First of let me start by saying if you want long analysis and pages of stats go check out some reputable handicappers threads such as League capper or Zebra Killer or The Claw and soon to appear Scalbrines redemption thread. Very respected and very knowledgeable handicappers no doubt!
For myself stats are stats and what counts most is the score at the end of the game so for the big show here is my take. As mentioned above with the above said statisticians I know all about these stats myself and with all indications that I come up with Philadelphia is indeed the play but.....but....but...ahh yes the but.
I can't stand the patriots organization but I do respect Tom Brady as a quarterback and his accomplishments and man oh man he has many and is truly the best with NO argument form anyone I'm sure. I went 3-0 on my plays last week in the conference games and would of been 4-0 with my Jacksonville play had I played it but did not with my reasoning being that when I go against Brady he always comes and gets me in the end and Ironically the last time I went against him was last years Super bowl and after that display I swore never again to go against that man.....Ever!
So now I have to make a decision because I have been gambling for 40 years and have learned so much during that time span and here are a few that by trial and error that I have come to realize.
Never bet against Tiger woods in his prime because.....You WILL lose.
Never bet against Mike Tyson in his prime because...You WILL lose.
Never bet Nascar against Jimmie Johnson Because...You WILL lose.
Never Bet Against the bulls or Lakers in the Nineties Because...You WILL Lose.
Lay off the gimmicks (Parlays, round robins, Teasers...etc..etc..)
Straight plays are your best bet and bookies most hated players
Teasers In football in certain situations (Prime time) yes but NEVER in basketball.
I have made several mistakes in forty years as mentioned above so now more than ever my plays are thought out very carefully and very limited in total.
Now I'm down to one big game left in football and I see it as there is NOT a stat or anyone's analysis that will keep me from being on the side of the BEST quarterback to have EVER played the game with a coach and several players who have been there and done that on the biggest stage in pro sports....The Super bowl!
I may win I may lose no doubt it's called gambling but one thing I do know is if the eagles are down by two or more touchdowns at anytime in this game they are done! But if the Patriots are down by as much at anytime in this game with a Multi Super bowl MVP and a five time super bowl Champ on my side.....I'm willing to take my chances and for the Master to prevail and cover for me.
Most all of my plays are one unit thru out the year but for this finale I'm all In!
Patriots -4 (3 Units)
Patriots ml -200 (5 Units)
Under 48 ( 2 units) Eagles have No choice but to avoid a shootout with Tom Brady therefore utilizing and counting on the ground game as did Jacksonville. (Tic Toc Tic Toc)
Good luck to all players on whichever way you play this Super bowl Sunday.