For those who utilize " Computer Cappers " as your handicapping strategy . Here's something to think about : Breakeven win % vs standard odds of -110 is 52.4 % ( actually 52.38 % )
2017 season results vs the spread for the most prominent " Computer Cappers " are :
Sagarin Points..........52.43 %
Massey Ratings........49.01 %
ESPN FPI.................51.24 %
FEI Projections.........50.87 %
Of 56 total " Computer Cappers " , only 4 finished above " Breakeven ". Of those 4 the highest finish was only 53.46 % . You're sure not going to get wealthy on that percentage in your entire lifetime.
I post this to let all know that using these cappers as your sole strategy just about assures you of a losing season , and that learning to cap may be a better alternative. FWIW , I learned this lesson back in 1983. It has paid dividends ever since.
The 2017 results I've posted here are typical for years past as well , so the win percentages posted have not changed much over the years.
It is also interesting to note that all " Computer Cappers " were only able to pick the straight up winner 74.23 % of the time ( or less ) . This is also consistent with Linesmakers current ability to make the winning team the actual favorite.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
For those who utilize " Computer Cappers " as your handicapping strategy . Here's something to think about : Breakeven win % vs standard odds of -110 is 52.4 % ( actually 52.38 % )
2017 season results vs the spread for the most prominent " Computer Cappers " are :
Sagarin Points..........52.43 %
Massey Ratings........49.01 %
ESPN FPI.................51.24 %
FEI Projections.........50.87 %
Of 56 total " Computer Cappers " , only 4 finished above " Breakeven ". Of those 4 the highest finish was only 53.46 % . You're sure not going to get wealthy on that percentage in your entire lifetime.
I post this to let all know that using these cappers as your sole strategy just about assures you of a losing season , and that learning to cap may be a better alternative. FWIW , I learned this lesson back in 1983. It has paid dividends ever since.
The 2017 results I've posted here are typical for years past as well , so the win percentages posted have not changed much over the years.
It is also interesting to note that all " Computer Cappers " were only able to pick the straight up winner 74.23 % of the time ( or less ) . This is also consistent with Linesmakers current ability to make the winning team the actual favorite.
Prior to the start of the 2016 College Football season , on another forum,
I posted my results of a back check I performed on Bill Connely's analysis
of all College Football teams that he previewed for the 2016 season.
This was done with emphasis on his MOV and Win Probability projections.
My sample size amounted to 60 % of all teams , all Conferences and all
games played.
While I will not post those results to this forum , I highly recommend that all
who put capital " At Risk " based on his data , take the time to verify the
accuracy of his 2017 preview data vs actual results to assess the accuracy
of the information he provides before you use it for wagering purposes.
You have time to do this before his 2018 information begins to come out.
It is well worth the time and the effort.
I do not recommend that anyone use another's data to determine MOV and
Win Probability for wagering purposes unless they have personally verified
that data for accuracy and consistency.
When I completed my backcheck and saw what the results were , I was curious to determine where he was most accurate and where he was not , and why. I compared the quality of his results by SOS , QBR diff , scheme , talent diff. , coaching, stats and was able to see where he was most accurate, and why. I recommend that all who use Connely's data to do this exercise as it will make his data far more useful to you as a capping tool.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Prior to the start of the 2016 College Football season , on another forum,
I posted my results of a back check I performed on Bill Connely's analysis
of all College Football teams that he previewed for the 2016 season.
This was done with emphasis on his MOV and Win Probability projections.
My sample size amounted to 60 % of all teams , all Conferences and all
games played.
While I will not post those results to this forum , I highly recommend that all
who put capital " At Risk " based on his data , take the time to verify the
accuracy of his 2017 preview data vs actual results to assess the accuracy
of the information he provides before you use it for wagering purposes.
You have time to do this before his 2018 information begins to come out.
It is well worth the time and the effort.
I do not recommend that anyone use another's data to determine MOV and
Win Probability for wagering purposes unless they have personally verified
that data for accuracy and consistency.
When I completed my backcheck and saw what the results were , I was curious to determine where he was most accurate and where he was not , and why. I compared the quality of his results by SOS , QBR diff , scheme , talent diff. , coaching, stats and was able to see where he was most accurate, and why. I recommend that all who use Connely's data to do this exercise as it will make his data far more useful to you as a capping tool.
For those who utilize conventional stats as a capping tool , remember that all stats are backward looking and do not necessarily reflect the potential results of any future matchups unless they are tempered with criteria that directly analyze the specific matchup.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
For those who utilize conventional stats as a capping tool , remember that all stats are backward looking and do not necessarily reflect the potential results of any future matchups unless they are tempered with criteria that directly analyze the specific matchup.
