It what may actually be the lightest field on the schedule, the PGA Tour is heading south for the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
World No. 1 Jon Rahm won here a year ago as a short +450 favorite and with all the success he's had in 2023, he's fetching even shorter odds this time around as he looks to defend his title.
We break down his chances and more in our Mexico Open betting preview below, including outright odds, free golf picks, and more.
Live odds to win 2023 Mexico Open
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Mexico Open picks and predictions
Patrick Rodgers Top 20 (+145 at FanDuel)
Considering the lack of top talent in the field this week, this is a great opportunity for Rodgers to build on some recent success.
He finished 10th in Mexico a year ago despite having just two prior Top-20 finishes last season. That’s far from the case this season. He went on a run of six straight Top 30s back in the fall (almost exclusively light fields), including a T3 in Bermuda and three other Top-16 finishes.
He’s already at seven Top 20s for the 2022-23 season and while he missed a plethora of cuts between January and March, he enters the week in nice form having finished fifth at the Valero Texas Open and T19 at the RBC Heritage.
His season-long numbers aren’t anything to write home about but marks of 33rd in total strokes gained and 41st in strokes gained tee-to-green are better than you might expect considering his status as a back-end Tour pro.
Almost all his best finishes have come against the lightest fields. This week is another golden opportunity to cash in.
Cameron Champ to miss the cut (+120 at bet365)
Cameron Champ is a three-time PGA Tour winner and there was a time that saw him touted as one of the hotter young talents in golf. That time is long gone.
He’s on a run of six straight missed cuts going back to the Farmers in late January and has made the weekend just twice in 13 Tour starts this season. Going back even further: since the start of last season, he’s made the cut just 10 times in 32 starts and of those 10, four were finishes of T46 or worse. That’s… not good.
His driver remains the strength of his game but he’s consistently falling well short in every other area and a quick look at his strokes gained numbers will tell you all you need to know. Yes, the field is extremely light but that won’t magically result in him playing better golf.
His price to miss the cut (+120) has remained relatively close to even money as he did finish T6 here a year ago. However, that came after a T10 at the Masters in the start prior; a bet on him to make the weekend here is a bet on lightning to strike twice.
Betting on guys to miss the cut may not be the best way to live, but I expect it to be a profitable one this week.
Mexico Open field and favorites
All things considered, no one is surprised to see Jon Rahm alone atop the Mexico Open odds board — or any odds board for that matter — but the defending champion is seeing odds as short as +260 to repeat this week.
And while the reigning Masters champ did win as a +450 favorite a year ago, we haven't seen someone this short on the PGA Tour since Tiger Woods won as a +275 favorite at the 2013 Arnold Palmer. Rahm was also a +375 favorite to win the Fortinet Championship in 2021. It's a pretty fascinating subplot to his title defense.
The only other star in the field is Tony Finau, who finished runner-up a year ago after firing a final-round 64. He's on the board at 8/1.
Aside from those two stars, there are just seven golfers in the field who sit inside the OWGR Top 100. Some of the notables include Gary Woodland (+2,800), Maverick McNealy (+3,500), and Davis Riley (+2,800) after his win at the Zurich Classic last week.
Covers golf betting tools
Mexico Open recent winners and odds history
Let's take a look at some recent Mexico Open winners and their closing odds to win:
| Year | Golfer | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Jon Rahm | +450 |
Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.
Mexico Open Odds FAQs
Defending champion Jon Rahm is the current betting favorite this week, with insanely short +275 odds to defend his title.
The purse for the 2023 Mexico Open is $7.7 million, with $1.4 million going to the winner.
This year's tournament will be held at Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, Mexico from April 27-30.
