The red-hot Toronto Maple Leafs look to continue their early-season success as they head out west to face the Edmonton Oilers in NHL action Thursday night.
The Oilers have stumbled out of the gate this season and NHL betting odds expect them to come out on the losing side once again tonight, installing them as slim +115 home underdogs.
We break down NHL odds for this North Division showdown as we bring you our best Maple Leafs vs. Oilers picks and predictions for January 28, with the puck dropping at 10 p.m. ET.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers Betting Preview
Injuries
Maple Leafs: Jack Campbell G (Out), Joe Thornton C (Out).
Oilers: Evan Bouchard D (Questionable), Oscar Klefbom D (Out), Mike Smith G (Out), Gaetan Haas C (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Maple Leafs are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Edmonton. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Oilers.
NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings opened this matchup a -110 pick 'em, but the visiting Maple Leafs stretched to -132 by early this morning and stuck there all day. As of 7 p.m. ET, three hours before the puck drops, the Leafs are still -132 while taking 57 percent of bets and 78 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total opened at 6.5 (Over -113) and made a modest move to 6.5 (Under -114), with 51 percent of bets on the Over and 72 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline Pick
Which team has the most wins in the NHL this year? That's right, it's the Toronto Maple Leafs, who look like a tough team to tangle with – at least in the regular season. It remains to be seen if this Toronto squad has the grit to go far in the Stanley Cup playoffs, but they have looked good in their 6-2 start.
The Buds are averaging 3.25 goals per game and have been monsters on the power play, converting on 10 of 24 opportunities with the man advantage. But perhaps most importantly, Toronto has been stingy on the defensive end of the ice, allowing just 2.17 goals per game over their last six contests – two of which came against Edmonton.
The Oilers have stumbled to a 3-5 start to their season and are fresh off a 6-4 loss to the Jets. The same issues that plagued them last year appear to be a problem once again: a dearth of scoring depth behind Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, brutal defensive play, and goalies not good enough to make up for it.
Edmonton is 26th in the league in goals allowed with 3.63 per game, and despite McDavid and Draisaitl ranking among the Top-5 scorers in the NHL, as a team, they rank a modest 17th with 2.88 goals scored per contest.
With the Maple Leafs 5-1 in their last six games and the Oilers just 2-6 in their previous eight home contests going back to last year, back Toronto on the moneyline at -130.
PREDICTION: Toronto (-135)
Over/Under Pick
When these teams met up last week, they went below the total of 6.5 on both occasions. That said, the analytics are pointing towards the Over today. While Maple Leafs goalie Frederik Andersen has looked sharp recently, his save percentage of .896 this season leaves something to be desired.
The veteran goalie hasn't actually had a season with a GA under 2.75 in four years, and now faces an Edmonton team that is first in the league in high-danger chances generated per 60 minutes.
Speaking of high-danger scoring chances, both teams have been allowing their fair share with Edmonton 24th in the league in HDCA/60 and Toronto 25th.
And while we've already mentioned Edmonton's two superstar forwards, Toronto has plenty of offensive firepower of its own. Mitch Marner is tied with McDavid for the league lead with 12 points, while Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares round out a formidable group of forwards.
With the Over 14-6 in Toronto's last 20 road games, while also cashing in five of Edmonton's last seven contests at home, back it again tonight.
PREDICTION: Over 6.5 (+100)
Maple Leafs vs Oilers Betting Card
- Toronto (-135)
- Over 6.5 (+100)
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