Today's NFL Picks
The Vikings will get All-Pro safety Harrison Smith back, as well as second-round rookie corner Andrew Booth Jr., who has yet to play this season. The strength of this Minnesota defense is in the secondary — a big advantage against the Saints, who convert third downs at 33% and sit in the Bottom 5 in DVOA offense in third/fourth and long situations.
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 18 hrs, 55 min ago.
After a career day in Week 3, Olave finds himself in considerably less ideal circumstances with Dalton under center. Olave's route tree hasn't exactly expanded in the pros, with the large majority of his work still coming on the perimeter and deep. Dalton, in contrast to Winston, is a passer who targets the short and intermediate areas, and the middle of the field, relentlessly.
Alistair Corp - Pick Made 10 hrs, 44 min ago.
The Saints are going to need a tertiary piece to step up. Enter TE Juwan Johnson. Johnson's had a modest start to the season, with six catches for 83 yards but there are some promising underlying metrics. Before a 49% route participation last week, Johnson had run a route on 70% of the Saints' dropbacks and earned 12 targets. With a receiving yards line at just 20.5, Johnson doesn't need much at all to go Over. A route participation rate around 70% and six targets, with New Orleans' injuries, is really all we will need.
Alistair Corp - Pick Made 10 hrs, 41 min ago.
In Cincinnati, Dalton made regular use of Gio Bernard, despite the back's part-time role. From 2013, Bernard's rookie season, to 2019, Dalton's last with the Bengals, Bernard averaged 2.97 catches per game despite never playing more than 60% of the offense's snaps in a single season. That is great news for a running back in Kamara who has been massively underutilized in the young season. He may be limited by a rib injury still but even not playing a full snap count, one of the NFL's best weapons will go Over 3.5 catches.
Alistair Corp - Pick Made 10 hrs, 40 min ago.
In lieu of Deshaun Watson's suspension and the implication that Jacoby Brissett would be the Browns' starting quarterback for their first 11 games, expectations were most certainly managed when it came to Cleveland's offense. But through three games, Brissett and company have managed to turn some heads.
Shawn Wronka - Pick Made 1 day, 15 hrs, 39 min ago.
Last Sunday was about as unkind of conditions as Diggs could expect this year yet, he still hauled in seven passes for 74 yards. Diggs' receiving yards total sits at 79.5 and it's difficult to make a case for this not going Over. We'll have game script in our favor, with this sure to be a back-and-forth war. We have a fine matchup, with Baltimore in the middle of the league in pass defense DVOA and 21st in pass defense EPA. And, above all else, we have the NFL's most devastating offense, quarterback, and QB-WR connection on our side.
Alistair Corp - Pick Made 1 day, 15 hrs, 6 min ago.
The Bills' pass rate over expectation of 14.3% is over 3% higher than the next closest team in Kansas City. Their backfield, as a whole, has totaled just 49 carries through three weeks. As if a small share of the offense wasn't hard enough on Singletary, he's not doing much with it. His hideous Week 3 line was an extension of his 2022 as a whole, where he's run for 80 yards on 23 carries — a 3.48 per carry mark — but has accumulated 35 of those 80 yards on three carries.
Alistair Corp - Pick Made 1 day, 15 hrs, 5 min ago.
The former Buckeye saw only two targets but did run a route on 58.6% of Lamar Jackson's dropbacks, which is a sustainable and excellent rate. With a promising role in the passing game and a clear runway in the backfield — in Dobbins' return, he played one fewer snap than Justice Hill and got the bulk of the carries — Dobbins will clear his modest scrimmage yards total.
Alistair Corp - Pick Made 1 day, 15 hrs, 4 min ago.
Andrews has been a target hog on this Baltimore offense but has a tough matchup as Buffalo has traditionally contained opposing tight ends, with Matt Milano being one of the best coverage linebackers in football. Bateman will also get to face an injured Buffalo secondary that has its starting corner and safety limited at practice this week.
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 18 hrs, 41 min ago.
Bateman leads the league in yards after the catch/reception at 14.9, which is 3.0 yards more than the next receiver. He hasn’t been a target hog early, but with the Bills clogging up the run (7th in EPA/rush), playing tough vs. opposing TEs, and thin in the secondary, Bateman has a favorable matchup in a high-total game.
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 18 hrs, 14 min ago.
The Dallas Cowboys lead the league in sacks and sit third in quarterback pressures through three weeks. This Sunday, they face the most sacked signal-caller in football, Carson Wentz, who took nine(!) sacks in Week 3.
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 18 hrs, 12 min ago.
Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence will have a juicy matchup on Sunday against a Washington offensive line that ranks third-worst in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate metric, which has led to Carson Wentz taking a league-leading 15 sacks. Wentz is actually tied for that distinction with Joe Burrow, who the Cowboys sacked six times in their Week 2 win.
