It’s a slim six-game slate for NBA betting tonight as the season continues to roll to the finish line.
The mixed motivations for these matchups as well as a busy day on the ole injury report makes Tuesday an especially painful day for handicapping hoops.
However, I dig through the NBA odds and give my best NBA player prop picks and predictions for March 28.
NBA player props for March 28
Picks made on 3/28/2023 at 11:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
True or Fultz?
The Orlando Magic appeared to be turning on the tank with a poor start to March but have flipped that script with three straight wins at home. However, the Magic take that streak into Memphis tonight and have a tough time replicating their offense away from home, ranking 29th with less than 109 points per road game.
Guard Markelle Fultz has also seen his scoring efforts dwindle in recent outings, averaging 12.3 points over the past four games. While Fultz has become more of a facilitator with the ball, his shooting has been all over the place.
He was knocking down 55.5% of his shots in the first nine games of March but has since farted out a 42.3% clip from the field in the last four outings. He’s gone a collective 9-for-24 from the floor the past two contest, including an 0-for-4 clip from beyond the arc — mustering twin 10-point efforts for Orlando.
Fultz is averaging 16.8 points over his last 10 games and his points prop for tonight is parked at 15.5 (Under-108). He’s stayed below his projected number in three of his last four appearances and five of his past eight, now facing a much stiffer test in Tennessee tonight.
Memphis throws some tough defenders at the Magic, even with star Ja Morant potentially out of action. The Grizzlies are one of the best defensive clubs in the NBA (No. 2 in defensive rating) and allow just 108.8 points against on their own floor.
Fultz thrives on getting inside for points in the paint, but Memphis allows the fifth-lowest PITP per game in the Association. As mentioned, Fultz been more involved as a passer in past efforts (averaging 7.2 assists the last five games) while fellow guards Gary Harris, Cole Anthony, and the recently returned Jalen Suggs share the scoring.
Markelle Fultz prop: Under 15.5 Points (-108)
Three-J McCollum
The New Orleans Pelicans are gaining momentum at the right time and take a five-game winning streak to San Francisco to face the Warriors tonight.
New Orleans is getting it done on both ends of the floor during this stretch, remaining one of the better defensive clubs in the NBA while also averaging Over 121 points per game in those five outings.
Point guard C.J. McCollum is a big part of that uptick in output, averaging 19.8 points and 5.6 assists in that span. He scored 17 points in just 25 minutes in last night’s blowout win over Portland, doing the bulk of that damage from beyond the arc.
McCollum was 3-for-7 from distance and has knocked down at least three triples in three straight outings and in nine of his last dozen appearances. His 3-point prop for Tuesday is at 2.5 makes (Over -130) and McCollum is on an 8-2 Over run when it comes to his triples totals.
NOLA will again need him to take and make plenty of 3-pointers tonight if it's going to keep pace with a Warriors team that tosses up a ton of looks from long range. Tonight’s game total sits at 234 points, which is on the higher end of Over/Under numbers for New Orleans games.
These Western rivals clashed earlier this month in the Big Easy with a total of 231 points, and McCollum went 3-for-10 from distance with 25 points at home. He also record three triples in each of the first two meetings with Golden State back in November.
C.J. McCollum prop: Over 2.5 made threes (-130)
D.A. for D.C.
The Washington Wizards are running thin to finish of the schedule, playing without Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma against Boston tonight. The Wiz could also be missing Monte Morris and Daniel Gafford, which means there are plenty of touches up for grabs in D.C.
One guy who’s stepped in to take those touches is 6-foot-9 forward Deni Avdija, who has watched his floor time spike the past four games. Avdija has logged 34, 34, 32, and 34 minutes in that span, averaging 16.8 points and 5.5 assists and 9.5 rebounds.
His combo prop on points + rebounds + assists for tonight’s tilt is at 26.5 (Over -109) and Avdija has comfortably gone Over this combo prop in those last four games.
With the stars sidelined, Washington head coach Wes Unseld Jr. is giving his youngsters the green light to play beyond their usual sandbox. Avdija, specifically, is being used in more pick-and-roll sets, which has produced a surge in his assist totals with 28 dimes the past five games.
Washington is a hefty underdog at home but considering the key players missing and Avdija’s recent efforts, he should still log major minutes even if the Celtics run away with it. Expect him to pad the stat sheet against Boston’s bench if this massive spread holds true.
Deni Avdija prop: Over 26.5 PRA (-109)
