The Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers seem destined for a high-scoring shootout at first glance.
But Brooklyn's stars are all hobbled. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are already both sitting out, and James Harden is listed as questionable as well, which has dramatically affected NBA betting prospects.
The question thus becomes "who the hell is going to score for the Nets?" (spoiler: nobody), which will govern our Nets vs. Blazers picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 23.
Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers betting preview
Injuries
Nets: Kevin Durant F (Out), Kyrie Irving PG (Out), James Harden SG (Questionable), Landry Shamet SG (Out).
Trail Blazers: Jusuf Nurkic C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Under is 5-2 in Nets' last 7 games as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Trail Blazers.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonWith Brooklyn shorthanded, this line initially spiked toward Portland, which moved from -2 to -5 overnight at DraftKings. However, the number receded by midmorning to -3.5 and remains there at 7 p.m. ET. The Trail Blazers are taking 58 percent of spread bets and 83 percent of spread cash. The total went from 236 to 236.5, then dipped to the current 231.5, although the Over is drawing 75 percent of bets/60 percent of tickets.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Obviously, this entire game hinges on James Harden's status for tonight. The Nets' dark-horse MVP candidate is listed as questionable with neck soreness, and given that both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are already on a casual day, the odds of Brooklyn forcing the issue with Harden dwindle.
Assuming The Beard also sits tonight, Brooklyn is left with the shallowest roster in the entire NBA. Jeff Green and Joe Harris become its de-facto leaders on offense, and there's no way in hell it can hope to trade blows with a Blazers squad that has CJ McCollum back and has won seven of their past nine games.
Yes, the Blazers are a yucky 3-6 ATS in that same stretch, but the spread here seems like a fair line even with Harden toughing it out. Brooklyn cares a lot more about its stars' long-term health than winning a fairly meaningless game when it's a mortal lock for a homecourt seed in the East. So count on Harden sitting this one out and pounce on a soft line, with Portland's recently poor ATS performances perhaps reflected.
PREDICTION: Portland -4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Times have obviously changed a bit since the Nets' historic Over run earlier in the season. Now that they're possibly without all three of their big guns, all bets are off.
If Durant, Irving and Harden all sit, this game will be a complete wash, and even with Portland's itchy trigger finger and porous defense, Brooklyn will struggle mightily to hold up its end of the total, with a massive risk of this game becoming a blowout and the home team taking its foot off the gas.
The total has been falling all morning, now sitting at 233 since being originally posted at 236.5. Bet it now before it plummets further, but anything above the 228-230 range still feels like a very safe fire.
PREDICTION: Under 233 (-110)
Team total prop pick
With Harden's status in flux (we'd still make a speculative bet that he sits), Brooklyn's team points total is a very vulnerable market for tonight.
Currently sitting at 115.5 Over/Under, the Nets have very little chance of hitting this number if Harden sits, forcing Harris and his 14.6 ppg to lead an offensive charge.
Obviously, the bet becomes far more of a sweat if Harden plays, but merely the good possibility he might not, without very heavy juice, has us loving this Under.
PREDICTION: Brooklyn Under 115.5 (-122)
Nets vs Trail Blazers betting card
- Portland -4 (-110)
- Under 233 (-110)
- Brooklyn Under 115.5 (-122)
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