Golf odds for the 2020-21 PGA Tour season is now upon us, concluding a grueling offseason and providing PGA bettors with a much-needed fix after a whopping three days without links action.
Sarcasm? Of course! But you won't hear us complaining about seeing the PGA Tour tee it up in Napa at the Safeway Open, less than a week after Dustin Johnson claimed the TOUR Championship and FedExCup title (along with that sweet $15 million grand prize).
Johnson won't be teeing it up this week, nor will the majority of the tour's top players from 2020 — this field is weak and wide-open by recent PGA standards – but that only makes the betting opportunities more intriguing.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our free golf picks, predictions and best bets for the Safeway Open.
Safeway Open betting stats that matter
The North Course at Silverado Resort and Spa is a 7,166-yard, par-72 configuration that isn't going to provide much of a challenge...as long as players don't completely spray their drives. The rough isn't the slightest bit punishing. In fact, this recent quote from Cameron Champ says it all: "Sometimes I don’t even care if I’m in the rough, it doesn’t really matter." So driving distance is by far the most important stat here, since leaving short irons into reasonable-length par-4s should yield plenty of birdie chances.
And that leads to the other stat that will matter most: GIR Percentage. Players who produce the most birdie opportunities overall should have a field day at Silverado, between the non-punitive rough, par-4s on the shorter end of the spectrum and putting greens that will run around 11 on the Stimpmeter. Secondary stats to track this week include SG: Approach (though most players should see solid results here) and Par-4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards.
Safeway Open outright winner bets
Just how diluted is the field this week? Phil Mickelson is a co-favorite (we love Lefty a lot, but he really shouldn't be co-fave material at the majority of PGA Tour events in the 2020s), tied with Si Woo Kim at +2,000, followed by Brendan Steele at +2,200 and Joel Dahmen at +2,500.
Who will win the Safeway Open? Here's our best guess:
Phil Mickelson (+2,000)
Bet you didn't see THAT coming. While we'd much prefer Mickelson at better odds, we'll take the 20/1 play here. Mickelson can still grip it and rip it, ranking inside the Top 60 in driving distance in 2020 (301.5 yards) and his driving accuracy isn't as big of a concern here, since the rough won't make life miserable. And while his GIR percentage is also a bit rough, he's deft around the greens and has plenty of experience with poa annua greens, which can cause a bit of havoc with their tendency to become bumpy.
Cameron Davis (+3,500)
With so many of the top players not in action this week, you have to strongly consider where the players in the field ranked in specific stats in 2019. And Davis is one of the biggest all-around threats in the field based on last year's rankings: he was 20th in driving distance (308.0), 68th in SG: Approach (0.213) and 44th in SG: Total (0.560). Those numbers are quite impressive, given that most people ahead of him are staying home. Davis is our favorite outright play of the week.
Safeway Open matchup predictions
Joel Dahmen Over Emiliano Grillo (+100)
Dahmen would have been our third outright choice (and we'd still recommend him at +2,500 if you have a few bucks to toss his way), but we're saving him for this matchup because he has one significant edge over Grillo. While both players were strong in SG: Off the Tee and SG: Approach, Grillo was one of the worst putters among PGA Tour regulars last season, averaging nearly one lost stroke per round. Dahmen wasn't great by any stretch, but that edge should make him the superior play here.
Sergio Garcia Over Shane Lowry (-110)
Did you know that Garcia ranked fourth on the entire PGA Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green in 2020? The rest of his game was a bit of a disaster, but his ability to generate birdie chances (he was 60th in GIR percentage last season) makes him a dangerous option at the 2021 season opener. Consider this a "quantity over quality" pick with regard to scoring chances. Garcia should give himself a lot of birdie putts, and that makes him a strong play over Lowry — even if he doesn't make a lot of them.
Safeway Open prop bets
Harold Varner III First Round Leader (+4,500)
Varner had an excellent 2020 season, and a big part of it stemmed from his ability to get off to a terrific start. Varner posted the 13th-best first-round scoring average on the PGA Tour at 69.32. He boasts the all-around game (18th in SG: Total) to place well in this tournament, but we're particularly enthusiastic about this play given just how dominant he has been in Round 1.
Doc Redman Top-20 Finish (+200)
Betting on Redman is a bit of a roller-coaster: he made 17 of 24 cuts in 2020, while finishing inside the Top 25 seven times. His final eight tournaments of the season featured four Top-21 finishes...and three missed cuts. So yeah, he's a bit of an all-or-nothing case, but in a weaker field, Redman's profile is a lot stronger – and after finishing 40th in SG: Total for the season, he does have the chops to give himself plenty of birdie chances and finish inside the Top 20 this week.
Safeway Open betting card
- Phil Mickelson (+2,000)
- Cameron Davis (+3,500)
- Joel Dahmen Over Emiliano Grillo (+100)
- Sergio Garcia Over Shane Lowry (-110)
- Harold Varner III First Round Leader (+4,500)
- Doc Redman Top-20 Finish (+200)
Where can I bet on PGA golf?
With PGA betting growing in popularity, pretty much all online sportsbooks will offer golf odds for the Safeway Open. Check out our top listings page for the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what PGA Tour odds they have available.