Shawn Wronka - Pick Made 1 day, 15 hrs, 51 min ago.
Lions' cornerback Jeff Okudah has improved this season but might be matched up against the bigger DK Metcalf, and Detroit's other young starting corner Amani Oruwariye has regressed with a woeful 29.5 coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus. The Lions also starting safety Tracy Walker to a season-ending injury in Week 3. Expect Smith to lock on to Lockett early and often in this one, and take the Over 5.5 on Lockett's receptions total.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 1 day, 13 hrs, 4 min ago.
The Chargers have have the most difficult schedule amid injuries, playing twice in-division vs. Las Vegas and KC, then a very good Jacksonville team, and they are 0.6 yards per play better than Houston through three weeks. This number should be 7. Want to get Adam's picks before the line moves? Join the Telegram Channel now.
Adam Chernoff - Pick Made 1 day, 14 hrs, 39 min ago.
This is the breakout game for Austin Ekeler on the ground this week. His total has come down five yards from his mark the first three weeks, and with the coach wanting him more involved — and the opponent setting up for it — this is a great spot for Ekeler. Want to get Adam's picks before the line moves? Join the Telegram Channel now.
Adam Chernoff - Pick Made 1 day, 10 hrs, 59 min ago.
Star running back Derrick Henry has not been his usual self, averaging only 3.6 yards per carry, compared to his career average of 4.8. Even without the presence of Leonard, the Colts have boasted the best run-defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per carry (2.6 per attempt). With the likely return of Leonard and the strong mismatch the Colts' defense holds against this Titans offense, my best bet is hitting the Under on the Titans team total.
Jeremy Jones - Pick Made 1 day, 9 hrs, 7 min ago.
The likely absence of the Giants' best run-stopper, Leonard Williams, will go a long way too if Chicago continues to insist on running the ball. The DL for NYG allowed Pollard/Elliott to run for 178 yards on Monday without him and ranks 29th overall against the run through three weeks — the easiest run defense for Chicago this season. Want to get Adam's picks before the line moves? Join the Telegram Channel now.
Adam Chernoff - Pick Made 2 days, 11 hrs, 50 min ago.
The Bears haven’t had much success at stopping the run in 2022, as they’ve allowed 157 rushing yards per game through three contests, the second-worst mark in the NFL. Barkley doesn’t have to split carries with an established backup, and should get plenty of handoffs from Jones with windy weather in the forecast.
Robert Criscola - Pick Made 1 day, 15 hrs, 48 min ago.
Jacksonville looks like the type of team that could “Eagle” the Eagles, with a dynamic rushing game setting up easy second and third downs while chewing up the TOP (second overall, 34:35), and a passing attack that’s accurate underneath with plenty of short-yardage weapons — carving up a Philly zone that wants to protect against the long ball.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 3 days, 8 hrs, 57 min ago.
Kirk has started 126 of his total 198 snaps in the slot, but Pederson’s dynamic attack always keeps opponents guessing, and he’ll move his favorite new receiver all over the place to exploit mismatches in coverage. Kirk is making the most of it, posting 14.8 yards per reception, and is a threat to catch and run for big gains as he sits tied for 12th in yards after the catch (113).
Jason Logan - Pick Made 1 day, 18 hrs, 31 min ago.
It would make a lot of sense for the Jets to ease Wilson back into the offense on Sunday, particularly against a Steelers' defense that can harass quarterbacks through both its pass rush and in coverage. That could mean more reliance on the running game, as well as giving Wilson safe and easy reads to gain confidence in his first outing of the year. While Wilson could definitely find the end zone once on Sunday, the +185 odds on this prop bet are way too good to pass up.
Ed Scimia - Pick Made 1 day, 10 hrs, 22 min ago.
Through three weeks, rookie running back Breece Hall is rushing to a 5.3 yards per carry clip while also contributing in the passing game with 13 catches for 100 yards. His snap share is growing, as he had 51% off the backfield snaps last week, which was a season-high.
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 18 hrs, 16 min ago.
Baker Mayfield is a step down in QB competition for the Cardinals. A big step down, like falling off a cliff, especially when you factor in just how bad Baker is against the blitz. Mayfield is notoriously unstable under pressure and has been even worse in 2022, owning a passer rating of just 62.6 and completing less than 46% of his throws when blitzed.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 1 day, 18 hrs, 21 min ago.
The Cardinals kicked off 2022 with the hardest three-game slate in the league: Chiefs, Raiders, and Rams. And honestly, a 1-2 SU mark may be higher than my expectations at the time. The lookahead line for this game was Arizona -2.5 in summer, but after some bad defensive showings and injury issues, the oddsmakers have flipped this spread with Carolina giving almost a field goal at home.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 3 days, 8 hrs, 52 min ago.
The Patriots weren't expected to have a great offense this season (even with Jones at the helm), but their defense has also regressed and currently ranks 26th in success rate with a defense DVOA rating that ranks 21st in the league. I'm laying the points with the Packers at home.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 11 hrs, 35 min ago.
