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Champions League Playoffs

Forum: Soccer
Author: [Soccer] Topic: Champions League Playoffs
FThaGOP PM FThaGOP
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Posted: 2/13/2018 3:44:37 PM
I'm seriously considering a big play on FC Porto tomorrow...

LIVERPOOL:
Liverpool has exactly one quality win this year (at home v Man City 4-3), but other than that have been average at best. And on the road, you'd have to go back to August for their last quality win (Bayern 2-1). Not trying to take anything away from Liverpool, but the EPL is overrated. There are exactly six good teams in the league. Past Arsenal, yawn. Against those 5 other teams on the road, here are their results this season:

D Arsenal 3-3
L Tottenham 1-4
L Man City 0-5

And their group stage results:

D Sevilla 3-3
W Maribor 7-0
D Spartak Moscow 1-1

Liverpool got lucky to draw such a weak group. None of these teams is near the quality of Porto, and Maribor isn't in the same universe. Of the games against top tier competition, they've allowed 12 goals in 3 matches, scoring 4. 

PORTO:
Porto is a quality side, and BY FAR the best Liverpool will have seen in international play since last summer. They had a much tougher group to get through, but still managed to take care of business to get straight through to the playoffs. 

They have been rather remarkable at home, with only one loss in their last 44 at home. Obviously playing most of their matches against extremely weak competition accounts for a lot of those wins, though. Bottom of the Portuguese Premier League is not exactly stiff competition. Against quality competition though, here are their home results:

Within Portugal:
W Sporting 1-0
W Braga 3-1
D Benfica 0-0

W Monaco 5-2
W Leipzig 3-1
L Besiktas 1-3

Clearly, they play impeccably well at home, and even against high quality competition, usually come out on top. 

I don't think either of these teams will have much of a shot at getting past the next stage of competition, but getting these kinds of odds on a quality home squad in the first leg of the Champions League playoffs seems like an incredible bargain. Liverpool is good enough to compete at home, but they have generally be awful on the road unless against very weak competition. 

Porto +220
Porto +0.5 -140 LARGE
emduece PM emduece
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Posted: 2/13/2018 5:32:21 PM
Good luck abd welcome
LooseNotLose PM LooseNotLose
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Posted: 2/13/2018 7:55:27 PM
Huh...Liverpool is the Marseille of England
yorosan PM yorosan
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Posted: 2/13/2018 9:07:04 PM

Don't agree EPL is overrated, they have 5 teams qualify for Group stages and all 5 reach this round, with 2-3 teams being serious contender

GL 

FThaGOP PM FThaGOP
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Posted: 2/14/2018 11:37:09 AM
emduece Thanks

LooseNotLose, not really sure what you're getting at. I'm not saying that Liverpool is a bad team, just that they haven't performed well against solid competition on the road. 

yorosan, I'm saying that the EPL is overrated because beyond the top 6 teams (i.e., Man City, Man U, Liverpool, Chelsea,Tottenham, and Arsenal), they're extremely weak. Those top 6 are legit, but too many people consider middle and bottom table EPL teams to be in the same class as top teams in leagues like the Portugal Premier League or Eredivisie, and I contend this isn't the case. When Liverpool has met any competition above Burnley or Leicester, they've had weak results. My point above is that Porto is in the class of Liverpool, Arsenal, Man U, etc than Burnley and Leicester.
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/14/2018 1:15:05 PM
"Not trying to take anything away from Liverpool, but the EPL is overrated. There are exactly six good teams in the league."     this is crazy.

had a 'roundtable' discussion with a bunch of friends over the holidays.  lets take Swansea(or was it Crystal???  cant remember) for example.....back in Dec they were like in 18th place in the relegation zone of the EPL ---- this teams club ranking was HIGHER than  3 of the CL Group stage participants at that time.     wrap ur head around that for a second... a cellar dweller ranked higher than a CL particiant and individually players, these lower EPL clubs have higher transfer value than their counterparts in other leagues
but go look at bottom feeder West Hams results vs the other top squads in the EPL this year, you wont see that sh*t from metz, koln, benevento, malaga. those clubs get blown away by the tops in Serie, Bund, Ligue, Liga. goes ask Tott & Pool how much FUN it was playing them this year. 

