Not only are the Miami Heat back in the 2020 NBA Finals – they've shaken the Lakers despite missing two important starters.
Jimmy Butler carried the Heat on his back in Sunday's Game 3, erupting for a 40-point triple-double in a historic NBA Finals performance that led Miami to a 115-104 victory over the Western Conference champions to trim the series deficit to 2-1.
And while we don't yet know if point guard Goran Dragic (torn plantar fascia) or center Bam Adebayo (neck strain) will return for Game 4, the Lakers can ill afford to take Miami lightly regardless.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Heat on October 6.
(Editor's Note: Bam Adebayo is planning to return for Game 4 after missing Games 2 and 3. Goran Dragic will not play in Game 4.)
Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat betting preview
NBA Finals Odds to Win Series
Los Angeles: -1,000
Miami: +650
Injuries
Los Angeles: None
Miami: Goran Dragic PG (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 9-3 in Miami's last 12 games following a SU win of 10+ points. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Heat.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The books have lost some of their confidence in Los Angeles, but not much: the Game 4 spread is set at -7.5 after closing at -10.5 and -9.5, respectively, in Games 2 and 3. Of greater concern than the final score of Sunday's contest is the fact that the Heat controlled things for the majority of the game — they led by as many as 14 points while never trailing at any point by more than four.
But regardless of how they played Sunday, the statuses of Dragic and Adebayo will go a long way toward determining how the Heat fare Tuesday. Adebayo is reportedly closer to returning than Dragic, but neither is a slam dunk – and expecting the Heat to be that dominant for a second straight game against a superior Lakers side is simply too much to ask.
The Lakers have followed every misstep in the postseason with a strong retort, rebounding from each of their previous three losses with wins by an average margin of 12.3 points. We like an emphatic bounce-back in Game 4, as well.
PREDICTION: LA Lakers -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Talk about a kick in the stomach for Over bettors: Game 3 of the NBA Finals finished a half-point shy of the total (though you were okay if you snagged the number at 217.5 when it opened.)
We're still confident that the Over is the smart play between these teams more often than not. Even without Adebayo or Dragic, Miami had little trouble converting against a suddenly-porous Lakers defense that allowed Miami to shoot better than 50 percent for the second game in a row. And Los Angeles almost certainly would have fared better on offense had Anthony Davis not wound up in foul trouble for most of the game — he had just 15 points, his second-lowest output of the postseason.
It might not be a slam dunk, but we still like these teams to rise above the number Tuesday.
PREDICTION: Over 218.5 (-110)
First quarter prop pick
The first quarter couldn't have gone much worse for Davis, who committed four turnovers in a 2.5-minute span midway through the frame and picked up his second foul not long after. And even with AD on the sidelines, the Lakers erased an 11-point deficit to trail by just three points after 12 minutes.
The Lakers have been the more dominant first-quarter team save for a seven-minute stretch in Game 3. We're willing to bet on them returning to their strong early-game ways Tuesday.
PREDICTION: LA Lakers 1st Quarter -2.5 (-115)
Lakers vs Heat Betting Card
- LA Lakers -7.5 (-110)
- Over 218.5 (-110)
- LA Lakers 1st Quarter -2.5 (-115)
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