The North Carolina Tar Heels welcome the Miami Hurricanes to Chapel Hill for an ACC showdown on Monday night.
The college basketball betting odds have UNC as a 10-point home favorite, coming off a big road win over rival Duke on Saturday. The 91-87 victory against the Blue Devils was the Tar Heels’ fourth win in their past five outings. Miami enters this week off an overtime loss to Virginia Tech – the Hurricanes’ fifth loss in the past six games.
Get our NCAA basketball free picks and predictions for Miami vs. North Carolina on February 8.
Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Miami: Chris Lykes G (Questionable), Earl Timberlake G (Out)
North Carolina: None
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Hurricanes are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Miami vs. North Carolina.
NCAAB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel pegged North Carolina a 10.5-point home chalk at opening Sunday night, and this morning, the Tar Heels dipped to -9.5, where the line remains as of 4:30 p.m. ET. Miami is landing 64 percent of tickets and 54 percent of money on the spread. The total moved from 139.5 to 141.5, then backed up to 140.5, with ticket count and money running 2/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the Spread (ATS) Pick
If there ever was a letdown spot, North Carolina is looking at it. The Tar Heels haven't had much to celebrate this season, sitting unranked and scrambling for resume wins before the ACC tournament tips off.
North Carolina blew multiple double-digit leads to Duke but was able to squeak out the much-needed tick in the win column. Perhaps the saving grace for UNC bettors in this tricky situational spot Monday is that Miami is also ripe for a letdown after an emotional overtime loss to Virginia Tech.
The Canes have been battling hard without standout guard Chris Lykes and only seven scholarship players available. They fell to the Hokies in an added frame that shouldn’t have been. Virginia Tech tied the game on a buzzer beater to end regulation, although the replay would show the shooter stepped out of bounds. Unfortunately for Jim Larranaga's kids, that portion of the play was not reviewable.
Now, Miami must hit the road where it has struggled to compete. The Hurricanes offense dips to 62.3 points per game away from home while their defensive numbers inflate in hostile territory, allowing 75.5 points to host teams – more than eight points extra per contest. As a result, Miami is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS as a visitor.
Lykes' potential return is something to monitor. He hasn’t played since December 4 due to a severe ankle sprain, but returned to practice this week and was a game-time decision versus VT.
Looking at the Tar Heels, outside of a 50-point shart on the road against a stingy Clemson defense on February 2, this offense has started to find its footing. North Carolina averaged only 69 points over its first four conference games of the year, but since its 67-65 win at Miami (didn't cover as 3.5-point chalk) the Heels have hung an average of 76.85 points on ACC foes – going 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS
PREDICTION: North Carolina -10 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Tar Heels knocked down 10 of their 15 shots from distance en route to 91 points versus the Blue Devils on Saturday. However, outside shooting hasn't been a strong suit for this team in 2020-21 (making just 32 percent of looks from deep).
North Carolina was a combined 13 for 47 from 3-point range in the three outings prior to the Duke game – going 1-2 Over/Under in those efforts - and a replay of that shooting display is unlikely versus Miami.
The Hurricanes have to be conscious about their pace on offense if they're going to survive a full 40 minutes. Due to an ultra-short bench, Miami must rest on offense, which means a methodical pace with the basketball. The Canes are 206th in tempo at KenPom.com and can't afford to get sucked into UNC's high-gear style of play.
Even if Lykes, who averages over 15 points per game, does return, his workload and conditioning could be limited. North Carolina has some very talented on-the-ball defenders to throw at him, and while UNC allows more than 74 points per game it still sits 31st in defensive efficiency (92.9) in the country. The Heels and Canes stayed Under the 140.5-point total in their matchup at Coral Gables on January 5.
PREDICTION: Under 141 (-110)
Miami vs North Carolina Betting Card
- North Carolina -10 (-110)
- Under 141 (-110)
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