Penguins vs Lightning Picks and Predictions: Tampa's Three-Peat Quest Begins vs. Hobbled Pens

Tampa Bay's quest for a three-peat begins Tuesday night against the Penguins. The Bolts are big NHL betting favorites against a Pittsburgh team that is mediocre at best... and is not at its best right now with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin injured.

Oct 12, 2021 • 15:11 ET • 4 min read
Andrei Vasilevskiy Tampa Bay Lightning NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The puck drops on the 2021-22 NHL season on Tuesday night as the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning welcome the Pittsburgh Penguins to Amalie Arena.

The Lightning enter the season with the second-best futures odds to win the cup at +600 while the Pens are near the middle of the pack at +2,500. NHL betting odds expect Tampa Bay to take care of business at home in its season opener with the Bolts opening as -165 favorites before the line shifted to -193.

Here are our best free Penguins vs. Lightning picks and predictions for Tuesday, October 12, with the puck dropping at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Penguins vs Lightning odds

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Penguins vs Lightning picks

Picks made on 10/11/2021 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Penguins vs Lightning game info

Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
Date: Tuesday, October 12, 2021
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, Rogers Sportsnet

Penguins vs Lightning betting preview

Injuries

Penguins: Sidney Crosby C (Out), Zach Astron-Reese LW (Questionable), Evgeni Malkin C (Out).
Lightning: Cal Foote D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Penguins vs Lightning head-to-head record

Penguins: 0-2-1, five goals for (2019-20 season).
Lightning: 3-0-0, nine goals for (2019-20 season).

Betting trend to know

The Lightning are 51-19 in their last 70 home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Lightning.

After winning the last two Stanley Cups, it goes without saying that the Tampa Bay Lightning are pretty good. This is a loaded squad that has firepower up front, talent on the blueline, and arguably the best goalie in the world in last year's Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. 

While there might be questions about their depth after the offseason losses of Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman, and Barclay Goodrow, they did add Corey Perry and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare. Bellemare isn't going to put the puck in the net but he's strong on faceoffs (one of the few weaknesses Tampa Bay had last year), while Perry had a very productive preseason and looks like he has something left in the tank at 36.

The Penguins are at a crossroads in their franchise history. They are still a playoff-caliber team, led by a pair of aging Hall of Famers in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, but they don't seem good enough to make another run at the Cup and haven't made it past the first round in the last three seasons.

The Pens offense is still very reliant on Crosby and Malkin, which doesn't bode well for their early-season success this year. Malkin will be out for at least two months as he recovers from knee surgery and while Crosby practiced for the first time on Saturday since undergoing wrist surgery and he's unlikely to suit up this week.

The Pens also have question marks between the pipes, where netminder Tristan Jarry was inconsistent last season and crumbled in the first round of the playoffs against the Islanders.

The Lightning are very tough to beat at home, where they have gone 51-19 in their previous 70 games. They have also won five straight contests at Amalie Arena against the Pens, which has us taking them to win in regulation.

The total opened at a relatively high number of 6 and is slightly juiced towards the Over, but there's plenty of reasons to consider the Under.

The Pens will likely be missing their two superstar forwards and even past their prime Crosby and Malkin combined for 90 points in 88 games last season. With both of those guys missing down the middle, Jeff Carter and Evan Rodrigues will center the top two lines — which is a massive downgrade.

In addition, Vasilevskiy is a beast at home, where he went 18-2 with a 1.75 goals-against average and a save percentage of .936 last season.

Although Jarry is nowhere near the level of Vasilevskiy, he has still been a solid option during the regular season and is only two years removed from an All-Star campaign in 2019-20, when he posted a 2.43 GAA with a save percentage of .921. And in two career games against the Bolts, he has turned aside 78 of 83 shots.

With the Under going 11-5-3 in Tampa Bay's last 19 games, back it again on Tuesday. 

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