Islanders vs Golden Knights Picks and Predictions: Neither Side Is Scary On Offense

A pair of clubs with high expectations — and underwhelming starts — cap off NHL betting action for Sunday night when the New York Islanders visit the Vegas Golden Knights.

Vegas has been ravaged by injuries has lost three straight in ugly fashion, yet is installed as a home favorite tonight against a New York squad that is playing the second leg of a back-to-back and is in the midst of an absurd road trip.

Here are our best free NHL picks and predictions for Islanders vs. Golden Knights on Sunday, October 24.

Islanders vs Golden Knights odds

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Islanders vs Golden Knights picks

• Islanders ML (+105)
• Under 5.5 (-105)

Picks made on 10/24/2021 at 12:14 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Islanders vs Golden Knights game info

• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Sunday, October 24, 2021
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ATTSN-RM, MSG+

Islanders vs Golden Knights betting preview

Injuries

Islanders: Semyon Varlamov G (Out).
Golden Knights: Alec Martinez D (Questionable), Max Pacioretty LW (Out), Mark Stone RW (Out), Alex Tuch RW (Out), Zach Whitecloud D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Islanders vs Golden Knights head-to-head record (2018-2020)

Islanders: 1-3, 7 goals for.
Golden Knights: 3-0-1, 10 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in the Islanders' last seven games on 0 days rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs. Golden Knights.

Islanders vs Golden Knights picks and predictions

Islanders ML (+105)

We mentioned that the Islanders are on an absurd road trip — how else would you describe opening the season with 13 straight road contests. That's the reality for New York, as it waits for construction of its brand-new UBS Arena to be finished.

Tonight will make game No. 6 of this 13-contest adventure, and it's been a mixed bad so far for the Isles. Their three losses have come against teams that are a combined 12-2-0, while their two wins — including last night's 3-0 shutout of Arizona — have come against teams yet to win a game (0-8).

So, the Islanders have beaten up bad teams and struggled against the elite — what does that portend for a matchup with Vegas, which has a Stanley Cup Final and two conference final appearances in its three-year existence?

Well, normally we'd classify the Knights as an elite squad, but early injuries (notably Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, and Alex Tuch) have decimated their forward depth — resulting in less puck possession, less offensive output, and a strain on the defense that they are struggling to overcome.

Vegas has been outscored 14-6 in three games since Pacioretty and Stone went down with injuries, with a 3.04 expected goal against per 60 minutes (second-worst in NHL) at even strength, along with 14.15 high-danger chances against per 60 (third-worst) and an ugly 6.25 shooting percent at 5-v-5.

The Islanders haven't exactly been a juggernaut analytics-wise, having posted a Corsi For Percentage (which measures puck control and shot generation) below 46 percent in four of their first five games and generating the fifth-fewest high-danger chances per 60 minutes at even strength, but New York had been dealing with various injuries early on — but now has the full complement of skaters at its disposal.

That is something the Knights can't say. Considering NYI is healthier and getting plus money against a Vegas team that just doesn't look scary, we'll back the Isles on Sunday night. 

Under 5.5 (-105)

Yes, Vegas has been giving up goals aplenty recently in their last three games, but Edmonton and St. Louis are Nos. 1 and 2 in the league in scoring, while Los Angeles is in the middle in the pack — while the Islanders are in the bottom third and have only topped three goals once. Combine the Islanders' lack of scoring threat with Vegas' now-toothless attack and even strength action may not yield much action. 

But the power plays will surely do damage, right? Wrong.

Vegas currently has an ugly 72.7 percent penalty-kill efficiency, the seventh-worst mark in the NHL, but New York's power play is clicking at a whopping 14.3-percent rate and the Isles have drawn the sixth-fewest penalties in the league. Not to be outdone, however, Vegas has drawn the second-fewest man-advantage chances and is currently the only team yet to score a power-play goal (0 for 9).

Simply put, these teams just don't threaten to score much, in any scenario. Barry Trotz' clubs have always hung their hats on defense, and considering his Islanders are playing on a back-to-back, it wouldn't surprise us to see them try to muck this game up and slog their way to through this game — and Vegas be more than happy to do the same.

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