Canadiens vs Golden Knights Game 5 Picks and Predictions: Stick with the 'Dog

Vegas enters tonight's pivotal Game 5 as a heavy -250 home favorite. Montreal continues to be a massive underdog despite the hot play of Carey Price and the series tied 2-2. Find out who we like to take the lead in our Golden Knights vs. Canadiens picks.

Posted: Jun 22, 2021 10:36 AM ET Updated: Jun 22, 2021 6:45 PM ET Est Time: 4 min
Carey Price Montreal Canadiens NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Vegas Golden Knights host the Montreal Canadiens at T-Mobile Arena for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup semifinals on Tuesday night.

This has been a very tight battle, with the series knotted at 2-2 and the last two contests going into overtime. But the odds are anything but close with NHL betting lines opening with the Knights as massive -250 favorites at home tonight. 

Can the Habs once again beat the odds? We let you know what we think with our best free Canadiens vs. Golden Knights picks and predictions for June 22, with the puck dropping at 9 p.m. ET. 

Canadiens vs Golden Knights game info

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Tuesday, June 22, 2021
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET

Canadiens vs Golden Knights odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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NHL sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

The Golden Knights opened -250 late Sunday night at BetMGM Nevada, spent a few hours today at -255, then this afternoon returned to -250, where the moneyline stands at 6:45 p.m. ET. Ticket count is almost dead even, and 60 percent of money is on Vegas for Game 5. The total is stable at 5 (Over -135) on a very close ticket count, and although money is 10/1 on the Over, the pot on the total is pretty small at this point.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Canadiens vs Golden Knights series odds

Canadiens: +235
Golden Knights: -305

Canadiens vs Golden Knights betting preview


Canadiens: Tomas Tatar LW (Questionable), Jake Evans C (Questionable), Jonathan Drouin LW (Out).
Golden Knights: Chandler Stephenson C (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Canadiens are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Golden Knights.

Moneyline pick

The Golden Knights have been near the top of the NHL futures betting board all year and wrapped up the regular season with the highest point percentage (.732) and best goal differential (plus-67) in the league.  

Montreal had a much different road to get to this point. The Canadiens finished the regular season with the 18th-best point percentage (.527) and 19th-best goal differential (minus-9) despite playing in what was widely considered the worst division in the league. After predictably falling behind 3-1 in the first round against the Maple Leafs, the Canadiens caught fire and won eight games in a row to shock Toronto and sweep the Jets.

On paper, the Knights are clearly the superior team. But games aren't won on paper and the Canadiens' seven-time All-Star Carey Price has proven that he can keep them in contests they have no business being in. 

While the Knights completely outplayed the Habs skaters in Game 3, Price carried them into overtime, where Josh Anderson slotted a goal after a Marc-Andre Fleury miscue behind the net. That mistake proved costly enough that despite Fleury's track record, Vegas went with Robin Lehner in net for Game 4.

That contest seemed like the opposite of the previous game, as Montreal had a 17-2 edge in high danger chances but Lehner shut the door to lead the Knights to an OT win.

This Montreal team has simply been too good during their postseason run to back the Knights at the steep price of -250, and this series has been too close to consider them on the puckline. While Vegas is incredible at home, the betting value lies with Montreal — especially with a goaltending controversy possibly brewing for the Knights.

PREDICTION: Montreal (+210)

Over/Under pick

The Canadiens have been scoring some timely goals during the playoffs but they are hardly offensive juggernauts, averaging a modest 2.4 goals per game. However, they have been stout on the other end of the ice, leading the league with a 92.9 penalty kill percentage during the postseason and limiting the Knights to just 18 shots in regulation during Game 4.

Montreal's ability to kill penalties is especially important with the Knights struggling on the power play. Vegas ranked just 22nd in the league with the man advantage during the regular season and has been even worse during the playoffs, converting on just 10.3 percent of all opportunities. 

Of course, the key to Montreal's success has been the play of Price, who had mixed results during the regular season but is back to his best, going 10-5 with a 2.09 GAA and .931 save percentage during the playoffs.

The Knights are very strong in net themselves, and if Fleury's confidence isn't shaken by his Game 3 error and subsequent benching, they have the best goaltending duo in the league. They finished the regular season with the fewest goals per game allowed in the NHL (2.18). And that number has barely ticked up in the postseason (2.29) despite surrendering seven goals in an outlier game against the Avs. 

PREDICTION: Under 5 (+110)

Canadiens vs Golden Knights betting card

  • Montreal (+210)
  • Under 5 (+110)

Picks made on 6/22/2021 at 9:45 a.m. ET

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