If the Eastern Conference final between the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders were a boxing match, the Isles would be Rocky Balboa. And I’m talking about the Rocky from the original movie, not Rocky V, which I continue to pretend was never made.
As the NHL betting world has witnessed in this series, the Bolts are clearly the superior team, and they proved it again in Game 4 with a dominating 4-1 victory.
Here are our best NHL picks and predictions for Tuesday night’s Game 5 in Edmonton, with the puck scheduled to drop at 8:00 ET. Either the Isles will have one more punch to throw, or they’ll bow out and eventually start training for a future date with a Russian powerhouse.
New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting preview
Starting Goalies
Islanders: Semyon Varlamov – playoffs – 10-6, 2.30 GAA, .914 SV%
Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy - playoffs – 13-4, 1.93 GAA, .930 SV%
If only Varlamov could get that 12 seconds back. Back-to-back tallies by the Lightning during that span in the second period proved to be the Islanders’ eventual undoing. New York has been routinely outshot by the Lightning in this series — not entirely surprising — but Varlamov has done an admirable job considering Tampa’s offensive talent.
Vasilevskiy gave one away to Brock Nelson in that critical second period, but then immediately reverted to his fantastic playoff form, making 26 saves and picking up his playoff-leading 13th victory in the bubble.
Injuries
Islanders: Casey Cizikas C (Out), Tom Kuhnhackl LW (Out)
Lightning: Brayden Point C (Probable), Jan Rutta D (Out), Steven Stamkos C (Out)
Get the latest NHL injury updates.
Betting Trend to Know
The Islanders are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Islanders vs. Lightning.
Islanders vs Lightning NHL odds movement
UPDATE 7:45 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Shortly before faceoff, PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said the moneyline is at Lightning -175/Islanders +145, with 71 percent of tickets and 79 percent of handle on Tampa Bay. The total is at 5 (Over -140), and the public is definitely on the Over, which is attracting 89 percent of bets and 76 percent of money.
UPDATE 6:15 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Less than two hours before the puck drops, BetMGM has the Lightning at -176, after opening at -170 and reaching -180 a little earlier. The Islanders are +150 underdogs, and it's two-way action, with 57 percent of tickets on New York and 56 percent of money on Tampa Bay. The total recently moved from 5 to 5.5, with 79 percent of bets and 86 percent of dollars on the Over. The Lightning are a heavy puckline play laying 1.5 goals, attracting 76 percent of bets and 89 percent of money.
UPDATE 3:15 P.M. ET TUESDAY: DraftKings Sportsbook opened Game 5 at Tampa Bay -186/New York +160 and stretched to -195/+165 before closing in to -177/+150. Still, the Lightning are attracting 72 percent of bets/62 percent of cash on the moneyline, and they're even more popular on the puckline, laying 1.5 goals (73 percent of bets/83 percent of money). On the total, bettors like Over 5.5 by a 2/1 margin in tickets and money.
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The Lightning (-170) can close out the series Tuesday, but early moneyline action at FanDuel Sportsbook is two-way with a lean toward the Islanders (+145). New York is attracting 52 percent of bets and 56 percent of money through Monday afternoon.
On the puckline, Tampa Bay (-1.5) is getting 82 percent of tickets, but just 59 percent of dollars. The total of 5.5 is getting two-way action, with 55 percent of bets on the Over and 55 percent of money on the Under.
Moneyline Pick
I was impressed by the Islanders’ resolve in winning Game 3 of this series, after that last-second heartbreaker in Game 2. And while Isles Head Coach Barry Trotz has clearly gotten the most of this bunch, they just seem outclassed here.
Tampa’s top line was in peak form in Game 4, with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Ondrej Palat registering six points between them. Point left Sunday’s game in the third period after reaggravating his hamstring, but that appeared to be a precautionary measure more than anything else. The Lightning have won seven straight games with Point in the lineup, and with him on Tuesday I think they win in regulation and advance to their first Stanley Cup final since 2015.
PREDICTION: Lightning three-way ML (-105)
Over/Under Pick
Alex Killorn returning for the Lightning in Game 4 added yet another offensive threat to help overwhelm New York’s defense. All four of Tampa’s lines have dominated possession, and nine out of the last 13 games between these two teams have hit at least five goals.
PREDICTION: Over 5 (-140)
Prop pick
The Lightning have averaged 4.25 goals per game in this series, though that number is skewed by their eight-goal explosion in Game 1. That said, their lowest offensive output against the Islanders was a two-goal performance in Game 2, so I won’t hesitate laying the juice on the Bolts continuing to light the lamp.
PREDICTION: Lightning team total Over 2.5 (-155)
Islanders vs Lightning Betting Card
- Lightning three-way ML (-105)
- Over 5 (-140)
- Lightning team total Over 2.5 (-155)
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