The Ottawa Senators will look to cure their West Coast blues with a home date against the Detroit Red Wings at the Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday, December 5.
Ottawa has a new-look No. 1 line with Josh Norris slotting in the middle, and he headlines our Red Wings vs. Senators predictions for tonight’s Atlantic Division clash.
Get ready for this 7 p.m. ET puck drop on TSN 5 with our NHL picks.
Senators vs Red Wings prediction
My Senators pick
Josh Norris Over 0.5 points (-120 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Ottawa Senators are sticking with a top line of Josh Norris between wingers Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson for tonight’s tilt against the Detroit Red Wings, and it’s a cushy gig for the center.
Tkachuk paces the Sens in goals, and Batherson leads the way in primary assists. Norris has also been cooking with a respectable seven points — five goals — through his past 11 contests.
This new-look No. 1 line also was solid last time out against the Anaheim Ducks. The trio drove 5-on-5 possession with a 58.8 Corsi For percentage, was on the ice for an even-strength goal, and won the expected goals battle with a 93.6% clip.
It’s a small sample, but all three also skate on the No. 1 power-play unit, and Ottawa paces the NHL with a 36.7 PP% on home ice and ranks third overall with a 28.1% mark.
The matchup works Thursday, too.
The Red Wings head to the Canadian Tire Centre with a league-low 65.3 penalty-kill percentage, and they’re reeling along a three-game losing skid while allowing 3.34 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
Goaltending is also an issue with No. 1 Cam Talbot (lower body) out of action because he was holding down the fort to the tune of a .915 save percentage with 0.26 goals saved above average per 60 minutes. His .950 and 1.17 marks at 5-on-5 rank second in the league among regular starters, too.
Senators vs Red Wings Odds analysis
There has been a small move to the Detroit side of this moneyline, with the Red Wings trading at +147 through Pinnacle on Thursday morning after opening at +152.
It isn’t enough of an adjustment to sway me from siding with the Sens tonight because Ottawa has the better underlying numbers at 5-on-5, in addition to the highlighted special-teams edge.
This total has been on the move, and Pinnacle has tested 6.0 multiple times after opening at 6.5. The total has returned to 6.5 as of Thursday morning.
With how poorly both teams have played defensively, including Ottawa playing to the Over in five straight, I’m not surprised to see buyback on the Over when the total drops to 6.0. Still, Detroit ranks last in expected goals per 60 at 5-on-5 on the road, so I also wouldn’t be surprised if this proved to be a sneaky Under spot.
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Senators vs Red Wings odds
Senators vs Red Wings live odds
Senators vs Red Wings opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa -1.5 (+144) | Detroit +1.5 (-167)
- Moneyline: Ottawa -173 | Detroit +152
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+105) | Under 6.5 (-120)
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
Senators vs Red Wings trend
The Ottawa Senators have hit the game total Over in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.45 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Red Wings.
How to watch Senators vs Red Wings
| Location: | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-5-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RDSI, TSN5 |
Senators vs Red Wings latest injuries
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