have been good here the past 2 years. Both guys are usually consistent from rd 1 to rd 2. No lean as I had both these guys on my "like" list before tournament started.
Fowler-145/Moore +115 - Fowler is still on the outside looking in for next week. Moore blew up on the back 9 yesterday, but has taken it pretty low at Cog Hill a couple rounds last year in a 3rd place finish. Moore has shown the ability to bounce back after a bad first round this year. Fowler has been a really good rd 2 player since June this year. I think both guys could play well today, with advantage to Fowler. Lean Fowler.
Senden -140/O'Hair +110 - Senden is on the bubble and played great on the back 9 yesterday. O'Hair played well too and has a better record at Cog Hill. O'Hair has been a horrible rd 2 player with only 1 rd in the 60s this year, he shot 73 in rd 2 in the Canadian Open that he won. Lean Senden.
Donald-155/Day +120 - Day was on my fade list this week and he shot 6 over, 1 shot off of last. Sticking with it, Lean Donald.
Mickelson -155/Watson +125 - Both players are safe for next week. Watson was on my fade list, Lean Phil.
Laird-110/Davis -120 - Two guys you never heard of. Both have a chance to move into the top 30 with good play. Laird is closer now. I wasn't a fan of either guy coming in to the week. Coin flip to Davis.
Fowler-145/Moore +115 - Fowler is still on the outside looking in for next week. Moore blew up on the back 9 yesterday, but has taken it pretty low at Cog Hill a couple rounds last year in a 3rd place finish. Moore has shown the ability to bounce back after a bad first round this year. Fowler has been a really good rd 2 player since June this year. I think both guys could play well today, with advantage to Fowler. Lean Fowler.
Senden -140/O'Hair +110 - Senden is on the bubble and played great on the back 9 yesterday. O'Hair played well too and has a better record at Cog Hill. O'Hair has been a horrible rd 2 player with only 1 rd in the 60s this year, he shot 73 in rd 2 in the Canadian Open that he won. Lean Senden.
Donald-155/Day +120 - Day was on my fade list this week and he shot 6 over, 1 shot off of last. Sticking with it, Lean Donald.
Mickelson -155/Watson +125 - Both players are safe for next week. Watson was on my fade list, Lean Phil.
Laird-110/Davis -120 - Two guys you never heard of. Both have a chance to move into the top 30 with good play. Laird is closer now. I wasn't a fan of either guy coming in to the week. Coin flip to Davis.
Singh +125/Choi -155 - Both are safe for next week. Choi blew Singh out of water yesterday. Choi finished 3rd here last year. Singh had a couple bad 1st rds this year and didn't bounce back well. He also shot 77 in rd 2 here last year. Lean Choi.
Toms -125/Howell -105 - Both need solid play to stay in top 30. Toms has a better track record here. Howell had 17 pars yesterday, Toms had 3 birdies on the back side to get going. Very even matchup.
Dufner -120/Stanley -110 - Both are right outside the top 30. Dufner is a more established player. Dufner had been middle of the pack at Cog Hill past 2 years, this is Stanleys first time. Stanley has been playing better lately. Lean Stanley.
Singh +125/Choi -155 - Both are safe for next week. Choi blew Singh out of water yesterday. Choi finished 3rd here last year. Singh had a couple bad 1st rds this year and didn't bounce back well. He also shot 77 in rd 2 here last year. Lean Choi.
Toms -125/Howell -105 - Both need solid play to stay in top 30. Toms has a better track record here. Howell had 17 pars yesterday, Toms had 3 birdies on the back side to get going. Very even matchup.
Dufner -120/Stanley -110 - Both are right outside the top 30. Dufner is a more established player. Dufner had been middle of the pack at Cog Hill past 2 years, this is Stanleys first time. Stanley has been playing better lately. Lean Stanley.
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