Posted: 1/4/2013 11:50:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw:
It's called far more than 8 games, has won in every sport I've tried it, including MLB and and college football bowl games, has a very strong record in SB's including having the Pats the most overvalued team I'd ever seen going into the SB last year and calling for a Gaints cover.
I only listed last year's picks in the opening round of playoffs because this is the opening round and because I did not want to type-out a 30 chapter book.
The most interesting thing is many, many times the masses are picking against it, because of the nature of teams being better or worse........................... "than they appear".
It really is the most incredible thing I've ever seen...........................................and will have a big test this week but I suspect it will pass with flying colors....................................
Just for the record, you've made good predictions on many occasions, but, if I recall, the Miami Heat and Minnesota Lynx were decided(90% or more?) favorites to win the Finals in 2011 and 2012, respectively, with your methodology. We all know how those series' ended. It can and does sometimes go the other way with strictly stat based power rankings.
It also appears that "the masses" are not heavily on the Seahawks side. Not sure why you are making that inference. A lot of line movement has occurred in favor of the Skins in the last 24 hours---and there will undoubtedly be more turbulence as Sunday approaches. The key number of 3 points has been reached at a lot of books and I do not see money being heavily distributed on one side or the other come Sunday evening.
Additionally, I don't see a mismatch, either statistically or with the "eye-test", giving a large value edge to the Skins. The Skins eerily remind me of the Randall Cunningham led Eagles teams of the late 80's/early 90's and Vick led Falcons of the mid-2000's--in the sense that they lead the league in rushing statistically(which is likely a large factor in your calculations), but it's a bit of a smoke and mirror affair with the QB running a lot. The playoffs are different. Seattle has the D to curtail either Morris or RGIII; it's highly unlikely that both will run for significant yardage. Especially given RGIII's health, which is apparently being discounted as negligible by many. Unwise when wagering to assume his output(especially running) will be the same as earlier in the year.
Also, you(and others) have mentioned the susceptibility of Seattle's D to the run and the Skins supposedly better run D. If you break down some numbers beyond just YPC allowed, it's more than a little misleading. "Key stat battles" are easier to win when your opponents are of inferior quality or do not possess their best players when you play them.
Case in point, Seattle played six times against top 10 rushing teams, including 3 of their last 8 games when they went 7-1.
Conversely, Washington played only two top 10 rushing teams and none in their current 7 game winning streak. Seattle also played against top 15 rushers S. Jackson and F. Gore four times while Washington had the lucky luxury of its divisional opponents not having a single top 15 rusher and suffering timely injuries to their top players. Dallas was without DeMarco Murray in their 1st matchup and Philly was without LeSean McCoy in their 1st meeting(and also playing Foles in his first start).
Also, when the Skins played teams with great rushers, they were lucky as well. Against St. Louis, they were fortunate that Steven Jackson left in the 1st quarter with a groin injury because he had 9 carries for 58 yards already. Against TB, Doug Martin only got the ball 8 times(33 yards)--his lowest # of carries for the season. Adrian Peterson also carried the ball only 17 times(79 yards) against the Skins--his 2nd lowest # for the year. The Skins really shut down only one top 15 runner this year--that was Green-Ellis(17 carries, 38 yards). Ray Rice killed them for 6.1 ypc and 120 yards.
Skewed numbers perhaps? I think so. Not as reliable or predictive as most would like to believe. The Skins run D is not what it seems. Mirage comes to mind when you actually take the time to examine the reality behind the numbers.
Here are the Seahawks against top rushing teams/runners:
D. Murray---12 car, 44 yds
S. Jackson- 18 car, 55 yds
DeAngelo Williams- 6 car, 6 yds
Cam Newton--7 car, 42 yds
S. Ridley-16 car, 34 yds
F. Gore-16 car, 131 yds----(caveat: this was on the short week, on the road, after beating NE)
A. Peterson-17 car, 182 yds
C.J. Spiller-17 car, 103 yds---(caveat: 63 yards were in the 2nd half of a 50-17 blowout)
S. Greene- 15 car, 58 yds
M. Forte--21 car, 66 yds
C. Kaepernick--7 car, 31 yds
F. Gore---6 car, 28 yds
S. Jackson--11 car, 52 yds