Posted: 3/22/2012 11:13:55 AM
Let me elaborate - i came up with this system in 2009. Prior to that I tried a variety of methods to handicap baseball - looking at days of the week, left vs right, pitchers' era, frustrating losses etc. What i started to recognize - the opening line captrues all of this and more - me looking up left vs right doesn't correlate to winning $$$. This system i have described has had positive results $$$ and allows you to take your opinions out of the equation and simply use the data to make the decisions for you. I started this in May 2009 and have recorded the results of games pretty consistently since then. I have made money the first half of the season - i realized after the trade deadline that teams that need to win seem to win and pull games out - thus i stopped using this system the second half of the season.
To help understand this let's look at last years pitchers for Baltimore and Boston (used them b/c they are first in the alphabet) - data from sagarin:
Guthrie: Rank 35 - Mob - 12.46 - Ricky 2.16
Following the formula listed (35 + (12 - 2)) = 45
Lester: Rank 22 - Mob 11.83 - Ricky 5.71
(22 + ( 12 - 6)) = 28
We now have two composites 45 and 28.
On paper lester is the better choice. Let's say the odds makers have lester 150 = a Solid favorite (SOF) - Guthrie is away and Lester is at home.
I would search my data base for previous scenarios. My data base looks like this (copied directly from it):
When i did a search and find - i didn't find an exact match of 45 - 28 with a home team SOF. I found 47-28 - this would still tell me to go with Guthrie vice lester. Once again ideal but close is good as well - if the run line price isn't too bad I may consider that but most likely take guthrie on the m/l. After the game is over, i would add the 45-28 -result to the data base.
I hate guessing - prefer using this algorithm to help me make decisions - and it has proven to work. Zcecil said 95% don't care - he is absolutely correct - just like a classroom can be - tell me what's on the test vice learning something. I try to follow Einstein's saying - don't seek to be successful but seek to be valuable. This has proven to work for me or i would not be sharing it - if your willing to put the time in and recognize it takes some work - it may work for you as well.
Hope this clarified i'm not throwing out a theory but have applied it and found success.