Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech will duke it out for a spot in the NIT Championship on Saturday, March 27, when the two teams clash at the Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas. The game tips at 3:00 p.m. ET, and it should be intense, as both of these teams play extremely hard, let alone with a spot in the title game on the line.
Will the (Louisiana Tech) Bulldogs make a statement with yet another win over an SEC team? Keep reading our Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech picks and predictions.
Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBetMGM Nevada opened Mississippi State a 1.5-point favorite and is down to pick as of 12:30 p.m. ET. Ticket count is 2/1 on Mississippi State, but money is heavily toward Louisiana Tech, primarily due to one large wager on LaTech in this battle of the Bulldogs. The total is down a point to 135.5, with very few tickets overall, but one sizable play on the Under, so the book needs the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMississippi State Bulldogs vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs betting preview
Injuries
Mississippi State: F Tolu Smith (questionable)
Louisiana Tech: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Louisiana Tech is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games against teams with winning records. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Louisiana Tech.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Louisiana Tech is 28th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (all efficiency stats according to KenPom.com), which is a big part of the reason the team won 23 games this season. However, this squad was a lot better offensively in the second half of the year, and the group was lights out in a win over Western Kentucky in the second round. They shot 61.1 percent from the outside in that victory, and their defense held the Hilltoppers to just 34.8 percent shooting from the floor and 30.0 percent shooting from deep. As long as Louisiana Tech doesn’t go ice cold, the team will have a good chance to win this game, as Mississippi State is miserable offensively.
Ben Howland’s team was able to escape with a 68-67 win over Richmond in the quarterfinals, but there is some real uncertainty surrounding Tolu Smith entering this game. Smith missed the last game because of contact tracing, and he is questionable to play in this one. If he’s out, that would be a massive absence for Mississippi State, as Smith is averaging 12.6 points and 8.5 rebounds per game this season. And even if he does play, it could throw off chemistry a bit, as he will be somewhat rusty and the team just won a game without him.
While Iverson Molinar and D.J. Stewart Jr. are both capable of getting hot, it’s just a tough ask for Mississippi State to find a way to win this one. This should be a close game, but Louisiana Tech’s defense should be the difference-maker.
PREDICTION: Louisiana Tech +1.0 (-110)
Over/Under pick
With the way Louisiana Tech defends, it’s hard to imagine Mississippi State really getting hot in this one. That’s especially true when considering everything that’s on the line in this game. It’s not uncommon for games with big consequences to start with some cold shooting, as the players need to adjust and settle their nerves.
Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech rarely scores a whole lot more than 70 points, so it’s unlikely this group will go scorched earth and ruin the Under. Overall, this seems like the play.
PREDICTION: Under 136.5 (-110)
Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech betting card
- Louisiana Tech +1.0 (-110)
- Under 136.5 (-110)
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