The Denver Nuggets appear to have woken up. After sputtering for most of the season's first half, last year's Western Conference runners-up have won five in a row.
Tonight, they host the Dallas Mavericks in what figures to be a fairly close NBA betting matchup.
We're breaking down the matchup with our best Mavericks vs. Nuggets free picks and predictions for Saturday, March 13.
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: No injuries to report.
Nuggets: Nikola Jokic (Questionable), JaMychal Green PF (Out), Gary Harris SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Nuggets.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDenver opened as 3-point chalk Friday night at FanDuel, and this line has since shifted significantly, jumping the fence to Dallas -2. Much of that move is likely due to Nuggets star Nikola Jokic (ankle) listed as questionable. As of 7:15 p.m. ET, the Nuggets are taking 65 percent of bets and 59 percent of money on the spread. The total opened at 227, dipped to 225 and is now 225.5, with ticket count 3/1 and money 2/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
There are several similarities between these teams:
Both are 7-3 in their last ten games. Both are picking up the slack after lackluster starts to the season. And both are led by Eastern European maestros that can drop a triple-double on any given night.
The Mavs had a four-game win streak halted by a loss to the OKC Thunder Thursday night, with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis both resting on a back-to-back.
Meanwhile, Denver barely escaped Memphis with a win last night, after a sloppy offensive effort and an extremely nebulous call in the Nuggets' favor on the game-deciding play.
Denver figures to be the more motivated of the two teams, given its recent flat effort and proximity to the West's homecourt echelon. In particular, count on a bounce-back game from Jamal Murray, who was simply unconscious (29 ppg on 56.6 percent shooting) in 11 games prior to an absolute dud last night: three points on 1-for-14 shooting. Yuck.
That Denver still won that game given Murray's disaster bodes well for them here, as does Dallas' lack of burly bodies to keep Nikola Jokic from dominating the glass - Mavs rank 24th in rebounding rate - barring a novel Boban Marjanovic sighting.
Especially with the spread flipping since opening, we'll nab the Nuggets and the points here.
PREDICTION: Denver +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
All trends point to an Under here. But trust that it's a spot to buck them.
The Mavs have hit the Under in six of their past eight games, while Denver's done the same in five of their past seven. But that's a big part of the reason why we're seeing such a low total at 225.
These teams combine to average over 227 ppg, and have a knack for dialing things up, given that neither defends the other very well. Their two previous games this year totaled 230 and 241 points.
The Nuggets also always respond on offense. Denver's failed to score 110 points seven times this season (as they did last night), and averages 122.7 points in the games following those outings.
With Denver looking to rebound from a crappy offensive display, and Doncic and Porzingis both fresh after resting, we can see this game turning into more of a shootout than a defensive grind.
PREDICTION: Over 225 (-110)
First quarter pick
Sometimes you buck the trends, sometimes you lean on them.
The Nuggets are the NBA's third-best first quarter ATS squad, at 23-13 on the season. Meanwhile, the Mavs are the league's fifth-worst in the same market, at just 15-21.
Murray will be hungry and Jokic will be difficult to stop either way, so given the intangible factors, the huge disparity in their first-quarter spread performance, and the half-point insurance on the Nuggets' side, we'll back them to bank a lead out of the gate.
PREDICTION: Denver first quarter +0.5 (-115)
Mavericks vs Nuggets betting card
- Denver +1.5 (-110)
- Over 225 (-110)
- Denver first quarter +0.5 (-115)
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