The curtain falls on the NFL Divisional Round this Sunday night with a showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers.
The Cowboys are road underdogs, so they’ll need Dak Prescott to be at his best if they want to beat a Niners team that’s won 10 in a row. With that in mind, here are my favorite NFL player prop picks for Prescott.
For more, check out our Cowboys vs. 49ers picks and predictions, as well as our Cowboys vs. 49ers props.
Dak Prescott prop pick and same-game parlay
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dak Prescott best bet
The 49ers are tops in the NFL in total defense (300.6 yards allowed per game) and scoring defense (16.3 points allowed per game). Their specialty is stopping the run, as they’ve surrendered only 77.7 yards per game on the ground (second-best in the league) on 3.4 yards per attempt (first in the league).
The Cowboys boast a solid run attack ranked ninth in the NFL, with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard splitting the reps. But this unit may still encounter enough trouble to force Dallas to go to the air more often than it’d like.
The 49ers’ offense could also compel Dak Prescott to pass quite often, as San Francisco has scored an average of 34.6 PPG in seven games with Brock Purdy at the helm.
Prescott closed out the regular season by throwing at least 35 times in four of his last five games. That includes his 41 passes in a Week 17 win over the Titans, who owned the NFL’s best rush defense in the regular year. That game could foreshadow how head coach Mike McCarthy prepares for this one.
Dak went to the air 33 times against the Buccaneers last Monday in a Wild Card game that the Cowboys had in control most of the way. If Dallas is in a dogfight on Sunday night, expect Prescott to pass at least a few more times than he did last week.
Prop: Over 34.5 pass attempts (-106)
Dak Prescott SGP
35+ pass attempts
2+ pass TDs
Over 249.5 passing yards
Prescott looks like a good bet to toss two or more touchdowns in this one, especially if he throws it as often as I anticipate. Excluding the Week 1 game in which he got injured, Dak has tallied multiple passing scores in eight of 10 regular season starts. He followed that up by throwing for a season-best four touchdowns against the Buccaneers last week.
Logically, I like Prescott to get to at least 250 passing yards on the night, a number he reached or surpassed in eight of his last 10 regular season games. He torched Tampa Bay to the tune of 305 passing yards in the Wild Card round.
