Davante Adams TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 14

Who knew that when you trade massive draft capital and give $140 million to one offensive player, giving him as many touches per game as possible would be good for your team?

Certainly not Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels... until recently, when he started force-feeding the ball to megastar wide receiver Davante Adams — and the Raiders' offense has picked up its play.

So for my TNF spotlight this week, I'm going to follow suit and force-feed you Davante Adams props.

Our Raiders vs. Rams betting preview is (rightfully) down on the Rams, whose current NFL odds see them getting nearly a touchdown at home, but my free NFL picks are taking a more positive perspective... and cashing in on LA's misfortune.

Davante Adams TNF prop picks

• Over 88.5 receiving yards
• To score a touchdown
• Longest reception Over 26.5 yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Davante Adams TNF props

Churning out yards

All you need to know about the state of the Los Angeles Rams this season is that they just signed Baker Mayfield yesterday.

You know, the guy who was waived by Carolina in favor of Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker (and before that waived in favor of Jacoby Brissett and a guy who hadn't played in two years) was just signed on a Tuesday — and there's a chance he could actually play two days later.

But this space isn't about the Rams' lost season, or their offense at all — this is about their now-brutal defense getting exposed by arguably the hottest receiver in football.

After a six-week stretch where Adams averaged 8.1 targets, 4.7 receptions, and 61.8 yards per game — topping 10 targets just once and not posting more than 124 yards — Adams has gone off in his last five games, registering at least 11 targets in each contest and averaging 13.4 looks, 8.2 catches and a whopping 132.8 yards per contest.

That includes at least 126 yards in four of those matchups (the exception being a 4/74 effort in a game where the Raiders ran 40 times for 283 yards) and 141+ yards in three of those games.

And in Week 14, he and the Las Vegas Raiders get to feast on a Rams defense that is beaten up (with Aaron Donald and a number of starters likely out) and has been plain bad.

Most recently, the Rams allowed 17 catches and 255 receiving yards to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (8/127 and 9/128, respectively) and have given up 275.3 passing yards per game (on a 70% completion rate) over their last six contests — numbers that would be the second and third-worst in the league for season-long statistics.

This week, Adams is looking at a receiving yards total of 88.5, which would be his second-highest total of the season (after seeing a line of 95.5 yards last week), but he's 8-4 against this total in 2022.

Considering McDaniels seems committed to giving Adams the ball, I see no reason to believe the Rams will slow him down Thursday night. 

Prop: Davante Adams Over 88.5 receiving yards (-114)

Davante does them dirty

Adams' total receptions prop (sitting at plus money for Over 7.5) is tempting, but I'm just a little hesitant because there is a real possibility that, with John Wolford or Baker Mayfield leading the Rams "offense", this game could get out of hand quickly and Las Vegas has a run-heavy game script in the second half — which would be bad for Adams' chances at racking up a ton of catches.

However, the reason I'm still confident in Adams going Over his receiving yards total is that he will likely rip off at least one big chunk play. He torched the Chargers for downfield throws last week, and quarterback Derek Carr has not hesitated to throw the ball down to his No. 1 target whenever he can.

Davante Adams excelled downfield in Week 13, catching 5 of 7 targets traveling 10+ air yards for 147 yards & 2 TD.

Adams has been targeted on 29% of his routes over 10 yards down the field this season, trailing only Tyreek Hill (30%, min. 120 routes).#LACvsLV | #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/XyqCPxZOwe

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 5, 2022

Adams has registered 18 catches of 20+ yards this season, tied for third-most in the NFL, with eight catches of 28+ yards during his five-game outburst, including three 31+ yarders last week.

If you're worried that Adams could struggle in a potential shadow situation against Rams star CB Jalen Ramsey... don't be: Ramsey has been targeted just five times in his last two weeks, but that's only masked a brutal five-game stretch where he's allowed 26 catches on 34 targets (76.5% completion rate) for 303 yards — including a 39-yard reception to Travis Kelce two weeks ago, a 53-yard catch to Chris Olave, and a 25-yarder to DeAndre Hopkins.

And that's the best-case scenario for the Rams coverage matchups.

If it's not Ramsey on the Raiders' main man... we're looking at Derion Kendrick (69.1% completion rate allowed) or Robert Rochell (all of 11 snaps played this year) to try and stop him.

Yeah... Davante is definitely going deep. 

Prop: Davante Adams longest reception Over 26.5 yards (-115)

Adams hits paydirt... again

Adams currently is tied for the NFL lead with 12 receiving touchdowns, including two last week, seven during this recent five-game outburst, and finding the end zone in eight of 12 games this season.

Then we've got the Rams defense, which surrendered three passing touchdowns last week, seven in its last three games, and at least one in six straight contests — after giving up just three passing TDs in its prior five games.

Adams also gets 34% of the Raiders' red-zone targets and 37% of targets inside the 10 (fifth and eighth among all pass catchers), and Las Vegas passes about 63% of the time inside the 20 and throw on nearly 64% of goal-to-go plays. 

I'm just playing the numbers game here — considering he closed at -135 for a score last week, I'm cool with taking him to score again in prime time at a slightly better price.

Prop: Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-125)

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