Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Atlanta's New Star Flexes on Philly

Tonight will see eight NBA teams in action, giving us plenty to work with as far as the day’s best NBA player props. 

For today’s slate, we’re taking a look at the mismatch potential of Atlanta’s newest All-Star guard, Joel Embiid overcoming his early season sluggishness, and the growing limitations of Kyle Lowry’s offensive game. 

Let’s dive into my best NBA player prop picks for November 10.

NBA player props for November 10

• Murray Over 27.5 pts + rebs (-125)
• Embiid Over 28.5 points (-113)
• Lowry Under 12.5 points (+100)

Picks made on 11/10/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Backcourt balance

In many summers, the Atlanta Hawks ponying up three first-round picks and a swap for a 26-year-old All-Star would be the story of the offseason. But, in a summer full of chaotic, all-in trades, Murray’s acquisition went relatively under the radar. 

The fit with Trae Young was not an obvious one in some respects, with Murray a primary ball handler, like his new running mate in Young. Unlike Trae, Murray hasn’t been an elite shooter in his career. Young, for his part, had shown little willingness in the past to work off the ball to the benefit of his teammates.

But so far, the results have been dynamite. The Hawks are blowing opponents off the floor in Murray’s minutes. They’re a +24.3 when Murray is on the court, far and away leading the team.

We saw a lil bit of everything from DJ last night ????

????25 PTS | 11 AST | 8 REB | 3 STL@DejounteMurray x @UPS pic.twitter.com/irY8LjGPQy

— Atlanta Hawks (@ATLHawks) November 8, 2022

Murray is averaging 22.6 points and 6.5 rebounds on a 52.1% effective field goal percentage which, if it holds, would be the highest of his career. He’s also statistically the best rebounding combo guard in the NBA, ranking in the 100th percentile in defensive boards per Cleaning the Glass.

The addition of Murray creates a backcourt bind for opposing defenses. The 76ers, like most teams, only have one quality guard defender in their rotation — De’Anthony Melton. Melton would be a great matchup for Murray, if he weren’t almost assuredly going to be assigned to slowing down the five-alarm fire that is Young anytime he crosses halfcourt. 

That means Murray will either be beating up on Maxey’s thin frame or using his speed advantage against a Sixers forward sliding down a position. Creating a matchup advantage will be as simple as getting Murray the ball.

The Sixers are one of the league’s worst rebounding teams, and they’re a particularly poor defensive matchup for Murray. He should produce on Thursday.

Dejounte Murray Prop: Over 27.5 points and rebounds (-125)

Jo on the go 

Most had Joel Embiid on the shortlist for NBA MVP this season, but the reaction to his play so far has been tepid, and he’s one of the primary reasons that the 76ers have been booed by their own fans already.

There were extenuating circumstances, however. Embiid suffered a plantar fasciitis injury in the offseason, which kept him off his feet and unable to work on his conditioning for large stretches of the summer. He looked a step slow coming into the year because he was, not because he suddenly lost the competitive fire that has made him one of the NBA’s most dominant bigs.

big fella's up to 18 points! ???? pic.twitter.com/V8XtXgCxcx

— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) November 8, 2022

Now that it’s been a few games, Embiid is looking more and more like his old self. He has seen a noticeable change in his shot profile, and it flies in the face of the idea that he’s becoming a more passive player. Embiid is taking 43% of all his shots at the rim, which would be his highest mark in the last four seasons.

That shift has come at the express expense of fewer midrange jumpers and has contributed to one of the highest and-one percentages of his career, as well as a career-best 2-point percentage (55.7%).

Atlanta allows the third-most shot attempts at the rim, preferring to shut out opponent 3-point shooters. That should prove costly against Embiid, who is averaging 31 points per game over his last five.

Joel Embiid Prop: Over 28.5 points (-113)

Kyle cornered

Kyle Lowry has long been an advanced stats darling, dominating the impact metrics, but he’s moving into a different stage of his career as his play has suffered the unforgiving march of Father Time. His role on the Heat is to throw hit-ahead passes and take spot-up 3-pointers, a far cry from the days when you felt his impact on every play.

Kyle is having one of these kinda nights pic.twitter.com/RFFJsLjVqi

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) November 8, 2022

The Hornets have been missing key pieces all season long, but head coach Steve Clifford is still leaving his imprint on the team. They’re taking away some of the best shots in basketball, and shots that Lowy has come to rely on more and more in his Miami tenure. The Hornets allow the ninth fewest threes in the league and the sixth fewest from the corner. 

Whether due to capability or opportunity, Lowry is taking more spot-up threes than at any point in his career. He’s no longer creating shots on his own steam, nor beating his man with burst and taking it all the way to the cup. Lowry would always rather pass than shoot, but now he’s relegated to a more passive playing style when he’s not even able to dictate his own shot.

With the Hornets keyed in on Lowry’s remaining avenue for offense, I’m banking on him having a quiet night.

Kyle Lowry Prop: Under 12.5 points (+100)

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