I am not guessing Vegas' lines, I put out a line based on my estimated strength of teams, use it if it works for you, ignore if it doesn't, and if these are totally off according to your perception then fade.
Date Home team listed Away team
July 2 LA Sparks -7 Washington
Atlanta pik Liberty
Liberty are obviously not the same this year, and Tina Charles has not played as well as last year. The guard play of both the Dream and the Liberty is substandard. Sparks have been great as a dog this year, and poor at home...Sparks might be looking forward to their next game versus the Lynx and Washington is certainly capable of staying within the 7.
July 5 Dallas Wings -3 Atlanta Dream
San Antonio +5 Connecticut Sun
Phoenix +1 Washington Mystics
Wings stunk it up in the worst W performance of the year versus the Storm...Fred Williams was not on the bench, and I missed the reason why. Hopefully he'll be back, as the other coach had the Wings play slow-down controlled basketball, when their M.O. has been free lancing and running. Dream play good defense, but that is about it, as their offense is terrible....they should be THE quintessential UNDER team, in a season of OVERs.
San Antonio...despite the win are still terrible, but their bigs did make the difference against the Sky. Mariah Jefferson is a very good player, but she defers too much to the other players....if she decided to be the quarterback of the team and took more shots, her team would benefit. Connecticut should destroy a team like the Stars.
If the Mystics go down versus the Sparks, this sets up a good situation for them versus the Mercury....Taurasi is still a negative for the Mercury,....like a Kobe Bryant in his last few years. Last I looked she was shooting less than 40% from the floor, and she doesn't play defense either. Leaning Mystics.
July 6 Minnesota Lynx -5 LA Sparks
Seattle Storm -4 NY Liberty
Lynx has finals revenge, they are very strong from top to bottom and the big two, Parker and Ogwumike, of the Sparks are not superior to the Lynx' best two, the only team in the W that can say that. Problem for the Sparks is, after those two, there is a pretty steep drop off, their next three starters are only average and their bench, besides being able to shoot a little play terrible floor games.,...they are turnover machines. That could be the difference...that Minnesota exposes the rest of the Sparks team as not good enough.
Despite the Storm romp over the Wings, this team is below average...they can be trusted versus the lower echelon teams and they can't be played against the better ones. Problem is, the Liberty as road warriors hasn't happened this year.
July 7 Atlanta Dream -3 Indiana Fever
San Antonio +3- Phoenix Mercury
July 8 Conn Sun -3 Washington Mystics
Chicago Sky +8 Minnesota Lynx
Seattle Storm +4 LA Sparks
Fever looked great in their loss to the Sun at home,....their guard play was exceptional...if/when they learn to play on the road, they could be a covering machine....hasn't happened yet.
I wouldn't put it past the Mercury to sleepwalk enough for the Stars to hang around against them. If I'm getting 5 or more, I might be lured into playing the Stars.
Connecticut gets the Mystics at home....I expect to be ON the Sun unless the line is out of whack.
For the Sky their only hope for them is that Pondexter gets the flu and the Lynx suffer from a post-Sparks letdown.
Same with the Storm versus the Sparks, and more likely.....Sparks will be extended to the limit versus the Lynx and their bodies and minds might not be totally into going onto the road against a division rival, who'll be jacked up to play them. Might consider the Storm if getting 4 or so.