Patriots vs Steelers Week 2 Props: An Ascending Tight End Shines in Three Rivers Rock Fight

Two vestiges of the AFC of old will meet in Week 2, as the 0-1 New England Patriots travel to face the 1-0 Pittsburgh Steelers. 

New England couldn't have feared a worse opening day, losing 20-7 to Miami while its clown car offensive coaching staff appeared equal parts clueless and uninspiring. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, turned the page from Ben Roethlisberger's hefty chapter to a new era, with Mitch Trubisky guiding it to a divisional win over Cincinnati.

With one of the lowest totals on the NFL betting board this week, there isn't going to be fireworks in Pittsburgh Sunday — but that doesn't mean there isn't value in the NFL player props market, and we break it down with our Patriots vs. Steelers prop picks. 

Patriots vs Steelers prop picks

• Freiermuth Over 36.5 receiving yards
• Stevenson Over 12.5 receiving yards
• Harris Under 70.5 scrimmage yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Patriots vs Steelers Week 2 props

Muth the needle 

Much like fellow rookie Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth benefitted from Ben Roethlisberger’s waning arm strength and contact avoidance last year as he became a reliable safety blanket underneath for the Stone-Age Pony. However, unlike Harris, Freiermuth’s receiving numbers appeared sustainable, as the tight end was impressive independent of the situation with the Steelers.

That certainly appeared to be the case in Week 1, with Mitch Trubisky looking for and connecting with Freiermuth consistently. The former Nittany Lion finished the marathon win over the Bengals with five catches for 75 yards. 

Encouragingly, he also garnered a team-high target share, at 27%, and was thrown to on 34.5% of routes run — which is Davante Adams, the NFL's target-share-king, territory. That will surely get lower with a greater sample size but steady production should remain the expectation.

That will certainly be the case in this matchup against the Patriots. Despite Bill Belichick understanding the importance of hybrid defenders as well as anyone, New England’s defense is shockingly unathletic and unimpressive at the second level — and banged-up, too, with Ja'Whaun Bentley and Adrian Phillips, a box safety who’s as important as any defender on the roster, limited in practice this week.

Despite a great role in his offense and a favorable matchup this week, Freiermuth’s receiving yards total is sitting at just 36.5 yards. That’s a total he has gone Over in seven of his previous 12 games, and one he’ll have no trouble topping this week. 

Pat Freiermuth Prop: Over 36.5 receiving yards (-113)

Rham rod

Last week, I put on my spacesuit and helmet, made the long dramatic walk to the Rhamondre rocketship, and strapped in, preparing to go to the moon with the Pats' second-year running back. That little trip barely made it off the ground, with Stevenson playing only 25% of New England's snaps and totaling 25 yards on eight carries, adding two yards on two catches through the air. Ouch. 

We have, however, once again prepared for takeoff. After veteran Ty Montgomery spoiled the party last week and swallowed up the passing down snaps, it's Stevenson's time, with Montgomery on injured reserve with a knee injury. 

While Stevenson drew praise as a prospect, and then as a rookie, for his ability as a runner, Belichick sounded ready to cut him loose as the passing down back complimenting his pass pro and play as a receiver, saying, "Rhamondre's done a really good job improving his pass game skills, starting with blitz pickup and protection. He's got good hands, catching the ball's never been an issue."

Ultimately, with a receiving yards total of just 12.5 on the board this week, this comes down to opportunity — regardless of one's opinion of Stevenson. Last year, Brandon Bolden averaged 30.3 receiving yards in the 13 games in which he played more than 20% of snaps. In Week 1, Montgomery caught three passes for 15 yards before leaving with an injury, while Damien Harris added two catches and 10 yards through the air.

There's production there for tailbacks in the passing game and this week, Stevenson will gobble it up. 

Rhamondre Stevenson Prop: Over 12.5 receiving yards (-110)

That evil woman, Liz Frank

There were a couple of reasons for skepticism around Najee Harris ahead of Week 1, and both played out as feared.

The first was Harris's role in the passing game, which was sure to plummet without Roethlisberger under center. Sure enough, the former Bama back caught two passes for three yards in Week 1.

The second was a lisfranc injury which Harris dealt with during training camp. A foot injury for a skill position player is never great but especially a lisfranc, which is famously a lingering injury. And, sure enough, Harris left Pittsburgh's win over the Bengals with an injury to that same foot and has been limited in practice this week as a result.

Yet, Harris's scrimmage yards prop for Week 2 is set at 70.5, and in a fade of the tailback, it's a much safer play than his rushing yards total of 51.5. Through nearly every lens, I love the Under here.

Pittsburgh's dreadful offensive line was a concern before the season and was brutal in Week 1, as Harris ran for 23 yards on 10 carries — a line which is even more hideous when considering he had an 11-yard run. 

The massive dropoff in the passing game was anticipated and played out, with Harris's two catches for three yards a far cry from last year's per-game averages of 4.3 and 27.4. It's a small sample size, but it's also worth noting that his target share fell 10% as the Steelers transitioned from Roethlisberger to Trubisky.

Then there's the foot injury. Harris couldn't make it through the first game of the season and the impact of this injury has already stretched beyond a month — why should there be any expectation it heals in the heat of the season?

Until Harris proves any of these things — an ability to create behind a poor O-line, play a decent role in the passing game, and that he's actually recovered from his foot injury — I see no reason to back Harris. Fade the tailback on Sunday with the Under on his scrimmage yards. 

Najee Harris Prop: Under 70.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)

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