For those who utilize conventional stats as a capping tool , remember that all stats are backward looking and do not necessarily reflect the potential results of any future matchups unless they are tempered with criteria that directly analyze the specific matchup. The problem with using conventional stats to establish " True Line Value " or " Win Probability " is that they are not compatible to a specific matchup. Stats must be customized for scheme and talent levels, and net production. Most do not know what data is critical in resolving the question of " What is required to determine value on a wager ". The reason It's difficult for most is that they can look at stats but they do not know the limits of what stats can tell them. Most never figure it out.
Good Luck to all this coming season
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
For those who utilize conventional stats as a capping tool , remember that all stats are backward looking and do not necessarily reflect the potential results of any future matchups unless they are tempered with criteria that directly analyze the specific matchup. The problem with using conventional stats to establish " True Line Value " or " Win Probability " is that they are not compatible to a specific matchup. Stats must be customized for scheme and talent levels, and net production. Most do not know what data is critical in resolving the question of " What is required to determine value on a wager ". The reason It's difficult for most is that they can look at stats but they do not know the limits of what stats can tell them. Most never figure it out.
Prior to the start of the 2017 College Football season , on another forum,
I posted my results of a back check I performed on Bill Connely's analysis
of all College Football teams that he previewed for the 2016 season.
This was done with emphasis on his MOV and Win Probability projections.
My sample size amounted to 60 % of all teams , all Conferences and all
games played.
While I will not post those results to this forum , I highly recommend that all
who put capital " At Risk " based on his data , take the time to verify the
accuracy of his 2017 preview data vs actual results to assess the accuracy
of the information he provides before you use it for wagering purposes.
You have time to do this before his 2018 information begins to come out.
It is well worth the time and the effort.
I do not recommend that anyone use another's data to determine MOV and
Win Probability for wagering purposes unless they have personally verified
that data for accuracy and consistency.
It's time for me to prepare for this upcoming CFB season , but I thought I'd leave the forum with something to think about , especially for those who are too lazy to cap and / or blindly follow the work of others. With regard to my post # 1, I took the time to verify his data , and while I do not use it myself , for those who do , I will leave you with a couple of questions to ask yourselves relative to his data.
MOV Projections
1. What percentage of his MOV projections were incorrect by 40 or more points ?
Win Probability
1. What percentage of the time did he project the wrong team to win the matchup ?
If you are putting your capital at risk based on the work of others , I highly recommend that you find the answers to those questions .
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Prior to the start of the 2017 College Football season , on another forum,
I posted my results of a back check I performed on Bill Connely's analysis
of all College Football teams that he previewed for the 2016 season.
This was done with emphasis on his MOV and Win Probability projections.
My sample size amounted to 60 % of all teams , all Conferences and all
games played.
While I will not post those results to this forum , I highly recommend that all
who put capital " At Risk " based on his data , take the time to verify the
accuracy of his 2017 preview data vs actual results to assess the accuracy
of the information he provides before you use it for wagering purposes.
You have time to do this before his 2018 information begins to come out.
It is well worth the time and the effort.
I do not recommend that anyone use another's data to determine MOV and
Win Probability for wagering purposes unless they have personally verified
that data for accuracy and consistency.
It's time for me to prepare for this upcoming CFB season , but I thought I'd leave the forum with something to think about , especially for those who are too lazy to cap and / or blindly follow the work of others. With regard to my post # 1, I took the time to verify his data , and while I do not use it myself , for those who do , I will leave you with a couple of questions to ask yourselves relative to his data.
MOV Projections
1. What percentage of his MOV projections were incorrect by 40 or more points ?
Win Probability
1. What percentage of the time did he project the wrong team to win the matchup ?
If you are putting your capital at risk based on the work of others , I highly recommend that you find the answers to those questions .
Well by now everyone has their copy of P. Steele's magazine.
I would just mention to all , to use caution in using his " Power Ratings " to estimate line value. You are liable to be disappointed with your results.
Above I have also mentioned Connely's work as well as the " Computer Cappers "past results.
Select your information sources carefully , and know their limits of accuracy if you use them to put capital at risk.
Good Luck.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Well by now everyone has their copy of P. Steele's magazine.
I would just mention to all , to use caution in using his " Power Ratings " to estimate line value. You are liable to be disappointed with your results.
Above I have also mentioned Connely's work as well as the " Computer Cappers "past results.
Select your information sources carefully , and know their limits of accuracy if you use them to put capital at risk.
Well by now everyone has their copy of P. Steele's magazine.
I would just mention to all , to use caution in using his " Power Ratings " to estimate line value. You are liable to be disappointed with your results.
Above I have also mentioned Connely's work as well as the " Computer Cappers "past results.
Select your information sources carefully , andknow their limits of accuracy if you use them to putcapital at risk.
Good Luck.
The step underlined above , if followed , can save the Forum as a whole, from a lot of posts about " Bad Beats " and games being " Fixed "
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Well by now everyone has their copy of P. Steele's magazine.
I would just mention to all , to use caution in using his " Power Ratings " to estimate line value. You are liable to be disappointed with your results.
Above I have also mentioned Connely's work as well as the " Computer Cappers "past results.
