It’s conference championship weekend for college football, and there are a handful of games with real national title ramifications. The Pac-12 and Big 12 championships, in particular, could potentially determine who gets into the College Football Playoff next month.
But those are far from the only games on the slate this weekend. With that in mind, I’m targeting some of the other conference championships that are often overlooked by fans and bettors alike.
Read on to find out where I’m putting my money this weekend in my best college football parlay picks for Week 14.
Week 14 college football parlay picks
- Coastal Carolina +8.5 (-110) + North Carolina +7.5 (-105) = +272
- UCF moneyline (+155) + Ohio moneyline (+106) = +425
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Coastal Carolina +8.5 (-110) + North Carolina +7.5 (-105) = +272 at DraftKings
Coastal Carolina +8.5 (-110)
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have been one of the better small school stories of the 2022 season, and they were even — briefly — ranked before suffering a devastating 47-7 loss to the James Madison Dukes to wrap up their regular season.
The Chanticleers still finished up the season with a 9-2 record, and now face the Troy Trojans (10-2) in the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday. Troy comes in on a nine-game winning streak after early losses to the Mississippi Rebels and Appalachian State Mountaineers.
The Trojans are a formidable team, particularly on defense. Troy is allowing just 16.8 points per game this season, ranking it among the Top 10 schools in the country. The Trojans have held their last seven opponents fewer than 20 points, and even Mississippi only managed to get to 28.
On the other hand, the Trojans simply don’t score many points. Twice during its nine-game winning streak, Troy scored only 10 points in squeaking out wins. Coastal Carolina isn’t a great defensive team, but it isn’t quite a sieve, allowing 28.7 points per game.
Troy will likely win this game, but it will do so on the back of its stellar defense. That means there won’t be a lot of points, and that 8.5-point spread looks awfully big for a team that sometimes barely scores that many points on its own.
North Carolina +7.5 (-105)
It’s hard to imagine the ACC Championship being largely irrelevant on a national scale, but that’s exactly the situation we find it in after the No. 10 Clemson Tigers lost to the South Carolina Gamecocks last Saturday. With Clemson no longer in College Football Playoff contention, Saturday’s game between the Tigers and the No. 24-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels is now on the back burner for most college football fans.
Clemson hasn’t exactly been a dominant team at any point this season. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons took the Tigers to overtime, and Clemson also scored one-possession wins over the Syracuse Orange and Florida State Seminoles earlier in the season. This is not a vintage Dabo Swinney machine; instead, the Tigers have put together a 10-win season despite their own struggles.
North Carolina (9-3) has similarly played a lot of close games, especially in their ACC schedule. UNC has six one-possession wins of its own this year. The Tar Heels have also seen their record tarnished over the last two weeks in close losses to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the North Carolina State Wolfpack.
There’s no reason to expect anything other than another close game in the ACC Championship. Clemson is the better and more talented team, especially on defense. Both teams can score a lot of points, so this will likely be a shootout that ends with Clemson getting one more score against a UNC defense that is allowing 30.3 points and 442.7 yards per game.
Just like in the Sun Belt Championship, a spread that is over a touchdown is too big given how these teams have played all season. I’m taking the Tar Heels and the points.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: UCF moneyline (+155) + Ohio moneyline (+106) = +425 at FanDuel
UCF moneyline (+155)
The No. 18 Tulane Green Wave (10-2) are playing for the American Athletic Conference title for the first time on Saturday, and they’ll get to host the game in New Orleans. Tulane earned its place in the championship with a 27-24 win over the Cincinnati Bearcats, and has other quality wins on its resume, including an early-season victory over the Kansas State Wildcats, who are now in the Big 12 Championship.
One of Tulane’s two losses this season came to the No. 22 Central Florida Knights (9-3). While UCF won’t be claiming any national championships this year, it's been a solid, under-the-radar team that has notable wins over Cincinnati and Georgia Tech.
In the first game, UCF beat Tulane in New Orleans by a 38-31 final. Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee threw for one touchdown and ran for two more in the win. UCF led from start to finish and held a two-touchdown advantage for most of the second half.
The biggest advantage UCF has in this game is the strength of its rushing attack. The Knights are running for 243.3 yards per game, while Tulane gives up 154.6 yards per game on the ground. Central Florida averages 5.5 yards per carry, a number that ranks among the Top 10 schools in the country.
Tulane may get its revenge on Saturday, but I think UCF deserves to be a slim favorite in this game. The Knights are actually an underdog, which means we can get a great price on Central Florida to win outright. That’s where I’m putting my money as I look for a repeat of the first matchup between these AAC rivals.
Ohio moneyline (-105)
The 7-5 Toledo Rockets will take on the 9-3 Ohio Bobcats in the Mid-American Conference Championship on Saturday. Unlike in some of the other games we’ve talked about above, there are no magical seasons or great storylines behind this game, just two teams looking to win a conference title to cap their year with a championship they can call their own.
Ohio comes into the game on a seven-game winning streak, ripping through its MAC competition. The Bobcats have won six of those seven games by double digits. Their only conference loss came in their first MAC game when they lost 31-24 at the Kent State Golden Flashes.
Toledo, on the other hand, has lost its last two games heading into the postseason. In fact, after starting the conference schedule with three lopsided wins, the Rockets have struggled against MAC competition, going 2-3 over their last five games. The two wins — over the Eastern Michigan Eagles and the Ball State Cardinals — each came by a touchdown or less.
I never read too much into momentum, but these two teams look like they are headed in entirely different directions at this point in the season. Toledo and Ohio share similar underlying numbers on both offense and defense. Both throw the ball better than they run it, and neither has played a strong schedule this season.
With these teams bringing similar talent into Saturday’s game, I can’t ignore the fact that the Bobcats are playing much better football over the last month or so. I’m taking Ohio on the moneyline and hoping to hit two small upsets on Saturday to complete this parlay.
