Notre Dame vs North Carolina Odds, Picks and Predictions: Love Always Finds a Way

The March Madness runners-up North Carolina Tar Heels would have envisioned the beginning of its season going differently. But, instead, it's been one filled with up-and-downs, and now they'll look to extend a winning streak to two when they welcome the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to Chapel Hill. 

For the Irish? They've had a similar start to the season. They arrive at this game with an 8-7 record, knowing that they'll have to surpass that and then some in 2023 to even sniff an NCAA Tournament bid. They enter this game coming off a loss to Boston College, a game that they led for portions and then let slip away in the dying minutes. 

What's the Best Bet for this ACC tilt? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Notre Dame on Saturday, January 7.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina best odds

Notre Dame vs North Carolina picks and predictions

On the surface, this strikes you as a game that the Tar Heels should roll in. 

They’re a more talented team, and Notre Dame has some obvious defensive efficiencies. The Heels have players like Caleb Love, Armando Bacot, and RJ Davis — North Carolina should be able to seize on that and roll. But at the end of the day? They need to be more consistent to trust to cover a double-digit spread in a conference game. 

That inconsistency is most seen throughout their defense. Sure, it has been great at times. There's that performance they put together against Georgia Tech where the Yellowjackets collected just .87 points per possession, and North Carolina won going away. However, there have been lesser showings, enough to outweigh the positives. Like the one against Virginia Tech —the ACC team that plays the most similar to Notre Dame — where they allowed a whopping 1.16 points per possession and lost by eight points. It all adds to me just not trusting them with a 12.5-point spread. I'm rolling with a player prop Over.

I like this matchup for Caleb Love, and one of those reasons is the situational aspect. Love has struggled lately. He's put back-to-back single-digit scoring efforts together for the first time since December 2021. Generally, when this has happened in his career, he's responded in the next game with a big performance. Earlier this season, he scored 9 points against James Madison, then responded with 23 points against Portland.

I've already mentioned the defensive issues for this Notre Dame team — they are numerous. The most pressing to this matchup is the Irish pick-and-roll defense. It's not been good. It ranks 12th in the ACC from a points-per-possession perspective, allowing .82 PPP when guarding these sets. Does Love perform better against defenses with this issue? The answer is a resounding yes. Just take a brief look at his 20+ point performances against Power Five teams this season:

Love scored 34 points against Alabama; the Tide rank 12th in the SEC in pick-and-roll defense, allowing .74 points per possession.

Love scored 22 points against Ohio State; the Buckeyes rank 11th in the Big Ten in pick-and-roll defense, allowing .84 points per possession.

Love came short of the 20-point mark against Michigan and scored 18 points. The Wolverines? They rank 12th in the Big Ten in pick-and-roll defense, allowing .87 points per possession.

There is an obvious pattern here. Love played Notre Dame just once last season and scored 15 points, barely falling short of this prop. That was against a better Irish team defensively and came when Love didn't have the usage rate that he does now. He's sitting on a significant scoring effort, as you don't keep a player as talented as him down for long. I'm betting on that performance coming today. At least enough to the point that he scores 17 points, but there's a chance he soars over this. 

My best bet: Caleb Love over 16.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)

Notre Dame vs North Carolina spread analysis

This spread crept up this morning and reached the 13-point mark. If I had to take a side, it would be the Irish. I'll do that if it gets over 14.5 in-game. I mentioned at the onset the inconsistency of North Carolina. While that's true for both teams in this matchup, one isn't tasked with covering a double-digit spread. Virginia Tech had so much success against North Carolina because of the struggle to defend spot-up shooters, and the Hokies are built to slice you up. Notre Dame is a milder version of that. Cormac Ryan and Nate Laszewski are two shooters that can be lethal from deep, which is something North Carolina is susceptible to. After all, its spot-up defense ranks 13th in the ACC for a reason.

I will put a half-unit on the Notre Dame Moneyline at +625. This is simply because the Irish have the tools to shoot you out of a gym, and the Tar Heels are more susceptible to that than other teams. If this spread reaches the above mentioned number, I'll grab some of that. Neither of these teams is consistent enough to trust with much confidence, but that means the game will likely be close — even if it shouldn't be.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis

I spent a significant portion speaking about the inconsistency of both of these teams, so I don't want any part of a total here. For what it's worth, my projections set this one around 143.5, which is closely aligned with the 145 total. There's not a ton to say here that has yet to be mentioned. Both offenses are good enough to get this done, and both rank in the Top 50 in efficiency. However, one will likely have an underwhelming performance — we'll need the other to provide some heavy lifting to go Over. I'd rather not put myself in that position. 

The Over has been profitable in games involving North Carolina. Its games have gone that way in its last five overall, including its previous four following a straight-up win.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina betting trend to know

These two teams are a combined 17-1 ATS in their last 18 Saturday games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina game info

Notre Dame vs North Carolina key injuries

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