JAPAN
5-3 vs Brazil
5-2 vs China
3-6 vs Cuba
Cuba has 5 on Brazil and 12 on China, Japan's pitching has not been as expected and all teams played generally scored less in their games vs other teams than vs Japan.
DUTCH
5-0 Korea
2-8 Taipei
4-1 Australia
Korea, who lost 5-0 to the Dutch, beat Australia 6-0 and upset Taipei (The Nether's one bad loss) 3-2, but also lost to Australia 8-3. Pitching/denese showed sings of weakness but seems to be improving and the pitcher analysis to follow suggests a good game.
TOKYO DOME
More hitter-friendly than most of the first round parks. 'Normal' dimensions, scouting report is that the ball carriers well due to the 'pressure' in the dome, there is a 12' home run fence that will keep some balls in the park, and these is a large amount of foul territory which of course helps the pitchers.
That said, it is considered a slight hitters park, and the stats to this point suggest it is a great park to bet an over...
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Cuba 14, Chinese Taipei 0
That is an average of 9.33 runs per game, over-under posted at 6.5
Which brings us to the starting pitchers, who are able to pitch a little deeper into the game in round 2...
MAEDA (Japan)
Excellent statistics. Throws with power and control, he only walks about 1.8 batters per nine innings, not a high strikeout pitcher but boasts a career 2.47 ERA and in more recent and significant tournaments and the past year that is most like 2.0 or even less.
CORDEMANS (Netherlands)
The first thing that stands out is his age. 38 years old. However, he has great stats and has been a pitcher that has carryied great demand in his league for many years. Finesse pitcher, 88mph fastball, throws a changeuip, slider, and curveball, and posts a solid ERA (around 3.2) and solid K/BB ration.
Odds just about everywhere are 6.5 on the total, most are heavily jucing the sides in this game and you can't get Japan at better than -200 with some going up to -240, Netherlands is getting less than +170 almost everywhere, but my bookie has +170 which is nice for me.
MY PICK...
We all know the quick perception of these two teams. Japan is the only team to win a WBC championship, 2-0, and a strong favorite (tied at #1 at many books) and the Netherlands has in the past and continues to be the pesky underdog that shows up.
So far THIS year, Japan has really done nothing impressive. The have been weak in scoring against (pitching/defense) and their offense while score 5-5-3 is not that good! That was against China and Japan (and Cuba) who have all been exposed much more by other teams.
THIS year the Netherlands had a rough game, maybe game-and-a-half from a pitching/defensive perspective but have been solid lately and bring their ace to the mound tonight (as do Japan).
I really, really want to take this over. But all numbers show that the scoring in this game should be expected to be in the range of 8-10. 6.5 is a key number that is very vulnerable from and under-bettors perspective, very over-friendly. I simply don't believe the books are giving this one away, strong pitching from the starters, both could very easily go 6 innings And should average 1-2 runs against (Maeda has the better numbers but are facing the very slightly more impressive bats, Cordemans has earned his ace status and Japan has not shown to be something to worry about too much offensively). Now, as far as apublic perception goes, if you assume that nobody is doing almost ANY research the first though is that the netherlands is a lame duck of a team, and Japan is generally known for pitching and not offensive dominance. I suppose I could be over-analyzing the line placement, as many's first guess may be something like 3-5 for Japan and 0-2 for Netherlands or about 5 total runs.
.5 unit on OVER 6.5 (-130)
The real value in this one is on the side. Maeda will be difficult, that but 2.0 ERA is not anything that can be compared to MLB or even AAA statistics. Of course that said, the bats in the Netherlands probably aren't that competitive either, but it is their best of the best including some major league players and the team has proven to be effective on offense.
From a human/motivational perspective all quotes form the Nethelands show a sign of a very loose team who pretty much took the day off yesterday, they have nothing to lose as they have already 'done it again' and they are a good team that knows they can shock everyone following the WBC tonight/this morning. Japan. Faces. A lot. Of pressure. They could easily be scared of this matchup where they are facing a team that everyone expects them to win, but they know that this is a fiesty opponent and they are one loss away from being the first 'favorite' to be eliminated
1 unit NETHERLANDS RL +1.5 (-105)
2 units NETHERLANDS ML (+170)
Hit me with some feedback boys!