College football Betting 101: Importance of capping QB changes

College football season is creeping closer and closer, and with that NCAAF bettors are beginning to rev their handicapping engines in preparation for Week 1 and beyond.

In order to help you focus your energy on the most important components of college football capping this summer, we’ve asked some of Covers Experts top handicappers to share what they do when preparing for the NCAA pigskin season.

Part I on this Betting 101 series focuses on handicapping teams with new starting quarterbacks – the most important position on the field when it comes to covering the spread and deciding the Over/Under.

Capping college QBs

Swapping out quarterbacks can be the beginning of a long, long season for some teams. Or it can signal the start of something big, like with Florida State and then-freshman Jameis Winston in 2013.

No one expected the Seminoles’ new QB, taking over for long-time passer and first-round NFL draft pick E.J. Manuel, to lead FSU to the national title as well as become just the second freshman to win the Heisman Trophy. But, the newest NFL No. 1 overall pick did just that.

Much like starting pitchers in baseball, no player in football can make or break your bets like the quarterback, which is why many sharps start their college football prep with those teams undergoing a changing of the guard under center.

There are a few different situations teams can find themselves in when ushering in a fresh-faced No. 1: Standout freshman, promoted backup, transfers, and a bare cupboard.

“Like the NFL, a QB change from one season to the next can be a significant one,” says Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports. “Is it a freshman taking control of the team for the first time, or is it a transfer?

“However, unlike the NFL, a lot of the time a college team won't see a big dropoff in production due to the overall ‘system’. My advice is to look at each quarterback change on its own, and not generalize.”

Here’s an example of some teams going through these new QB situations and how bettors should treat them during the early schedule:

Standout freshmen

Top-tier programs recruit the biggest and best from the high school ranks, and following in the footsteps of Winston at FSU and Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M – two freshman Heisman winners – is Florida Gators redshirt freshman Will Grier.

Reports out of Gainesville say Grier is pushing for the starting job, going head-to-head with Treon Harris, who has had trouble with his accuracy. New head coach Jim McElwain is running a pro-style offense and Grier could have the inside track thanks to his size, passing and pedigree, being a highly-touted recruit and Parade Magazine National Player of the Year.

Florida is a +2,800 long shot to win the SEC, which would pretty much be an automatic spot in the College Football Playoff. It’s unlikely Grier can carry the Gators that far, should he win the starting job, but he is one freshman passer to keep an eye on as the season kicks off.

Promoted backups

Staying in the SEC, the Auburn Tigers bid farewell to quarterback Nick Marshall this offseason, with the departed senior signing on with the New Orleans Saints. That opens the door for junior Jeremy Johnson, who worked behind Marshall the past two season.

Johnson has just two starts and 78 throws to his name with the Tigers but the buzz is building in Auburn. He’s 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, cut from a similar mold of Heisman winners Cam Newton and Jameis Winston, and has a rocket for an arm. Those attributes have NFL scouts already drooling over Johnson, who is listed at +1,500 to win the Heisman - tied with three others as the seventh biggest favorite.

The Tigers can never be counted out in the SEC and enter 2015 at +280 to win the SEC, second only to Alabama.

Transfers

The big transfer news this offseason was Notre Dame QB Everett Golson making the move from South Bend to Tallahassee, looking to pick up what Winston left off. However, despite what he did for the Irish, Golson isn’t guaranteed the top job for the Seminoles.

Another notable transfer that could make waves is former Florida QB Jeff Driskel joining Louisiana Tech. He hasn’t come close to his 2011 achievements the past two seasons, having his career sidetracked by a fibula injury in 2013. He’s a graduate transfer, so he didn’t have to sit a season, and isn’t going through the grinder of SEC defenses every week.

Louisiana Tech was one of the best bets in college football last season, going 11-3 ATS.

Bare cupboards

Sometimes a star quarterback’s departure leaves a massive crater in the depth chart that can’t be filled overnight. This happens more often to smaller schools than power-conference members due to recruiting prowess.

Often times, the team’s offense and entire identity are built around those arms, who usually stay for three, four and five years at these outlining schools. Once they go, programs are forced to start from scratch or rebuild their entire playbook. And if there is no proven QB to take over the No. 1 spot, this transition can be devastating.

Colorado State is undergoing this change – among others – in 2015. Not only is the program under new head coach Mike Bobo, after McElwain left for the Florida job, but the Rams are also reeling after losing star QB Garrett Grayson to the pros.

That leaves CSU with some untested arms under center. Nick Stevens is the front runner but attempted just 25 passes as a redshirt freshman in 2014. He’s being challenged by redshirt freshman Coleman Key, who has the potential to be a standout once he gets his feet wet. And then there’s true freshman J.C. Robles.

Books have Colorado State priced at +1,200 to win the Mountain West Conference, with the Rams win total at 7.5. That may seem like a lofty number with this team taking a major step down at quarterback.

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