Stop me if you heard this before, but the Washington Capitals will hit the road shorthanded, with captain Alexander Ovechkin falling victim to this team's slew of injuries.
Their opponent — the Colorado Avalanche — have also dealt with their fair share of injuries thus far, but a certain superstar that returned earlier in the month for Colorado has been on a tear since coming back.
With plenty of ways to attack this game, read ahead to find out my best bet in my NHL betting picks and predictions for the Capitals vs. Avalanche on January 24.
Capitals vs Avalanche best odds
Capitals vs Avalanche picks and predictions
Let's not beat around the bush here. Nathan MacKinnon has been a man on a mission since returning on December 31, totaling 17 points in 11 games. However, it's not his points props, or his anytime goal market I'm looking at — it's his shots on goal total that has caught my eye.
In 34 games thus far, Nate is averaging 5.47 shots per game, but since returning from injury, that number has leaped to six per game. MacKinnon has been firing on all cylinders and his lofty shot total of 4.5 isn't big enough to scare me away.
He's eclipsed tonight's total in seven of his last 11 outings, including 17 shots on net in his last two. MacKinnon also logs plenty of ice time, putting in the second-most work by Colorado forwards with first-line time along with PP1 opportunities.
Something else I like to look at when discussing shots on goal markets is how many shots the opposing team gives up. The Capitals rank 10th in the league in shots allowed (30.1) but don't let that scare you off.
Of the 27 shots the Avalanche took in their last game against Seattle, MacKinnon had 10 of them. Even if Washington can hold the Avs below their season average of 32.8 per game, there's a good chance it won't stop "Nate the Great" from firing away.
There is definitely some juice toward the Over of this total but it's for good reason. MacKinnon is an unstoppable force and it's hard to see his hot streak stopping during a home game where Colorado will try to extend its winning streak to six games. Drink that juice and take the Over.
My best bet: MacKinnon Over 4.5 shots (-128)
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Capitals vs Avalanche moneyline analysis
The Avalanche opened this cross-conference matchup as -151 favorites, with some money on Washington moving the line down to -140 as of Monday morning. This line could fluctuate again depending on the status of Ovechkin, who is listed as day-to-day, so you may want to wait and see his status before laying any money on the Caps.
Colorado has won five straight games, moving it to just a point behind Minnesota for third place in the Central. This is a hungry team that has been the healthiest it's been all season, and there's hope that Cale Makar could return tonight.
Meanwhile, the Capitals have begun to stall after an incredible month of December, posting a 4-5-1 record over their last 10. With Washington struggling and the Avs on fire, I would lean towards the home team, but I'm going to steer clear of any side bets.
Capitals vs Avalanche Over/Under analysis
The total for this game opened up at 6.0 and has stayed that way at most books, with the Over pulling in plus money. A couple of expensive 5.5s have also appeared across the board, but you're better off playing the Under on the 6.0 if you're leaning toward that way.
The Avs have been one of the most profitable teams to the Under this year, with an O/U record of 16-27-2. Washington has also been profitable that way, going 21-26-2. These are two very capable defenses who had to adopt a more defensive-minded approach with all the injuries to forwards.
The Under seems like the play here, based on not only trends but the possibility of Ovechkin missing his second game in a row. Ovi leads his team in points with 52, with Evgeny Kuznetsov in second with just 40.
Just like the side, I wouldn't make any play on this until I know the status of Ovechkin, but if he isn't good to go, then the Under makes the most sense.
Capitals vs Avalanche betting trend to know
Nathan MacKinnon has eclipsed 4.5 goals in seven of his last 11 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs Avalanche.
Capitals vs Avalanche game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 24, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Washington, Altitude |