Select your information sources carefully , andknow their limits of accuracy if you use them to putcapital at risk.
Good Luck.
The step underlined above , if followed , can save the Forum as a whole, from a lot of posts about " Bad Beats " and games being " Fixed "
thanks for all your effort you put into helping others so far.
I want to start handicapping myself this season and just started watching CFB last year. What tips do you have for new handicappers? What is your thinking process while handicapping? What stats/metrics do you use? What is your selection process?
Sorry for any language errors. English is not my first language.
thanks for all your effort you put into helping others so far.
I want to start handicapping myself this season and just started watching CFB last year. What tips do you have for new handicappers? What is your thinking process while handicapping? What stats/metrics do you use? What is your selection process?
Sorry for any language errors. English is not my first language.
thanks for all your effort you put into helping others so far.
I want to start handicapping myself this season and just started watching CFB last year. What tips do you have for new handicappers? What is your thinking process while handicapping? What stats/metrics do you use? What is your selection process?
Sorry for any language errors. English is not my first language.
Greetings from Germany. GG
The thinking process centers on one specific thing.
Wagering ONLY on plays where a measured value to the bettor is present.There are many different methods to measure value. Some are more accurate than others , but choose a method that you are comfortable using to improve your results.
For more on this , please read my Bowl and also my Nat. Champ. thread. You will find more detail in those and also my recap thread and the 2013 Week 1 thread. These go right to the thinking process
Welcome to the Forum and person Luck to you.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
thanks for all your effort you put into helping others so far.
I want to start handicapping myself this season and just started watching CFB last year. What tips do you have for new handicappers? What is your thinking process while handicapping? What stats/metrics do you use? What is your selection process?
Sorry for any language errors. English is not my first language.
Greetings from Germany. GG
The thinking process centers on one specific thing.
Wagering ONLY on plays where a measured value to the bettor is present.There are many different methods to measure value. Some are more accurate than others , but choose a method that you are comfortable using to improve your results.
For more on this , please read my Bowl and also my Nat. Champ. thread. You will find more detail in those and also my recap thread and the 2013 Week 1 thread. These go right to the thinking process
The thinking process centers on one specific thing.
Wagering ONLY on plays where a measured value to the bettor is present.There are many different methods to measure value. Some are more accurate than others , but choose a method that you are comfortable using to improve your results.
For more on this , please read my Bowl and also my Nat. Champ. thread. You will find more detail in those and also my recap thread and the 2013 Week 1 thread. These go right to the thinking process
Welcome to the Forum and GoodLuck to you.
Don't know what happened there.
Good Luck to you this season.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
The thinking process centers on one specific thing.
Wagering ONLY on plays where a measured value to the bettor is present.There are many different methods to measure value. Some are more accurate than others , but choose a method that you are comfortable using to improve your results.
For more on this , please read my Bowl and also my Nat. Champ. thread. You will find more detail in those and also my recap thread and the 2013 Week 1 thread. These go right to the thinking process
Hey WISEGUY36, thanks for all your effort you put into helping others so far. I want to start handicapping myself this season and just started watching CFB last year. What tips do you have for new handicappers? What is your thinking process while handicapping? What stats/metrics do you use? What is your selection process? Sorry for any language errors. English is not my first language. Greetings from Germany. GG
The thinking process centers on one specific thing.Wagering ONLY on plays where a measured valueto the bettor is present.There are many different methods to measure value. Some are more accuratethan others , but choose a method that you arecomfortable using to improve your results.For more on this , please read my Bowl and alsomy Nat. Champ. thread. You will find more detailin those and also my recap thread and the 2013Week 1 thread. These go right to the thinking processWelcome to the Forum and person Luck to you.
Thank you and good luck in reaching your goal this season
Hey WISEGUY36, thanks for all your effort you put into helping others so far. I want to start handicapping myself this season and just started watching CFB last year. What tips do you have for new handicappers? What is your thinking process while handicapping? What stats/metrics do you use? What is your selection process? Sorry for any language errors. English is not my first language. Greetings from Germany. GG
The thinking process centers on one specific thing.Wagering ONLY on plays where a measured valueto the bettor is present.There are many different methods to measure value. Some are more accuratethan others , but choose a method that you arecomfortable using to improve your results.For more on this , please read my Bowl and alsomy Nat. Champ. thread. You will find more detailin those and also my recap thread and the 2013Week 1 thread. These go right to the thinking processWelcome to the Forum and person Luck to you.
Thank you and good luck in reaching your goal this season
FWIW , There are a quite a few prominent teams that lost a significant number of starters on the defensive side due to graduation and early entrants to the NFL draft. This , coupled with some projected starters showing up on early injury reports may pose a problem for some teams early in the season.
Do your homework.
Be careful laying large numbers early.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
FWIW , There are a quite a few prominent teams that lost a significant number of starters on the defensive side due to graduation and early entrants to the NFL draft. This , coupled with some projected starters showing up on early injury reports may pose a problem for some teams early in the season.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.