A lot can change in a month. The last time these teams squared off, both sides were trying to avoid falling into the cellar of the Metropolitan Division, but boy have the Washington Capitals done a 180 to turn their season around.
Don't get me wrong, the Philadelphia Flyers are still awful and will likely remain that way for the second half of the season, but Washington has posted a 13-2-2 record since December 5.
With more and more players returning to health in the away side's lineup, what is the true ceiling for this Caps lineup? Find out in our NHL betting picks and predictions for the Capitals vs. Flyers on January 11.
Capitals vs Flyers best odds
Capitals vs Flyers picks and predictions
The last time these teams met on December 7, Washington improved its season record against the Flyers to 2-0 after a 4-1 road win. With the Capitals as hot as they are, there are plenty of ways to tail them in this matchup, so let's hone in on the puck line.
The defensive effort was always there for Washington, as it tried to make up for all the injuries to its forwards, but the offense is finally starting to catch up. With so many missing bodies in November, the Caps scraped together 2.64 goals per game in 14 outings. December? That number skyrocketed up to 4.00 gpg, a monumental jump.
Alex Ovechkin led the way with 13 goals last month, and now that big-time players such as Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, and Nicklas Backstrom are back in the fold, this offense's ceiling could potentially be sky-high.
In net, Darcy Kuemper is expected to get the nod after posting his league-leading fourth shutout in his last outing. However, even if Kuemper gets the night off, Washington has a great contingency plan in Charlie Lindgren. The 29-year-old netminder has been a pleasant surprise this year, posting an 11-5-2 record with a 2.59 GAA and .912 SV%.
Looking at Philly, it's put together a very solid 10-game stretch with six wins. That includes a shutout victory in its last outing against Buffalo. With that said, the Capitals are still by far the better team on paper and they'll show that tonight.
The Flyers' offense doesn't have what it takes to keep up with Washington's big guns, and their xGF of 75.04 at 5v5 shows they are right on pace with their 76 goals scored at even strength. They've put together a respectable stretch, but the Caps are on a different level.
Washington's scored 91 goals at 5v5, and its power play, which operates at a 22.1% success rate, should find success against a penalty kill that gets scored on 75.6% of the time. Philadelphia will be able to keep things close in the early going, but the Caps' offense will outmuscle it in the end.
My best bet: Capitals -1.5 (+145 at bet365)
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Capitals vs Flyers moneyline analysis
Since I'm going with the Capitals' puck line as my best bet, this section will be pretty straightforward. Washington opened up around -175 on the moneyline and hovers around that number at just about every book. That price is much too steep for my pockets, hence why I elected for the puck line.
The Capitals are 2-0 against Philly up to this point, and 6-2-1 against Metro Divison opponents overall. As for the Flyers, their division record stands at 4-7-4. Washington has also been a straight-up force since late November, producing a 16-7 record over the last 23 games.
As for home/away splits, Philadelphia is a mediocre 8-10-1 at Wells Fargo this season while Washington has been a respectable 10-8-3 away from Capital One.
I'm all in on Washington in this game. If you're willing to pay the juice on the moneyline then be my guest, but I'll more than happily bank on the boys in red to win by two or more.
Capitals vs Flyers Over/Under analysis
Like the previous meeting, this game's total opened up at 6.0 and has stayed there. This number makes perfect sense, considering both teams are coming off shutout victories, and both meetings between these two this season finished Under.
The only difference is how much more improved Washington's offense has become. The Caps scored over a goal per game more from November to December and are the healthiest they've been all season. The question is, will you get a Washington outing like we saw against Montreal last month (9-2 win), or one like its last game (1-0)?
This team has shown it can win in several ways and has played to an 18-24-1 O/U mark, while Philly's is 19-20-2 in favor of Unders. This could go either way so I'll just avoid the total altogether and stick with my side bet thank you very much.
Capitals vs Flyers betting trend to know
The Capitals are 23-20 ATS this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs Flyers.
Capitals vs Flyers game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 11, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS Washington, NBCS PA |
