Pop quiz: What NFL quarterback was second in the league in passing yards and completions, third in completion percentage, eighth in touchdowns, and has a juicy matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this Saturday?
If you guessed Justin Herbert, you win my everlasting respect and adulation... and probably want to read on as I give my favorite player out of the numerous Justin Herbert props that provide value during the first prime-time game of the Wild Card weekend.
If there's one thing that makes a bettor happy, it's when other (smart) bettors also like the same guys you do. My colleague Rohit Ponnaiya is keying in on L.A.'s top wide receiver amongst his best Chargers vs. Jaguars props, while Jason Logan is also on the Herbie train with his Chargers vs. Jaguars picks and predictions, and though my free NFL picks aren't going to steal his thunder... we are kinda going to share it.
Justin Herbert prop pick and same-game parlay
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Justin Herbert best bet
Did you pass that pop quiz above? I mean, it was pretty easy, but it's meant to highlight a key point — Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback... and he's going against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that he should be able to pick apart.
The Jags allow the 10th-most opponent completions per game (22.6) this season and have conceded 26+ completions just four times, but consider this: of those other 13 games...
- Four of those games came against teams that ran for 154 or more yards (41.3 carries per game average) — the Los Angeles Chargers are 29th in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards per game.
- Six of those games came against Matt Ryan, Davis Mills (twice), the husk of Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson (in terrible weather), and Joshua Dobbs — all very, very, bad quarterbacks this season.
So that leaves one game each against middle-of-the-pack Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill, then a Week 3 demolishing of... this same Justin Herbert, who had a season-low 55.6% completion rate, banged-up ribs, and no Keenan Allen.
And he still registered 25 completions.
Fast forward to Saturday, and Herbie is healthy and has his favorite target at his disposal. There's no Mike Williams, but Austin Ekeler averages six catches per game out of the backfield and Herbert overall averaged 28.7 completions per game in the 15 contests up until the Bolts clinched a playoff spot (as the final two games of the season really held little value).
Over their last eight games, the Jaguars allowed opposing QBs to connect at a 65.6% rate — but remove matchups with inaccurate passers in Lamar Jackson, Zach Wilson, and Mills, and that opponent completion percentage skyrockets to 72.3%.
Considering Herbert is also likely to post a completion rate more in line with his season average (67%), he should be able to pick apart a Jags pass defense that has struggled to slow down even competent passing attacks.
The 25.5 completion total is also one that he topped 10 times in his 15 meaningful games, and I think he makes it 11 by going over his total in this weekend's meaningful contest.
Prop: Justin Herbert Over 25.5 completions (-125)
Justin Herbert SGP
Herbert Over 1.4 pass TDs
Herbert 20+ completions
Herbert 255+ pass yards
Here I'm actually just building upon my best bet (and Jason's best bet)... but using some milestone props to make it easier to achieve!
Herbert's completions total is 25.5, but using his passing milestone prop, we bring it down to just 20 completions needed — a threshold he reached in every game this season (his low was 21 completions, twice).
As for his yards? The current line is 279.5 yards, but again I'm going to drop it down about 25 yards to 255+, a feat that he accomplished 11 times this year (all when something was at stake) and well below his per-game average of 278.8 (283.5 in the first 15 games).
And for good measure, we're adding Herbie to get at least two passing scores — a reasonable possibility considering we expect a pass-heavy game — and the end result is betting on an elite quarterback to have a pretty average game... and getting plus money for it.
