WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational Picks and Predictions: The Stars Go Golfing in Memphis

Open Championship winner Collin Morikawa is playing the best golf on the tour and will be in the mix in a star-studded field this weekend. Who might challenge him? Check out golf picks, predictions, and best bets for the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

Aug 3, 2021 • 13:48 ET • 5 min read
Collin Morikawa PGA Golf
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The top players on the PGA Tour go “Walking in Memphis” when the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational tees off at TPC Southwind this week.

Not only do golfers have to battle a star-studded field consisting of the Top 50 in the World Golf Rankings but also a challenging track that boasts smaller greens and the southern heat, which should hit the mid-90s by the weekend.

Brooks Koepka is the frontrunner at +1,200 odds to win, followed by Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa at +1,400. 

We give our golf picks, predictions, and best bets for the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational (August 5-8).

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational betting stats that matter

TPC Southwind runs 7,233 yards – a pretty standard length – but is stingy when it comes to the greens, boasting an average of just 4,300 square feet of putting surface. That means pinpoint accuracy on approach and greens in regulation should be weighed heavier when handicapping this field. 

Looking at the 2021 PGA Tour stats, guys like Morikawa (+1,400), Daniel Berger (+2,000), and Corey Conners (+5,000) are in and around the Top 10 in greens in regulation percentage. 

Adding to the difficulty of those diminutive dance floors is the hot Tennessee summer. Unlike Marc Cohen’s 1991 classic, there’s no pouring rain in sight for the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational, which means the course is going to play hard and fast, making those smaller greens even more unforgiving on approach and scrambling shots. 

Webb Simpson (+3,000), Patrick Cantlay (+2,500), and Louis Oosthuizen (+2,200) are all among the best in scrambling on tour this season. 

 

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational outright winner bets

Who will win the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational? Here are our best picks:

Collin Morikawa (+1,400)

Fresh off a strong showing at the Olympics (rallied with a remarkable final round to contend for bronze) and a Claret Jug at the Open Championship, Morikawa is playing the best golf of anyone on tour. The American has finished inside the Top 5 in three straight tournaments and has five Top-10 showings in his last six events.

As mentioned above, Morikawa ranks second in greens in regulation percentage (72.05 percent) and tops the tour in shots gained: tee to green (2.044) this season. He finished 20th at this tournament last July, putting in weekend scores of 67 and 66 to finish 6-under par after a slow start to the event.

Daniel Berger (+2,000)

Berger loves this course. He’s won the St. Jude Invitational twice (2016 and 2017) and finished T2 last year, three strokes behind the leader. He has everything you could want heading into the week.

He’s finished eighth at the Open Championship and seventh at the U.S. Open, showing he can step up against elite competition, and boasts the eighth-best greens in regulation percentage (70.34 percent). The Florida native will also have no issue with the hotter temperatures moving into Memphis this weekend (the ole “feels like” temps are expected to top 100 degrees). And, this being a WGC event, everybody plays all four rounds. 

Sergio Garcia (+6,000)

Garcia is putting a poor spring showing behind him and has finished 25th or better in his last four outings, including Top-20 efforts at the U.S. Open and Open Championship. In fact, if not for a Round 3 73 blooper, the Spaniard would have placed much higher at St. George’s as he rebounded with a stellar final round 66.

Sergio sits 10th in greens in regulation percentage (70.09 percent), is third in SG: off-the-tee (.804), and ranks second in going for the green, making 75 percent of those shots. His recent history at TPC Southwind isn’t great – finishing 35th and 40th – which is why his outright price sees him further down the odds board. 

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational matchup predictions

Corey Conners over Abraham Ancer (-110)

Conners’ profile fits this course layout, sitting ninth in both SG: off-the-tee and SG: approach to green as well as 11th in driving accuracy (69.43), which will pay out seeing this track is littered with strategic water and sand hazards. The Canadian seems to play up to the level of competition in big events. He finished eighth at Augusta, 17th in the PGA Championship, missed the cut at the U.S. Open, and placed 15th at St. George’s last month.

Ancer is no slouch but has stumbled a bit after a red-hot spring in which he placed inside the Top 10 in three straight tournaments. He bookended a fourth-place finish at the Travellers Championship with a missed cut at the U.S. Open and a 59th-place showing at the Open Championship. He’s coming off of a 14th-place effort at the Tokyo Olympics. 

Rory McIlroy over Justin Thomas (EVEN)

Rory was among a number of Olympic golfers duking it out for a bronze medal in Tokyo last week. And while the Irishman fell short, he did rebound from a bad showing at St. George’s in the Open Championship. He’s placed Top 20 in three of his last five events, including a win at the Wells Fargo back in May, and posted a T4 in this tournament in 2019 – featuring a score of 62 in Round 2.

Thomas is the defending champ at Southwind, hence the price tag in this matchup prop. He’s coming off a rough outing in the Olympics and has gone missed cut, 40th, 42nd, 19th, and 40th in his last five tour outings. Piss-poor putting has been the main culprit for Thomas’ summer slide and the concrete greens this week won’t play nice.

 

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational prop bets

Louis Oosthuizen Top 20 finish (-150)

Picking a Top 20 spot may be playing it safe considering just how hot Oosthuizen has been in 2021. The South African has placed inside the Top 3 in three straight events, Top 5 in five of his last six showings, and outside the Top 20 only twice since February – a stretch of 10 tournaments. In two appearances at Southwind, he’s gone T6 and T20 and he ranks among the top “scramblers” on tour. This feels like a stress-free bet at a moderate price.

Webb Simpson Top 10 finish (+275)

Simpson placed T12 at the 2020 St. Jude’s and runner-up in 2019, so he’s comfortable on this track. He’s been up and down all summer, placing 19th in the Open Championship on the heels of two missed cuts and a neck injury that slowed him down in the spring. He’s 21st in driving accuracy (67.73) and the No. 1 golfer in scrambling (67.07): two stats that suit this hazard-laden golf course.

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational betting card

  • Collin Morikawa outright (+1,400)
  • Daniel Berger outright (+2,000)
  • Sergio Garcia outright (+6,000)
  • Corey Conners over Abraham Ancer (-110)
  • Rory McIlroy over Justin Thomas (EVEN)
  • Louis Oosthuizen Top 20 finish (-150)
  • Webb Simpson Top 10 finish (+275)

Picks made 08/03/2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET.

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