We have finally reached the weekend where conference champions will be crowned and Super Bowl 57 berths determined.
Both the Eagles vs. 49ers and the Bengals vs. Chiefs promise to be exciting games, but having some money down can make the contests that much more fascinating.
Take a look at my best NFL parlay picks for the conference championship games, and don't forget to check out our AFC and NFC Conference Championship Round picks and predictions for more insights.
Conference Championship NFL parlay picks
- Eagles ML (-152) + Brown o71.5 receiving yards (-113) = +210
- Bengals +1.5 (-110) + CIN-KC o47.5 (-110) = +264
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Eagles moneyline (-152) + A.J. Brown Over 71.5 rec yds (-113) = +210 at Unibet
Eagles ML (-152)
The Eagles are only 2.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks but paying the extra few cents to get this game down to a coin-flip outcome is desirable.
Philly’s specialty is the ground game, as it ranks fifth with 147.6 rushing yards per match, not including the 268 yards it gained on the Giants in the Divisional Round. The 49ers have the defensive firepower to mitigate that attack, as they rank second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 77.7, but perhaps not stop it entirely.
Jalen Hurts adds an extra dimension to the customary Miles Sanders-led ground game, as he’s just as dangerous with his legs as he is with his arm. Hurts had nine rushes for 34 yards and a touchdown against Big Blue, bringing his season total to 794 rushing yards and 14 scores.
His shoulder looked no worse for wear last week, and he should be ready to exploit San Francisco’s 20th-rated pass defense once it has been made honest. Hurts averaged 8.0 yards per pass this year, so he’s made his dropbacks count.
On the other side of the ball, Brock Purdy may not be ready for the merciless Eagles pass rush, which produced a league-leading 70 sacks this season. They dropped Daniel Jones five times last Saturday. If the Niners are forced to abandon the run game, that could seal their fate.
A.J. Brown Over 71.5 receiving yards (-113)
I don’t trust San Francisco’s pass-stoppers to shut things down on the road, and that means A.J. Brown should have a big day for Philly.
Brown averaged 110.8 receiving yards over the final six weeks of the regular season, highlighted by his 181-yard outing against the Bears in Week 14. He eclipsed 71 yards in five of those six games and missed doing so in the other affair by a mere two yards.
Brown averaged an incredible 17 yards per catch this year, so a modest four-reception day would put him in range to exceed his yardage total. His big-play ability has few equals in the NFL, as he had a grab of at least 26 yards in each of the six games in that aforementioned sample, and in 12 of 17 regular season contests overall.
Bettors shouldn’t put much stock into Brown’s 22-yard performance against New York in the Divisional Round, as his services simply weren’t required due to the Eagles quickly building an insurmountable lead.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: Bengals +1.5 (-110) + CIN vs KC Over 47.5 (-110) = +264 at PointsBet
Bengals +1.5 (-110)
Anyone that was watching the Jaguars-Chiefs game last Saturday had to be cringing when they saw Patrick Mahomes suffer his ankle injury. It required a locker room evaluation and a whole lot of medical tape, but Mahomes was able to finish that Divisional Round tilt.
However, it was clear that the former NFL MVP was playing at a diminished capacity. Mahomes is the engine that drives this Kansas City offense, and if he’s not at full strength, then the Bengals can take advantage.
Cincinnati has made its backers plenty of money recently, as it’s 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with winning records, and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games played in January. The Bengals are also a solid 37-17 ATS in their last 54 road games.
Joe Burrow has had plenty to do with the Bengals’ success, averaging 259.7 yards per game over their current 10-game win streak with a 21:6 touchdown-interception ratio.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, including a backdoor defeat to the Jaguars last Saturday. Cincinnati has had their number lately, winning and covering in each of their last three head-to-head contests dating back to Week 17 of last season.
CIN vs KC Over 47.5 (-110)
The last three tilts between these teams have averaged 55.7 points despite a 1-2 O/U record. An average of 801 total yards of offense in those contests suggests these teams are taking advantage of some serious mismatches.
Ja’Marr Chase is among the many weapons Burrow has in his arsenal, and he’s tallied at least one touchdown in five of his last six overall. The LSU connection can target a susceptible Chiefs defense that’s coughed up 34 passing touchdowns through 18 games.
Mahomes, despite a bad ankle, threw for 115 of his 195 yards in the second half last Saturday. He can ride the rapidly improving Isiah Pacheco into the red zone, where the Chiefs seldom squander points. They’re second in touchdown scoring percentage inside the enemy 20-yard line at 70.4%.
