March Madness betting is officially underway in some mid-major conferences, while others, including the power conferences, wrap up their regular seasons this week. We handicap the NCAA basketball odds for the biggest Top 25 games, as well as give you the need-to-know betting notes for this week’s action on the college hardwood.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS AT PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
Penn State continues its free fall in the Big Ten, losing its third game in the last four outings against Iowa this past weekend. The Nittany Lions, who are 0-4 ATS in that span, have had big issues on offense, scoring just over 62 points per game in this stretch after averaging more than 75 points an outing on the season.
The Spartans are headed in the opposite direction, really finding another gear just before the postseason begins – a telltale sign of solid coaching by Tom Izzo. Michigan State roughed up Maryland 78-66 as a 2-point road underdog on Saturday, earning its third straight victory. The Green and White have been upping their output on offense during this run, posting scores of 78, 78 and 86 points.
Penn State returned guard Myreon Jones to action in the loss to Iowa, limiting him to 25 minutes after missing six games with an illness. He’s scoring close to 14 points per contest this season and could give PSU the scoring bump it needs in a vital game at home versus Michigan State. We see value in the Over in this Big Ten battle.
VILLANOVA WILDCATS AT SETON HALL PIRATES
Villanova found itself behind early against Providence this weekend and couldn’t battle back in a 58-54 loss to the Friars. The Wildcats were ice cold from outside and managed just 18 points in the first half – a significant departure from the program’s season average of 35 points in the opening 20 minutes. Jay Wright will be emphasising a strong start to Wednesday's game at Seton Hall.
The Pirates put up 33.5 points per first half on the year but have increased that early production in recent games. Seton hall is scoring 36 points per first half over its last three, including a 44-point explosion in the opening frame versus Marquette on Saturday.
The last time these Big East rivals met, they totaled only 58 first-half points before scoring 76 in the final 20 minutes of action. We expect the scoring load to shift to the first half Wednesday, giving value to the Over for this derivative total.
DAYTON FLYERS AT RHODE ISLAND RAMS
The No. 3 team in the country is on upset alert Wednesday, when the Flyers visit the Rams in an A-10 showdown. Dayton hasn’t lost since Dec. 21, rolling to 18 straight wins. However, the Flyers have produced just a 9-9 ATS record during that streak, including just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. On top of that, the Flyers could get caught in a letdown spot after clinching the Atlantic 10 regular-season title Friday.
Rhode Island got caught looking ahead to Dayton in a 72-62 loss to Saint Louis as a 6-point favorite Sunday. The Rams’ wheels have wobbled the past month, going just 2-3 SU and ATS in their last five outings. This game is massively important to URI, which sits on the NCAA Tournament bubble in the final week of the season and needs a resume-boosting win to get into the conversation.
While the Rams fell flat in their first matchup with Dayton – an 81-67 thrashing as 11-point road dogs – they traditionally play the Flyers very tight and hold solid value as a motivated home pup versus a team that just clinched the conference crown. We're looking at the points with Rhode Island on Wednesday night.
MID-MAJOR WATCH: NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN (20-10 SU, 19-9 ATS, 14-12 O/U)
The Mean Green have clinched the C-USA title after defeating Western Kentucky 78-72 in overtime this past weekend. North Texas failed to cover the 6.5-point spread versus the Hilltoppers, which was just the ninth time all season the Mean Green didn’t come away with the greenbacks.
That big overtime victory against its toughest conference rival and locking in the No. 1 spot in the upcoming C-USA tournament paves the road for a significant letdown in the final game of the season. The Mean Green travel to Charlotte on Wednesday in a somewhat meaningless contest for North Texas. Beware of backing the Mean Green – one of the best ATS bets in NCAA basketball betting – in the season finale.
| TEAM | ODDS TO WIN |
|---|---|
| KANSAS JAYHAWKS | +700 |
| GONZAGA BULLDOGS | +1,100 |
| BAYLOR BEARS | +1,200 |
| DUKE BLUE DEVILS | +1,600 |
| LOUISVILLE CARDINALS | +1,600 |
| DAYTON FLYERS | +1,600 |
| MARYLAND TERRAPINS | +1,800 |
| KENTUCKY WILDCATS | +2,000 |
| SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS | +2,200 |
| MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS | +2,200 |
| OREGON DUCKS | +2,500 |
| SETON HALL PIRATES | +2,800 |
| ARIZONA WILDCATS | +3,300 |
| CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS | +4,000 |
| VILLANOVA WILDCATS | +4,000 |
| PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS | +4,000 |
| FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES | +4,000 |
| AUBURN TIGERS | +4,000 |
| OHIO STATE BUCKEYES | +4,000 |
| IOWA HAWKEYES | +4,500 |
BETTING TRENDS AND NOTES
• The Kentucky Wildcats continue to cash in for NCAA basketball bettors, covering the spread for the fourth straight game and the seventh time in the past eight showings with Saturday’s 73-66 win over Auburn as 5.5-point home chalk.
Much is being made of UK’s offense during this span, but the Wildcats have been just as impressive on defense, limiting foes to only 65 points per game during those eight outings. Kentucky hosts Tennessee on Tuesday with the Volunteers struggling on offense. The Vols haven’t scored more than 70 points in four straight games and have done so just three times in their 17 games since the New Year.
• The DePaul Blue Demons hope standout forward Paul Reed can return for the final two games of the regular season, including Tuesday’s tilt with Marquette. Reed, who scores 15 points, grabs 11 rebounds and blocks three shots per game, sat out the Blue Demons’ 60-42 loss to Butler on Saturday with a hip pointer.
Reed is garnering a ton of attention from NBA scouts and is listed as questionable for Tuesday. But with this being the final home game for DePaul, he will be extra motivated to play what will likely be his final game inside Wintrust Arena. Bettors should keep a close eye on his status heading into the game.
• A number of small conference tournaments tip off this week, and those tourneys include some of the best NCAA basketball bets this season. North Florida (22-7 ATS) opens the Atlantic Sun tournament versus Jacksonville on Tuesday, Hofstra (22-8 ATS) is the top seed in the CAA tournament starting on the weekend, and South Dakota State (21-8 ATS) is the No. 2 seed facing Purdue Fort Wayne in the Summit League tournament opener on Saturday.