and ill go so far as to say the BOTTOM 4 of the EPL would destroy the cellar dwellers of other leagues.    ur looking at this the wrong way. its not that the bottom clubs of the EPL are bad.....  its cuz the TOP/MIDDLE are freaking good... which MAKES THEM LOOK BAD.
when one is analyzing a league in its entirety, you cannot cherry-pick and use the top clubs for your basis. 

and in case ur wondering,  this isnt biased.... im a Serie A guy saying this. 
FThaGOP PM FThaGOP
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Posted: 2/14/2018 2:06:48 PM
specimen24, we don't actually seem to be that far apart on the issues here. I'm not contending that the bottom table teams of those other leagues compare favorably to the bottom table teams in the EPL, only that the top teams in other leagues don't get enough respect. 

For example, when Arsenal hosted Liverpool, they were +150 and +0.5 -182. I think Porto should have about the same line, and getting them at +258 and +0.5 -135 right now is huge value. 

Just to be clear (if not repetitious), I'm not saying I think Metz is better than West Brom. I honestly don't care. I'm saying that when facing good competition, Livperpool doesn't have good results on the road, and their 8-3-3 road record on the road has to be SERIOUSLY discounted. Their EPL road results:

W Southampton
W Huddersfield
L Swansea
W Burnley
D Arsenal
W Bournemouth
W Brighton
W Stoke
W West Ham
L Tottenham
D Newcastle
W Leicester
L Man City
D Watford

I don't think a single one of those wins is against a team Porto wouldn't crush. That they managed draws against Arsenal and in group stage, Spartak and Sevilla, who are at least getting closer to Porto's quality, is the reason my big play is on the +0.5. 

Obviously I'm not saying Porto should be -500 or something crazy like that. I'm just saying I think there's huge value in fading Liverpool against a quality club on the road. We'll see if my thinking pays in a couple hours. 
PublicJoe PM PublicJoe
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Posted: 2/14/2018 2:10:59 PM
Aboubakar playing?  if he's out I would not play Porto ml.
FThaGOP PM FThaGOP
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Posted: 2/14/2018 2:27:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PublicJoe:

Aboubakar playing?  if he's out I would not play Porto ml.

He's out, but Soares has been quite good in his absence, scoring in both games (2 in one). Obviously it's not favorable, but Aboubakar isn't the whole team. 
FThaGOP PM FThaGOP
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Posted: 2/14/2018 4:13:54 PM

I stand corrected

LooseNotLose PM LooseNotLose
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Posted: 2/14/2018 7:48:52 PM
t pretty clearly in your first post what you thought of Liverpool...I made the analogy that Marseille was the Liverpool of League One. I wasn’t getting at anything buddy :) I found your observations to be astute — Liverpool might not be as bad as you thought, but no one was predicting 5-0 either.

I thought your reasoning was sound.  But if all it took was sound reasoning to win, we’d all quit our jos and collect our paychecks from the book.  
mr_bollox PM mr_bollox
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Posted: 2/14/2018 10:52:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by FThaGOP:

I stand corrected

 

Respect to you Ftha, you made a case, you backed it up with analysis, you took a loss and came back on here to face up to it. Fair play to you, it was one of those games where everything went right for Liverpool and Porto couldnt have scored in a brothel but looking at what happened to Basel, the gap between the big 4 leagues and the rest of europe is a big rift now.

FThaGOP PM FThaGOP
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Posted: 2/15/2018 8:53:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mr_bollox:

 

Respect to you Ftha, you made a case, you backed it up with analysis, you took a loss and came back on here to face up to it. Fair play to you, it was one of those games where everything went right for Liverpool and Porto couldnt have scored in a brothel but looking at what happened to Basel, the gap between the big 4 leagues and the rest of europe is a big rift now.


 Yeah, Porto was wildly disappointing yesterday. They almost opened the scoring too, which might have been all the difference, but they couldn't finish in the final third, and that's all that matters.

I'm not entirely convinced that top to bottom, the big 4 (or 5) are all going to trounce any other team, but certainly the top of the EPL acquitted themselves very nicely thus far. Very impressive performances so far, and the possibility of 5 EPL teams making the quarter finals seems more possible, though I don't see Chelsea getting past Barcelona. 

I also think Shakhtar stands a solid chance against Roma, though I might have to just lay off that one now.

Get'em next time.
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