Week 14 brings us a marquee affair between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers. The Bucs are coming off a big comeback win over the Saints last week, and the 49ers are feeling good as winners of their last five.
In my NFL player props for Buccaneers vs. 49ers, I'm backing a Bucs star receiver to get back in a groove and fading the 49ers' passing offense.
Also, make sure to check out Ashley Anderson's full Buccaneers vs. 49ers betting preview.
Buccaneers vs 49ers prop picks
- Evans Over 49.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Kittle Under 31.5 receiving yards (-117)
- Purdy Under 31.5 passing attempts (-120)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Buccaneers vs 49ers Week 14 props
Evans bounces back
Consistency and Mike Evans haven't gone together in 2022, as the Bucs receiver has only surpassed 100+ receiving yards two times this season. To add insult to injury, Evans has just three receiving touchdowns and has been a non-factor in Tampa's offense for the last four games.
A large part of this is due to the fact that Bucs' offense, in general, has taken a massive step back. Even when they are having success, Tom Brady is playing it conservatively, handing the ball off to his running backs more.
Luckily for Evans, it doesn't mean he's not necessarily getting open.
Yet another example where Evans gets open and Brady elects to check it down. Leverett doesn't have a great rep here, but it's probably good enough if Brady can just step into his throw by moving up in the pocket. pic.twitter.com/XxCQKwxyGC
— Evan Closky (@ECloskyWTSP) December 7, 2022
Evans was only targeted four times last week but still managed to eclipse his current Week 14 total of 49.5 receiving yards. A total this low seems like quite the overreaction, and I'm expecting Tampa to play catch-up for the majority of the contest. This will force Brady to stretch the field and connect with his best deep threat.
Even in a down season, Evans has gone Over 49.5 receiving yards in eight of 11 games this season. Look for the star WR to have his looks doubled and cash the Over for us on Sunday.
Mike Evans Prop: Over 49.5 receiving yards (-114)
No skittles for Kittle
Since making his season debut against the Broncos in Week 3, George Kittle has had seven games of being kept Under 50 yards receiving.
Factor in Jimmy Garoppolo's season-ending injury last week vs. Miami, and the Pro Bowl tight end is now missing the quarterback who he's had the most chemistry with throughout his career.
When Brock Purdy replaced Jimmy G early in the first quarter last week, the former Iowa State product barely looked Kittle's way the rest of the game.
#49ers Brock Purdy threw the ball 37 times vs Dolphins.
— Steph Sanchez (@Steph49K) December 8, 2022
His target shares:
Deebo Samuel 27%
Christian McCaffrey 24%
Brandon Aiyuk 19%
George Kittle 5%
To go along with a low target-share, Kittle is now tasked with going up against All-Pro linebacker Lavonte David, who has a superb Pro Football Focus grade of 88.8 in pass coverage this season.
A short number like 31.5 may make you feel a little queasy as a bettor fading a star tight end. However, Kittle just hasn't been an important factor in the 49ers' offense this season and has always been more productive when Garoppolo is at the helm.
George Kittle Prop: Under 31.5 receiving yards (-117)
49ers keep the ball out of Purdy's hands
Brock Purdy did a pretty nice job of taking over for Jimmy G last week. The former "Mr. Irrelevant" completed 25/37 passes for 210 yards and two TDs while only turning the ball over once.
That came against a Dolphins defense that ranks 25th in the NFL in points allowed per game. This time around, Purdy will be tasked with producing against a Bucs' defensive unit that has been exceptional against the pass.
Tampa currently ranks seventh in passing yards allowed per game (195.3). The Bucs have seriously regressed against the run this year, as they were the best team in stopping the ground game last season and now rank 18th against it in 2022. This works to our advantage as Kyle Shanahan will most likely feature a heavy run-offense to take the pressure off of Purdy.
Take Purdy to be a game manager for the majority of the contest, keeping his passing attempts Under the listed total.
Brock Purdy Prop: Under 31.5 passing attempts (-120)
