Two of the East’s playoff teams will jockey for postseason positioning as the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins open a two-game set Sunday afternoon that will have massive playoff seeding implications.
Only five points separate the first-place Penguins and the fourth-place Bruins with 10 games to go in the abbreviated season.
Oddsmakers have this as a pick ‘em with the total opening at 5.5 in NHL betting.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Bruins vs. Penguins for Sunday, April 25 (3:00 p.m. ET).
Bruins vs Penguins odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel pegged this clash a -108 pick 'em Saturday afternoon, moved Boston to -118 this morning, then receded to -110, where the moneyline sits at 1 p.m. ET. The short underdog Penguins are getting 52 percent of tickets, while the favored Bruins are drawing 58 percent of money. The total is down a full goal to 5.5 (Over -120), although ticket count and money are running about 3/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBruins at Penguins betting preview
Injuries
Bruins: Patrice Bergeron F (Questionable), Jarred Tinordi D (Questionable).
Penguins: Evgeni Malkin F (Out), Marc Friedman D (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0-1 in the Penguins’ last five games with 0 days of rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Penguins.
Moneyline pick
Heading into Saturday’s late games, the Pittsburgh Penguins were sitting on top of the East Division. Since March 1, the Pens are 20-6-2 and have climbed from fifth to first. They have done all this damage without forward Geno Malkin, who is practicing but won’t be available for Sunday.
Pittsburgh will face a rested Boston team as the Pens will be on the backend of a back-to-back, after picking up a 4-2 victory over the Devils on Saturday afternoon. The quick turnaround is not a big deal this year, with teams playing condensed schedules. Pittsburgh has been at home since April 20, so the travel has been minimal.
Even with the rest advantage, the Bruins will be in tough against a Pittsburgh team that has picked up 15 of a possible 18 points over its last nine and sports the league’s second-best home record at 19-3-2.
Boston embarrassed the Penguins last time out and potted seven goals — all against goalie Casey DeSmith. Luckily for DeSmith, he played yesterday meaning Boston will likely face Tristan Jarry. Jarry is 20-11 SU on the year and has solid numbers against the Bruins in two games this year — 2.60 GAA and a .919 SV percentage.
The Bruins had won six straight games until a 6-4 loss to the Sabres on Friday. We’re suckers for betting against teams who are coming off a loss after riding a decent winning streak.
Boston goalie Tuukka Rask was pulled in that loss to Buffalo and was making just his fourth start after missing over two weeks. Going back even further, Rask has made just seven starts since February 28, as injuries have kept him out of the lineup.
Boston could also be without No. 1 center, Patrice Bergeron. The versatile pivot took a shot off his foot on Thursday and missed Friday’s game. The centerman is second on the team in points and plays big roles on both the power-play and penalty-kill. His absence would be a huge advantage for the Pens.
With playoff seeding on the line and a season series that has seen the Under hit five times in six games, we’re taking the home team with what oddsmakers have as a coin flip.
PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 3-way ML (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Penguins and Bruins have seen plenty of each other this season, with the Under going 5-1 across the six matchups. We can also bet that both coaches won’t want a repeat of the last meeting that finished 7-5.
Boston sits as one of the more profitable Under teams in the league at 18-26 O/U and is the only playoff team with more than 25 Under wins. If Bergeron does sit, which may be smart to get him ready for the playoffs, it would have a huge impact on the Bruins scoring which is so reliant on the top line. Sure, the addition of Taylor Hall has improved the scoring depth, but Bergeron is arguably the most important skater on the B’s.
The Penguins have played 10 straight games against non-playoff teams and Sunday’s intensity could go a long way as this could be a potential first round series. The Under is in better shape with Jarry in net, as well. Jarry has strung together some outstanding starts and has allowed two or fewer goals in five of his last six games.
Looking at special teams, the Bruins are just 6-for-40 with the man advantage this month, but do own the league’s second-best PK. While the Penguins have been hot on the PP this month, they have been stacking goals against sub-500 teams.
This is a close one for us, but we prefer the Under and may need to dodge an empty netter to get it. We think Sunday's game will have a playoff atmosphere and the Under is usually the best bet for playoff hockey.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (+100)
Bruins vs Penguins betting card
- Pittsburgh 3-way ML (-110)
- Under 5.5 (+100)
Picks made on 4/24/2021 at 7:20 p.m. ET
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