Marquette vs UConn Odds, Picks and Predictions: Offenses Set to Fly

On Tuesday night, one of my favorite dark horse teams in college basketball will make the trip to Hartford for a Big East battle. 

The Marquette Golden Eagles are rolling. They've won five straight, climbed into the Top 10 nationally, and have the 12th-highest average scoring margin in the country. They arrive at this game fresh off a win over Butler in which they scored a second-to-last season low in points with 60.

What a strange ride it has been for the UConn Huskies. At points this season, they've looked like the best team in basketball, and at others, you've wondered if they'd make the NCAA Tournament. Instead, they've steadied the ship and won two straight games after a loss to Xavier. 

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Marquette vs. Connecticut. 

Marquette vs UConn best odds

Marquette vs UConn picks and predictions

The Over immediately jumps off the board here. I like UConn at home in this spot, but its play over the last two weeks has lacked so little inspiration that it's hard to back them here with confidence. We're backing points today with our best bet, and the reasons are plentiful. 

The spot here is excellent. These two teams are a combined 14-7 to the Over when they have equal rest as the opponent — like they do here — and are 7-1 to the Over against ranked opponents. There's also the whole deal of Marquette coming off a game where it scored just 60 points.

The only game it scored less than it did on Saturday was against Mississippi State when it put up a season-low of 55 points. So how'd it respond to that? By scoring 84 points against Georgia Tech just two days later.

The matchup for both teams is ideal. Look at Uconn's matchup first. 

At its best, the Huskies want to run their offense through the post with Adama Sanogo and utilize paint touches to create spot-ups for shooters. That would make sense when you also look at the data behind these sets.

Spot-up shooters score .97 points per possession, which is good for fourth best in the Big East, while post-ups score 1.01 points per possession — the second best in the Big East. When these two teams met in mid-January, 158 points were scored despite Sanogo scoring only 10 points. In that game, he only played 19 minutes while battling foul trouble issues.

If he can stay out of foul trouble today, he's well-poised to help more with the Huskies' scoring efforts. It can sometimes be challenging to get post-ups against the Golden Eagles, but it's a definite weakness when you do. They've allowed nearly 60% shooting on post-ups.

It almost feels like Marquette is enough of a reason for this handicap. It scores on everyone at a high clip except apparently Butler. The oddity of that game was that it missed 11 shots at the rim, which I don't see repeating here. I'm projecting just over 70 possessions.

The Eagles have had games with over 70 possessions twice in conference play, and two of those times, they scored over 90 points. There's the situational aspect that I mentioned at the onset, but in general, if this is an up-tempo game like I expect, there should be no reason that Marquette's offense is slowed.

Back points tonight. My projections see an edge, and the situation favors it.

My best bet: Over 147 (-110 at bet365)

Marquette vs UConn spread analysis

I won't have a play on the side here. You can make a strong argument that Uconn needs this game more than Marquette, but as I've spoken about already, I'm struggling to trust it.

You also have the added factor of Shaka Smart being absolute dynamite as an underdog. Since taking over the program in 2021, Smart is 15-7 ATS as an underdog, and since 2022 that number has improved to 4-1. This isn't a game where I'm ready to tempt that trend.

Some other noteworthy trends to look at in this matchup: the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two schools, and Uconn is good at home and has gone 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 home games. 

Marquette vs UConn Over/Under analysis

My numbers set a total of 152.5. A 5-point edge may not seem like a ton, but it's pretty big, especially considering the situational aspects we mentioned. That's why it's my best bet for this game tonight. You can simplify a thought of this handicap by saying in high-tempo games, Marquette scores against nearly everyone. But in addition to that, in high-tempo games, everyone scores against Marquette. 

Marquette vs UConn betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in Marquette's last four games against a team with a winning record. Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. UConn.

Marquette vs UConn game info

Marquette vs UConn key injuries

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