Winners of four of their last five games, the Sacramento Kings are trying to claw their way back into the Western Conference playoff conversation. One of the teams they’ll have to pass to do so is the Golden State Warriors, who will once again be without Steph Curry.
So, with no Curry to cook for the Dubs, it’s the Kings who are favored on the court in this matchup, as slight 2.5-point home chalk. Check out our NBA free picks and predictions for Warriors vs. Kings on Thursday, March 25, with tipoff scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET.
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings betting preview
Injuries
Warriors: Steph Curry PG (Out).
Kings: Jahmi'us Ramsey SG (Questionable), Marvin Bagley III PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in the Warriors' last five games overall and 7-1 in the Kings' last eight overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Kings.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonSacramento hit the DraftKings odds board as a 2.5-point favorite late Wednesday night, moved to -3 at lunch hour today and is at -3.5 as of 7:30 p.m. ET. The Kings are landing 71 percent of bets and 75 percent of money on the spread. The total went from 223.5 to 223 early, then steadily climbed to 227.5, with 60 percent of bets/58 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
The Kings have won four of their last five, going 4-1 ATS, and now sit 4.5 games outside of the Western Conference’s final playoff spot and three games back of the final play-in spot — currently occupied by Golden State. One thing that has improved, and will need to keep improving if the Kings want to make a real push, is the defense. During this five-game stretch, they have allowed 110.8 points per game, down from their season average of 114.5.
On offense, De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton lead the way. Fox is averaging 28 points during this four-game run and is coming off a 37-point performance on 13 of 20 shooting against the Hawks, while Haliburton added 17 points with seven assists.
Meanwhile, the Warriors were in a bit of a slump before Curry went down with an injury and have now lost seven of their last 10 overall, while going 3-7 ATS. Without Curry and his 29 points per game, Golden State has put up 105.7 points per contest, and it’s hard to put faith in a Warriors’ team when you aren’t sure of the performance you will get out of the likes of Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr.
With these teams trending in opposite directions and still no Curry for the Warriors, backing the Kings as short favorites isn’t a bad bet.
PREDICTION: Kings -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Both the Kings and Warriors have been Under darlings recently. While the Kings have been a great Over bet for most of the year, at 26-18 O/U, the improved defense in Sacramento has the Under going 7-1 in their last 10 games.
The Warriors, on the other hand, have been one of the best Under bets in the NBA all season long at 17-27 O/U. That hasn’t changed with Curry out, as they have cashed the Under in all three games without him. Obviously, the Warriors’ scoring without Curry goes way down, but their defense is still solid, ranking sixth in defensive rating and third in opponent field goal percentage.
This should be a close matchup, and while the early money has driven the total up, you can now be eager to jump on the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 226.5 (-110)
Team total pick
The Warriors’ team total really stands out in this game. Yes, the Kings have struggled on defense this year, ranking dead last in defensive rating, but they have improved to a much more respectable 17th over this five-game stretch and now face a team whose best scoring option is arguably Jordan Poole. Even with Curry, they have scored 108 points or fewer in eight of their last 10 games. Taking the Under on their team total seems like a safe bet here.
PREDICTION: Warriors Team Total Under 112.5 (-120)
Warriors vs Kings betting card
- Kings -2.5 (-110)
- Under 226.5 (-110)
- Warriors Team Total Under 112.5 (-120)
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