The Montreal Canadiens have ripped off four straight playoff wins, and because of it, find themselves in the second round with a 1-0 series lead over the Winnipeg Jets.
Game 1 ended on a sour note after Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele took a match penalty after charging Montreal’s Jake Evans, who later needed to be stretchered off the ice. Scheifele will miss the next four games due to suspension, which is a big blow to the Winnipeg offense.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Montreal Canadiens vs Winnipeg Jets for Friday, June 4.
Canadiens vs Jets game info
• Location: Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg, MB
• Date: Friday, June 4, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, Sportsnet
Canadiens vs Jets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonAs of 5 p.m. ET game day, William Hill US made just one move on Game 2 of this series, from Thursday's opener of Winnipeg -120 to -115 this morning. Contrary to the shortened number, the favored Jets are attracting 62 percent of moneyline bets and 85 percent of moneyline cash. "We had a real good decision in Game 1, we needed the Canadiens pretty good because of all the Jets money," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "We’re a little high on the Jets right now. But I think due to the fact that Montreal is rolling and [Mark Scheifele] got suspended, that will slow down any Winnipeg flurry of action." The total saw a minor price adjustment, from 5.5 (Under -130) to 5.5 (Under -135), with the Over drawing 54 percent of bets/56 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameCanadiens vs Jets series odds
Canadiens: -213
Jets: +175
Canadiens vs Jets betting preview
Injuries
Canadiens: Jake Evans F (out), Jonathan Drouin F (out), Tomas Tatar F (questionable), Artturi Lehkonen F (questionable).
Jets: Mark Scheifele F (out), Dylan DeMelo D (questionable), Paul Stastny F (questionable), Bryan Little F (out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The underdog is 5-0 in the last five meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Jets.
Moneyline pick
Even with the Jets fully rested and Montreal coming off an emotional Game 7 win in Toronto, it was the Canadiens who came out with authority to open Game 1 on Wednesday. Since their four-game winning streak began, the Habs’ M.O. has been to start with more intensity than their opponents and, because of their quick jump, they hit the first intermission with a 3-1 lead in Game 1.
Montreal played comfortably with a two-goal lead for nearly 46 minutes on Wednesday and held the Jets’ Top 3 lines to an xgoal percentage of under 50. Now the Jets will have to get things done without their regular-season point leader in Scheifele, and could be without center Paul Stastny (17-plus minutes per game in the regular season) and defenseman Dylan DeMelo. Both Stastny and DeMelo missed Thursday’s skate and are more doubtful than probable heading into Friday.
Reigning Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck looked like a goalie who hadn’t played in over a week in Game 1. The Jets’ netminder allowed four goals — two medium-danger and two high-danger goals — despite seeing just 23 total scoring chances from the Canadiens. Winnipeg themselves struggled to create quality opportunities and had just 18 scoring chances in total, which included three failed power plays. Winnipeg lost almost every aspect of Game 1 and now will have to go without their best offensive player and likely some key role players as well.
This should be a perfect spot to fade a team that is overachieving (Montreal), but Carey Price is not a goalie we like betting against. His numbers were above average in the first round but his ability to make timely saves and psychologically frustrate opposing offenses is 80-grade. Defensively, Price only saw a total of 11 medium and high-danger chances and, uncharacteristically, gave up two low-danger goals in Game 1. If bettors think Hellebuyck can improve in Game 2, Price also has a little room to be even better.
Montreal is a difficult team to game plan against as its best player is its goalie. The Canadiens play great match-up hockey and showed that even without the last change, they can shut down the Jets’ Top-2 lines. The onus is on the Jets to adjust to the defensive style of the Habs, and until they show they can generate more offense, we can’t get behind the home team, even with the odds discount.
PREDICTION: Montreal ML (-105)
Over/Under pick
Game 1 of the series was a heavily bet Under game that had bettors ripping up their tickets midway through the third period. But despite the eight-goal output, there weren’t a ton of quality chances at even strength and both goalies could have played better.
In total, there were 3.69 expected goals at 5-on-5 with Winnipeg managing just 1.49. Adam Lowry potted a shorthanded goal in the first, while the final two goals were scored with a pulled goalie — one by each team. There was a stretch in this game of over 32 minutes without a goal. Wednesday’s 5-3 game could be what prospective Under bettors need heading into Game 2.
Game 1 closed with a total of 5.5 priced at -140 to the Under, and hit 5 on a select group of books. Game 2’s total opened at 5.5 priced at -127 to the Under. If Wednesday’s game had been a low-scoring affair, it wouldn’t have surprised us to see an opening total of 5 for Game 2. But, thanks to some average games from two of the league's best goalies and a trio of uncommon goal types in Game 1, we’re getting another 5.5 and at a better price than the opener.
With all the garbage play that concluded Game 1, Friday’s match will be a tightly called game by the officials as they will want to crack down on extracurriculars after the Scheifele hit. This may seem like an opportunistic time to get power plays, but the truth is that the referees have no problem taking two players for offsetting penalties in these situations.
With a better price than Game 1, Winnipeg playing without its leading scorer and both goalies looking to rebound, we can’t say no to the Under on Friday.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (-129)
Canadiens vs Jets betting card
- Montreal ML (-105)
- Under 5.5 (-129)
Picks made on 6/3/2021 at 4:30 a.m. ET
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