Fans of situational NBA betting are licking their chops when the Milwaukee Bucks play host to the red-hot Washington Wizards on Wednesday.
Milwaukee staked its claim in the East with two wins over Brooklyn this week, including a thrilling comeback victory over the Nets at home Tuesday. Not only does that set the Bucks up for a letdown spot but also a tough schedule pinch, playing for the second straight night against the frenzied pace of the Wizards, who have gone 11-2 SU and ATS in their last 13 games.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Wizards vs. Bucks on May 5.
(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to Wednesday evening's news that Khris Middleton would be out tonight.)
Wizards vs Bucks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonMilwaukee hit TwinSpires' odds board as 6-point chalk and is down to -4 as of 4:15 p.m. ET. The Bucks are taking 62 percent of point-spread tickets, but the underdog Wizards are drawing 64 percent of spread money, including some sharp action. The total moved from 241.5 to 243, with 71 percent of tickets/63 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWizards at Bucks betting preview
Injuries
Wizards: Deni Avdija F (Out), Thomas Bryant C (Out).
Bucks: Jeff Teague G (Questionable), Khris Middleton (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 14-4 in Bucks’ last 18 games playing without rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Bucks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Milwaukee’s two victories over Brooklyn were impressive and push the Bucks to within 1.5 games of the Nets in second, and three games back of Philadelphia in first in the Eastern Conference standings. Milwaukee needed a fourth-quarter surge to beat Brooklyn again, outscoring the Nets 32-24 in the final frame to secure the 124-118 win on Tuesday.
Washington may be the last team you’d want to play coming off a big comeback victory with zero rest in between. The Wizards are griding opponents into the hardwood with their frenetic tempo during this winning run, posting a pace rating of 105.2 over their last 13 games.
That relentless attack puts opponents on their heels, with Washington rocking the second-best transition offense in the NBA, but also forces the entire game to speed up. The Bucks aren’t afraid to drive fast, ranking among the quickest tempos in the league, but are buckling in for a drag race with half a tank of gas.
Any other night Milwaukee would be a headache for the Wiz (having won the previous two meetings in DC), with its sound transition defense and protection in the paint. However, we saw the Bucks slip into a similar situational spot at Atlanta on April 25, falling flat playing the second night of a back-to-back following two big wins over the 76ers.
On the season, Milwaukee owns an average margin of victory of only 2.82 points in their 11 games played on zero rest.
PREDICTION: Washington +6.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Washington has piled up the points during this streak, averaging 125.4 per game in those last 13 efforts. Much of that production has come from converting turnovers and points in the paint, with the Wizards’ transition offense relentlessly attacking the rim.
While the Bucks will be a couple steps slower on Wednesday, they’re still a foil for the Wizards’ game plan. Milwaukee is among the best defenses inside of five feet of the basket and also takes care of the ball, with an average of just over 11 turnovers in its past three contests.
Offensively, Milwaukee takes a few steps back when playing the second game of back-to-backs this season, averaging only 102.18 points for in those games – a sharp decline from its NBA-best scoring average of 119.4.
The Bucks put the burden on the defense in those zero-rest spots, giving up only 99.36 points against over those 11 situations, going 3-8 Over/Under in the second game of back-to-back efforts. The Under trend isn’t just reserved to this season either, with Milwaukee staying Under in 14 of its last 18 games without rest.
PREDICTION: Under 242 (-110)
Player prop pick
Sometimes in sports betting, you just have to stick to what works. And what’s working is taking the Over when it comes to Rui Hachimura’s player point props.
The Wizards’ versatile forward has posted point totals of 27 and 18 points in his last two games, shooting a collective 19 for 30 from the field as well as knocking down five of seven from the foul line.
Hachimura had two solid efforts versus the Bucks already this year, scoring 22 and 29 points in back-to-back losses at home in March, shooting 20 for 36 in those games.
PREDICTION: Rui Hachimura points Over 13.5 (-120)
Wizards vs Bucks betting card
- Washington +6.5 (-110)
- Under 242 (-110)
- Rui Hachimura points Over 13.5 (-120)
Picks made on 5/5/2021 at 9:35 a.m. ET
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