Rangers vs Islanders Picks: Isles Too Tough on Home Ice?

Semyon Varlamov has been outstanding behind a stout Islanders defense this season, going 16-7-3 with a 2.17 GAA and a save percentage of .922.

Apr 9, 2021 • 16:42 ET
Semyon Varlamov NHL New York Islanders

The Battle of New York will take place once again as the New York Islanders host their in-state rivals the New York Rangers on Friday night. 

The Islanders have been the best NHL betting option at home this season, turning a profit of $1015 (based on $100 units) at Nassau Coliseum. Oddsmakers like their chances of winning at home once again, installing the Islanders as -140 favorites.

Here are our free picks and predictions for the Rangers vs. Islanders on Friday, April 9, with the puck dropping at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Rangers vs Islanders odds

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NHL sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

The Islanders went up as -142 chalk Thursday night at FanDuel, dipped to -138, peaked at -148 and are at -144 as of 5 p.m. ET today. Ticket count and money are running 4/1 on the Islanders. The total opened at 5.5 flat (-110), and the price went to Over -120, then back to Over -112, with 69 percent of bets/61 percent of cash on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Rangers at Islanders betting preview

Injuries

Rangers: Jack Johnson D (Out).
Islanders: Michael Dal Colle LW (Out), Anders Lee LW (Out), Johnny Boychuk D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Islanders are 17-4 in their last 21 games as a favorite, while the Rangers are 7-18 in their last 25 as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Islanders.

Moneyline pick

The Islanders are in first place in the East Division while sitting fifth in the NHL standings with a .700 point percentage. The Rangers are sixth in the division and 18th in the league with a .526 point percentage.

Barry Trotz's squad is coming off a shootout win against the Flyers yesterday and has won four games in a row. After a shaky opening month to the year, the Islanders have looked terrific, going 21-7 over their last 28 games. 

While goals haven't been easy for the Islanders to come by, they've been winning thanks to lockdown defensive play and sensational goaltending. The Islanders are allowing the fewest high-danger chances per 60 minutes at 5v5 hockey while allowing the second-fewest goals per game in the league with 2.28.  

The Rangers are fresh off a 5-2 loss to the Penguins and have now split each of their previous seven two-game sets. Starting goalie Igor Shesterkin was in nets for the loss last night and Alexandar Georgiev is projected to get the nod today. Georgiev has struggled this year, going 5-5-2 with a 2.92 GAA and a save percentage of .897. He also hasn't played since March 19.

The Rangers have been inconsistent on both ends of the ice this season, and have gone just 1-5 in their last six games without rest. The Islanders have been excellent on the tail end of back-to-backs, going 22-6 in their previous 28 contests without a day off. With the Rangers' inconsistent play and the Islanders having a big advantage in nets, back the red-hot home side. 

PREDICTION: ML Islanders (-140)

Over/Under pick

This is the fourth time this season these rivals have met up and each of the previous games has gone below the total. Interestingly, every game has seen a shutout, with Islanders goalie Semyon Varlamov picking up a pair of goose eggs and Georgiev picking up one.   

The Isles had backup netminder Ilya Sorokin between the pipes last night, which means it's Varlamov's time to shine once again. The veteran has been outstanding behind a stout Islanders defense this season, going 16-7-3 with a 2.17 GAA and a save percentage of .922. 

That said, the Islanders are a modest 15th in the league in scoring with 2.93 goals per game. If you guessed the Isles' low-scoring offense and strong defensive play makes them a good Under play, you would be absolutely correct. They are 15-9-1 to the Under this season when Varlamov starts and have gone 4-1 to the Under in their last five games overall. 

Meanwhile, the Rangers have gone 6-2-1 to the Under in their last nine games without rest, while going 16-7-2 to the Under in their previous 25 contests as underdogs. Back the Under again. 

PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-104)

Rangers vs Islanders betting card

  • ML Islanders (-140)
  • Under 5.5 (-104)
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