The NHL betting board for Tuesday is headlined by a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup finals between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Dallas Stars. The Bolts ended up winning the Cup last summer and are off to another great start in 2021, so it should come as no surprise that they are -165 road favorites for this contest.
Here is our best free Lightning vs. Stars picks and predictions for NHL action on Tuesday, March 23, with the puck dropping at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars betting preview
Injuries
Lightning: Nikita Kucherov RW (Out), Mitchell Stephens C (Out).
Stars: Joel Kiviranta LW (Questionable), Radek Faksa C (Questionable), Alexander Radulov RW (Questionable), Tyler Seguin C (Out), Ben Bishop G (Out), Mark Pysyk D (Out), Stephen Johns D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Stars are 3-13 in their last 16 games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Stars.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTampa Bay hit the PointsBet USA odds board as -165 chalk Monday afternoon, quickly got to -180, reverted to -160, then stretched to -185 by midafternoon today. As of 4:30 p.m. ET, the Lightning are at -180. "Eighty-eight percent of moneyline tickets and 93 percent of moneyline cash on Tampa Bay," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said. The total opened at 5.5 (Under -120), and that price is now out to -145, with 54 percent of tickets on the Over and 67 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
These teams have already clashed three times this season, with the Lightning winning all three by a total score of 11-3. As a matter of fact, going back to last year's Cup finals, the Bolts have won seven of the last eight in the head-to-head.
The Lightning again look like the best team in the NHL. Tampa Bay has won four games in a row and tops the league in point percentage. This is a team that dominates on both ends of the ice, ranking first in the league in scoring with 3.68 goals per game, while ranking fifth with 2.32 goals allowed.
After a strong start, the Stars have struggled this season. Dallas is tied for 20th in the league in point percentage and is fresh off a shootout loss to the Predators, which dropped its record to 2-5 over the last seven games. The Stars have been strong on defense, ranking seventh in the league in goals allowed with 2.50 gpg, but are once again struggling to generate goals—Dallas is just 24th in the league in goals for per 60 minutes at even strength.
The Stars have also struggled at home lately, going just 2-10 in their last 12 games at American Airlines Center. That doesn't bode well for their chances against a Tampa Bay team that travels very well, going 36-16 in their previous 52 away contests.
There's really no reason to back the Stars against the most dominant team in the league. If you are tempted to get a better number on Tampa Bay by taking them on the regulation moneyline or the puck line, keep in mind that Dallas has eight overtime losses this season—the second-most in the league. We'll stick to the good old-fashioned moneyline at a solid value of -165.
PREDICTION: Tampa Bay ML (-165)
Over/Under pick
The Lightning have one of the best goalies in the league in Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is 20-3-1 with a 1.86 goals-against average and a .933 save percentage. But with the Over/Under for this game opening at a low 5.5, the trends are all pointing towards the Over.
The Stars are 5-0-2 to the Over in their last seven home games, while the Bolts are 5-0 O/U in their previous five road contests. The Over has also gone 17-6-4 in the last 27 meetings in the head-to-head.
Even with 2019 Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov sidelined for the entire season, the Lightning are dripping with scoring talent, leading the league in goals and ranking second on the power play. With the Over paying out at +125, we're even more inclined to bet it.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (+125)
Lightning vs Stars betting card
- Tampa Bay ML (-165)
- Over 5.5 (+125)
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