It took a few weeks longer than some may have expected, after a summer of hype, but rookie receiver Romeo Doubs showed up in a big way for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers last week. After playing a bit-part role in the first two games, Doubs ran a route on 34 of 36 Rodgers dropbacks and earned eight targets, catching all eight for 73 yards. This is a horrendously shallow Patriots defense, and Rodgers is going to carve up a unit that is in disarray. In the process, Doubs' growing role and connection with Rodgers will be on full display, as the rookie goes Over a low total.
Alistair Corp - Pick Made 1 day, 13 hrs, 46 min ago.
The game script, with the Packers favored by 9.5 points, will play into our favor here but the matchup is nice too, with the Pats' run defense leaving a lot to be desired early in the year. New England's 25th in rushing defense EPA and 29th in DVOA, as a shallow front and slow-footed linebacker corps has combined to be exactly what you'd expect. Dillon isn't an overly efficient runner but at 52.5 yards, the volume that will come in an uncompetitive game will help him hit the Over and I'm happily taking it for both his yards and carries (12.5).
Alistair Corp - Pick Made 1 day, 13 hrs, 43 min ago.
In Week 2, Stevenson ran a route on 60% of Mac Jones' dropbacks, seeing two targets, then had his route participation jump up to 66% in Week 3 as he caught four passes for 28 yards. There has always been a quality role for the pass-catching back in New England's backfield, and Stevenson has now made it his own. Yet, Stevenson's receiving yards total is at 13.5, a total he more than doubled a week ago, and less than half of the per-game production Brandon Bolden — New England's special-teamer-turned-third-down-back — had last season.
Alistair Corp - Pick Made 1 day, 13 hrs, 43 min ago.
Say what you want about Russell Wilson and the offense — which looked alive on that game-winning drive Sunday night — but this Denver defense is no joke. The lookahead line for this AFC West war was set at a pick’em in the summer. After the events of the past three weeks, books are saying the Raiders are as many as three points better than the Broncos?
Jason Logan - Pick Made 3 days, 8 hrs, 50 min ago.
Evans' receiving yards total for Week 4 is sitting as low as 66.5 yards, which he's gone Over in four of his last five outings going back to 2021. The lone Under came against NOLA in Week 2 when he was tossed early into the fourth quarter, leaving with 61 yards – just shy of his prop total of 65.5.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 1 day, 16 hrs, 41 min ago.
Heading into Week 4, this is still an elite Tampa Bay defense which is the reason why the team is 2-1 while supporting a sputtering offense. Todd Bowles’ defense has five interceptions already this season, which includes one off of Aaron Rodgers and at least one per game.
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 13 hrs, 40 min ago.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has seen at least four targets in back-to-back weeks and has seen 12 targets to McKinnon’s seven, but McKinnon ran more routes than CEH in Week 3 and had the reins of the two-minute offense. Because of the better output from CEH, bettors are getting a great number on McKinnon’s receiving total at 15.5 — five yards shorter than CEH’s.
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 13 hrs, 38 min ago.
Instead of team prop to score the longest field goal, I’m hitting the Under 46.5 on the game’s longest field goal. Tampa’s Ryan Succop had a rough season from 40-plus yards last season (7-for-11) and has just four attempts at 50-plus yards over the last four seasons. Andy Reid isn’t afraid to keep his offense on the field when inside the 50 and if Butker sits, I can’t see them attempting a long field goal with whoever is kicking. If Butker plays and isn’t 100% healthy, going for it on 4th and three on the 35 might be a better option
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 1 day, 13 hrs, 36 min ago.
Garoppolo completed just 16 of his 30 passes vs. the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and with the snail’s pace that this 49ers team is running at in 2022, a high-volume game might not be in the cards for the quarterback Monday night. Additionally, with how good this San Francisco defense has been (five touchdowns allowed through three games), Garoppolo and the offense won’t be staring down multi-score deficits at home as the favorite, which will also keep the pace slow.
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 10 hrs, 31 min ago.
The main argument here is the rushing opportunities. Even with an injured backfield, Samuel is getting just four to six carries a game. He needed a 51-yard run with four carries for the Over in Week 2 and had a 27-yard trot in Week 1. Banking on these long runs is not profitable week to week as a 30-plus yard run can pay around +750 for an RB1.
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 10 hrs, 29 min ago.
With a rushing total of 40.5 yards, Akers would just need 3.3 yards per carry over the span of 12 rushes. I think is more of his floor than his ceiling. Sean McVay had no worries about running at this 49ers’ defense in the NFC Championship game, and had 23 rushes from his RBs (13 from Akers for 48 yards). They also had 26 RB rushes vs. the 49ers in Week 18 last season.
Josh Inglis - Pick Made 10 hrs, 27 min ago.
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