One of my favorite things to do during the off-season is nerd out and find a few CFB win totals that look appealing based on returning starters, transfers, coaching changes, schedule, etc. Yeah, I'm laying a lot of juice on some of these but I play them with the idea that a push is the worst case scenario.
I started picking these up a few at a time back in July so the lines may have deviated a bit since then:
1) Washington State u6 (-115) ...favorite play. The Cougars are set for a fall following the graduation of Luke Falk and the horrible loss of Tyler Hilinski. Add in transfers from two of their top WR's, Mike Leach's flirtation with TENN, Alex Grinch fleeing to OSU, and their most influential defensive player (Hercules Mata'afa) heading early to the NFL. Rough year on the Palouse.
2) Louisville u7 (-130) ...the defense blows and there's no Lamar Jackson to save them
3) Ohio State u11 (-172) ...grabbed this one the moment the Urban Meyer controversy was announced. I snatched it before the book pulled the totals so I didn't put much thought into it other than the fact that it wasn't going to be a good thing for tOSU. Clearly, tons of juice but the Buckeyes will drop at least one along the way in the B10.
4) Boston College o6.5 (-145) ...want it at 7 but waited long enough and it wasn't showing up. Probably an 8-4 season on Chesnut Hill.
5) Northwestern u6 (+105) ...good QB, decent team, tough draw.
6) Wyoming o6.5 (-140) ...the MWC is littered with crappy teams so wins should be easy to come by. Losing Josh Allen lowers the total but actually makes this a better squad. Lots of returning starters with talent.
7) South Carolina o7 (-165) ...7 is the absolute floor and they should end up at either 8 or 9. Coastal Carolina, Marshall, and Chattanooga are three freebies. How many can the grab from Vandy, Kentucky, Mizzou, Ole Miss, A&M, Tennessee and Florida? Four at a minimum, and that'll get them to 7 already. Clemson and UGA are the two losses, although they could be competive with the Bulldogs at home.
8) Missouri u7 (-140) ...terrible defense and the schedule is far less friendly than last year. They got so lucky in their late season run playing a bunch of down SEC teams. I'm guessing they end up at 6-6 despite the presence of Drew Lock and a bunch of returning starters on offense.
9) Duke o6 (-140) ...favorite play #2. Pretty good squad trapped in the "Duke" name. I see 9-3 with losses to Clemson, Miami and either Northwestern/Va Tech/or some silly game they boot along the way
10) Illinois u4 (-165) ...wish I could find this lower but oh well. Lovie won't squeeze enough blood from a turnip to get the Illini to 5 wins. No way...
11) Maryland o5 (-155) ...will win at least 6.